Everyone seems to be on a trajectory to reject the US dollar. India is buying Russian oil for Rupees and Yuan; Brazil and Argentina — two largest economies in Latin America — are discussing a “common currency” for trade; and Putin is talking about BRICS+ creating a currency based on commodities. President Xi’s visit with Saudi and GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) marks the birth of the petroyuan. By 2025, the GCC may be paid in renminbi for all of the oil and gas.
“If less trade is invoiced in US dollars and there is a dwindling recycling of dollar into Treasuries, the “exorbitant privilege” that the dollar holds as the reserve currency could be under assault,” says Credit Suisse’s financial guru Zoltan Pozsar.
Meanwhile, the United States will be spending $800 billion this year on just interest payments on its untenable debt.
U.S. trade deficit for goods will be $1.2 trillion in 2022. Meanwhile, China had a record trade surplus of $877 billion. Which economic model is sustainable?
America’s decline will certainly be quite precipitous globally after its loss of dollar hegemony. The world is at a crossroads. The 500-year-old Western domination — that started with Europeans landing in the Americas — is now coming to an end.
The Ukraine war is all about saving the American world order and extending Pax Americana. The USA is hoping for an escalated proxy war that destroys Russia, which will then be occupied by US military and ruled by pro-US puppets. Repeat of what happened to Europe, Germany, Japan etc. after WW2 or to South Korea a decade later. The only solution for the US to extricate itself out of this spiraling crisis is wars where others destroy themselves.
The US is not going to stop the proxy war, since it’s an existential crisis for the American Empire. Russia’s victory means the surge of a multipolar world that is now nascent, and end of the dollar hegemony as well as the American Century. Thus, the US will keep escalating — sending more tanks, drones, rocket launchers, long-range missiles, missile defense systems, and even fighter jets.
Anonymous
“ The US dollar is a curse on all of us ,” said George Yeo, Singapore’s former foreign minister, at a conference this month hosted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
ReplyDelete"When the international financial system becomes a weapon, alternatives appear to replace it. The dollar will lose its advantages.”
Can the USA continue to pay holders of treasuries the interest of hundreds of billions? That is the question and that is the reason why countries wants to deleverage on their treasury holdings and not buying into it. They stand to lose it all through no fault of their own, which is going to be very painful.
ReplyDeleteBig holders, like Japan, China and Little Britain will be most affected if any default arises. Japan and Little Britain can continue to buy, which ironically even Japan is not doing today, while China is better off selling and investing the money in more stable areas like infrastructures or loans to poor countries. China has all the avenues to recycle their reserves held in US$, and would be wise to do it faster incrementally.
More likely it is the US$ hegemony that is a curse. Before the US$ attained its hegemonic status, the USA could do nothing with the US$ like it is doing today. And the more the USA thinks it can get away with murder, the more they misused the US$ hegemony to capitalise on it.
ReplyDeleteWhen the USA weaponised the US$, that was the point of time that the world realised an alternative has to be found. But finding alternatives and trying to implement it was dangerous, even fatal. Just trying to bypass the oil trade alone, which the US$ hegemony is dependent on, and which Saddam Hussein attempted, was the price he had to pay. Who is next to try? Gadaffi did and ended up likewise. No one country was strong enough militarily and financially capable of upsetting the apple cart.
With Russia providing the military backing and China the financial backbone, the USA had never faced such forbidding obstacles to its attempt to preserve the US$ hegemony. Dealing with Russia or China seperately was not a problem. Dealing with them together, is not a walkover by any means. That is why they USA wants very badly to split the Russia/China alliance by hook or by crook. And smaller countries wanting also to see the end of the US$ hegemony can now find some semblance of an umbrella over their heads with Russia and China providing the cover. That is why more and more countries are joining the BRICS.
Not being able to split the Russia/China alliance, the USA is, many believe, intending indeed to take on China by winding down in Europe, leaving Nato to engage with Russia. With Japan taking up the role of fighting to the last Japanese, the USA is thinking of taking on China with Japanese help. But do remember that China still has North Korea to rely on and give support. North Korea's existence is highly dependant on China's survival, and Kim is not going to sit idly by when it is an existential issue for his country and his own survival. Japan should be worried about North Korea first before thinking about taking on China.
Russia is also sitting next door to Japan and ever ready to kick the Japanese ass. Putin would have nothing to hold him back when dealing with Japan, not blue eye Slavs.
ReplyDeleteJapan right now already cannot produce enough younger people to grow the economy, and is stuttering. After a war with China, how many more Japanese are going to perish and how would Japan cope with such a situation?
ReplyDeleteWar in this scenario will not help Japan to turn their economic situation around, unlike the situation existing after WW2, when most countries like China, South Korea and other Asian countries were still dirt poor. By the time they start producing more people, they will be lagging far behind others and that is even if they want to breed like rabbits just to increase their numbers.
Japan might just end up like the Native Americans or the Aborigines if they are not careful. Self genocide? But, might as well, since they are willing to fight to the last Japanese.
Japan is committing self genocide by dumping radioactive water from Fukushima into its sea. This not only destroy the marine environment, make the marine life inedible, it will also endanger the lives of all the people living in the Pacific Ocean, and later the whole world when the contaminated radioactive water, and marine life that are contaminated, spread across to other oceans. It could destroy marine life and human life as well.
ReplyDeleteThe Japanese are so irresponsible and deadly. The first people to be affected would be Japanese and then the Pacific Islanders. Then both shores of the Pacific Oceans.
Hi Anon 4.37
DeleteDon't be surprised that they will dump the radio active waters at the South China Seas and also Keepel Harbours Waters.
So have the daft Brits lookouts again at Fort Silso and Labrador
No more sushi and sashimi to eat.
ReplyDeleteThe Japanese love sushi. The fresher the better and more in demand, straight from the sea to the mouth. They taste much better with the radioactive ingredients added, I suppose. That is why they are doing it to themselves.
ReplyDeleteSelf genocide no problem, it is a Japanese trait. After all, have we forgotten they were so proud of their 'Kamikaze' pilots during WW2. Well, that trait is still alive and well.
Hahaha
ReplyDeleteThe moment RB let his guard down, the terrorist waiting in ambush, launched an attack. I knew that those one liners, with a link for clicking, is a terrorist trap and a sneak attack.
The Government, Banks, Hospitals and even Polyclinics have all warned about clicking links that are basically scam related. Since here it is a terrorist attack, I should call it stepping on a mine when clicking on the link. Be careful!
With a Japanese population already dwindling, dumping water contaminated by radioactive elements into their own backyard is not a wise thing to do. Radiation can harm the human body, and its effects can produce abnormal babies. Agent Orange used by the USA in Vietnam is still affecting children born generations down the road.
ReplyDeleteBut there is really no other way for the Japanese. That contaminated water has to go somewhere. That shows how dangerious Nuclear Power Stations can be if something goes wrong. They claimed it is very safe way to produce clean energy that does not pollute the environment. That is if they do not take into account the nuclear waste produced and the problems of getting rid of them.
As in all things, it is only the pros that are highlighted and the cons always hidden. Does that tell us anything about the debate now raging about the COVID19 vaccines? I believe there is no exception.
Japan in particular opted for nuclear power mainly to harvest enriched uranium for its nuclear weapon programme.
ReplyDeleteThe West have been dumping nuclear waste into the oceans for decades. My suspicion for all the whales that berthed on beaches to die was caused by swimming too close to the nuclear waste and got affected by radiation and lost their senses of direction or brain damages. The West kept mum about this phenomenon, did not want to comment or find out why.