The four pillars of American industrial might are in the areas of weapons, commercial aircraft, chips/handphones and automobiles. These are the big money spinners for the American economy and were unchallenged for several decades. One might add in the pharmaceutical industry with a near monopoly in pseudo vaccines supported by the American govt and imposed on weak and desperate American stooge countries in secretive deals. But this is proving to be a passing phase and would soon be phased off when enough pressure is exerted to expose the vaccine hoax.
In the field of military weapons, the new kid in the block, China, has made inroads into many countries that were users of American weapons or countries that were blocked from buying American weapons like in Latin America. China has started to sell tanks, submarines and fighter jets to Argentina with the prospect of other Latin American countries following this new trend. Asean countries have also started to purchase weapons from China, eg Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar and Indonesia. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia had quietly been buying Chinese weapons like long range missiles for decades, and now starting to open up in the purchase of drones and advanced fighter jets. Iran is a main customer of Chinese weapons from missiles, drones to the latest J20s and J31s. Pakistan even joint produce the Chinese Xiaolong or J17s Thunder and marketing them to African and Latin American countries. Pakistan has also ordered 25 of latest versions of the J10s to replace the ageing American F16s.
And Russia is also a main exporter of weapons and aircraft with India as its main customer, and to Africa. The door to the weapons market is now flung wide open and China and Russia are eating into the American pie, once an American monopoly.
What is going to be devastating to the American aviation industry is the collapse of Boeing, once a top money spinner with little contest even from the European Airbus. China is practically cutting off all orders from Boeing and this will deal a death blow to Boeing as China was its main and biggest customer. Airbus was the direct beneficiary during this transition while China rams up the production of its indigenous commercial jet, the C919 with the bigger C929 following closely. Orders are coming in all over the world, meaning erosion of the Boeing sales. The dangerous and problem stricken 737 Max came in timely to put a big question mark on the safety and reliability of the once unchallenged Boeing stables of aircraft. When Boeing goes down, it would be the biggest trophy for China and a big blow to the American aviation industry and employment market.
The American control of the chips/handphone market is also under attack. Biden thought that they could still cling on to their control of the high end chip industry and is launching a massive exercise to coerce TSMC and Samsung to shift production to the USA and cut off from the Chinese market. The move of TSMC production to the Arizona desert is a certain death warrant to TSMC as it would no longer be competitive in cost and a lack of skilled and disciplined workers. Samsung has rebelled and would not go along with the American agenda as its biggest chip market is China. It has also relocated a bulk of its production capacity to China as well and breaking away from the China market would bring down Samsung immediately. The South Koreans would put their national interest first and would not succumb to American pressure.
On the other hand Chinese technology to produce smaller high end chips is running at supersonic speed. China has no problem in producing 28nm to 14nm chips and now starting to run full production for 7nm chips as well. It would only be a matter of time when China would also be producing its own 5nm, 3nm chips to compete with the Americans head on. For sure the American dominance in high end chips would not last long and if by their sheer coercion to migrate TSMC to the deserts of Arizona, two possibilities may emerge. TSMC becomes inefficient and uncompetitive or TSMC could also break away like Samsung to shift production to China and to stay in the China market. These developments would bring down the American chip industry for good. TSMC would not be its present self without the Chinese market and Samsung would be the next biggest chip maker in this contest, the biggest winner.
Associated with chip making is the handphone market. Apple is the last brand standing from the USA. All the other American brands is history. When Apple is chopped down by the cheaper and better Chinese handphones, with Huawei coming back strongly with bigger innovations, quantum and satellite technology, Apple's days are also numbered. What if Apple cannot be assembled in China with Chinese made parts, its price would sky rocket and game over.
The American automobile industry is set to head towards the sunset with the trend towards EVs. China has read this trend early and has embarked in a big scale to full production of EV vehicles by 2030. Other than Tesla, the Americans have no other answers to the flourishing EV manufacturers in China. And the Chinese are now very advanced and coming up tops in the production of EV batteries. Even Tesla is now using Chinese made batteries by BYD. The huge ICE market in the US is turning into the biggest stumbling block to the transition to EVs, restraining the growth into the new technology. The infrastructure of ICE and abundant oil in the US would kill the trend towards EVs, or at least slow down the transition. By the time the Americans wake up, it would be too late.
Chinese EVs are now maturing while the Americans are only on the starting block except for Tesla. But Tesla is facing very tough competition from Chinese makers and brands. CATL is the number one manufacturer of EV batteries. China has many EV manufacturers and pushing hard with more innovations to make EVs cheaper and more attractive as a mode of transportation. The EVs are the future and ICEs would become the dinosaurs. An above average EV could easily hit 100kph in 4 secs or faster time that could only be achieved by top of the line ICE vehicles costing a bomb. Chinese EVs would flood the markets in the US and Europe and around the world. The Ukraine War has given the Chinese EVs a headstart in Russia.
When Boeing is down, Apple is down, chips monopoly and superiority loss, Ford and GM losing competitiveness in automobile market against Chinese EVs, and American sanctioned countries and former allies queuing to buy Chinese and Russian made weapons, withers the American industrial might?
Not to forget the dollar is under attack and the Americans may not be able to print money like crazy to support its crazy and vicious war making and killings of the innocents. Instead of everyday praying and braying that China and Russia are going bankrupt, European economies are collapsing, it could be the American economy going bust first.
The trade war, technology war, chip war, supply chain war, information war, space war, war in Ukraine, etc etc, and sanctions, are making the Americans weaker instead of stronger and getting isolated and encircled by the rest of the world. The evil American Empire would be roasted for good.
The end is near.
A very good analysis! I hope all the happenings are going to bring down the might of the Evil USA.
ReplyDeleteNo other countries, except China and Russia are able to make the Evil USA down to earth. Just wait for a few more years and the Stupidity Has No Cure will rear its head to expose the arrogant, the cocky and the bustard behaviours of Washington.
The Evil USA, for all the myriads of sins that they have been committing for the last 400 years and more, has to be put in their proper shoes. They cannot be going round the World to control through deceit the weaker countries at its whims and fancies any more.
The rise of China's and Russia have become a blessing in disguise. They are the muscles that can challenge the the total hegemony of the Evil USA. They must prevail, by all means.
Other than China and Russia, there are other countries on the rise. These countries are presently being controlled directly or indirectly by the Evil USA. However, they will rise and must rise up to the detriment of the Evil USA, in terms of trade, developments and progress. These countries, together with China and Russia will be the greatest challenge to the hegemony of Evil USA.
The days of the Evil USA are numbered!
The rest of the world has seen the development and change, of countries like China and Russia providing the leadership to challenge and bring down the white men's domination and oppression of the world. All the countries other than the AngloSaxon and Europeans are quietly taking their stance to align with Russia and China.
ReplyDeleteThis is a chance of a lifetime. They cannot let this opportunity to go to waste. This is the time to bring down American hegemony and white domination of the world.
The Arab world is fully behind the BRICS, so are the Latin Americans and many African countries. Asia and SE Asia and the Pacific Islands are also on board. It is now the rest of the world, the coloured people against the white men.
China's chip technology, though still quite behind the Taiwanese and Koreans, will be able to catch up in time. Give them another five years and things will be starkly different.
ReplyDeleteBiden can deny China access to high end chip technology, but China will not be hampered in the long run. This is perhaps the last thing that the USA can pull to curtail China's advance. But it is going to fail as in all others.
China had alreay proven it's capabilities in super-computers, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, rocketry and space exploration, aviation advancements both military and civilian, naval capablities in submarine and aircraft carrier construction, and not to forget infrastructure acumen that baffles the world. These are not things that you can be sure the USA would allowed them to learn from the West. So, what gives in chip development that will stop China going forward?
Right now, the high end chips are basically important for the military and mobile phones. All others that depend on chips, like household gadgets, cars, TVs, only need mostly the 14 to 28 nanometer chips which China is able to produce itself.
The Americans are killing all the chip makers. They may be able to make the chips but cannot sell to the biggest customer, China. China absorbs as much as 50% or more of their production. Without China market, they could not grow and have to scale down their production and size.
ReplyDeleteSamsung and TSMC would have to make a choice, to downsize by half and be controlled by the Americans or decoupled from the Americans and go for the Chinese market. The choice is obvious. The main purpose of these companies is growth and make more profits. What is the point of manufacturing in the USA and could only sell into a smaller market?
The only sure way to collapse United States of America's aggressive dominance of the world must be to get rid of the petrodollar.
ReplyDeleteWhen the Americans and Europeans have sanctioned everyone else, they would be left trading among themselves. The 10% of white men can enjoy their little world and call themselves the international community.
ReplyDeleteThe rest of the world would leave them alone, not buying from them, not selling to them. And everyone would be very happy.
Let us wait for winter. Winter was Russia's weapon in the defeat of Hitler. Winter in 2022 will yet be playing a significant role favouring Russia against the EU vis a vis NATO.
ReplyDeleteThis time, winter in the EU is not going to be a season of good tidings as in the past, and will bring the EU to it's knees first. That is just the beginning. The cut in oil production orchestrated by OPEC+ will put the final nail in the coffin for the EU with EU competiveness in dire jeopardy. The EU, and particularly Germany and France, have prospered for decades with cheap Russian oil and gas. That is going to end.
Germany, sliding into de-industrialisation, will see the disintigration of the EU and NATO, as some countries in the EU, ie the PIGS, were and are still economically dependant on Germany's bailout measures. The end of the EU and with it NATO, will leave the USA without strong allies to support it's agenda and no strong backing at the UN. Right now, against Russia and China, the USA had strong EU support and if that falters or become non existent, the USA will have to go solo. Alone against Russia and China it remains a tall order for the USA. Right now, dealing with North Korea is already a hot potato to handle for the USA.
Presently, OPEC+ is moving beyond the control of the USA and the price of oil is now not up to the dictate of the USA alone. The USA is calling for capping the price of oil, and OPEC+ is making sure it does not happen as OPEC+ countries wants the price of oil to remain high and good profitability to follow. That is bad news for the USA.
If the USA were to call for sanctions against the Middle Eastern producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, that is going to push the Saudis and other OPEC+ countries faster into selling oil in Yuan or other currencies and dumping the US$. That literally is the beginning of the end of the US$ hegemony.