Wars in East Asia would be a non starter, not in Taiwan

 The Americans and the Japanese would want to have a war in East Asia in the like of Ukraine to trap China in a long military struggle that would drain its economic resources and stop it from growing stronger to overtake the Americans. Unfortunately the geography of Taiwan and East Asia does not allow a repeat of what is happening in Ukraine, Europe.

Taiwan is an isolated island far far away from any land/country except China. The closest is Japan and the Philippines but still several hundred miles away. There is no direct land borders with Taiwan like Ukraine. In case of a war on Taiwan, Japan or the Americans would be defeated by the logistics and supply chain to keep the war going. China is already in control of the seas up to 2,000 km from its shores.

And there is no land target for the Japanese or Americans to strike except China mainland. This is taboo as striking China mainland would mean China missiles raining onto all the Japanese main islands and cities and also America homeland. You hit me, I hit you. Would the Japanese and Americans dare to invite such a scenario, an attack on their homelands?

What kind of war would it be without a theatre of war or war zone on land? Where are the targets? The islands in South China Sea? If the Americans strike at them, Guam and Hawaii would be automatic targets for the PLA.  If not, the battles would be fought out in the sea or airspace over the seas. China would have numerical advantages with a superior navy in numbers and new warships, new technologies, supported by all the missiles and war planes from the mainland and the island fortresses in the South China Sea.

We will see how the Americans and Japanese could start a war in the seas around China without attacking the Chinese mainland. The American propaganda machine is still trying to trivialise the visit of Pelosi as an innocent grandma visiting an island and that China's reaction was badly received. Unfortunately, the realities on the ground is that the whole world, including Asean, have seen this outrageous and irresponsible visit by Pelosi as an aggressive affront by the Americans to want to start a war in the region, a war that no wants it. Behind closed doors they are furious at the reckless behaviour of the Americans, behaving as if they were still the evil Empire and wanting to mess around with the region, creating another Ukraine. No, the world is aghast at the aggressive and warmongering Americans.

China would not want to start a war with Taiwan. China has demonstrated that it could reunite Taiwan by a blockade to wear down Taiwan without any big loss of Chinese lives on both sides of the straits. The most the Taiwanese could do would be to send their aircraft or warships to try to break out. The only limited casualties would by the pilots and seamen, not involving the civilians on the island. China would avoid, at all cost, to harm the Chinese in Taiwan. Bloodshed must be avoided if reunification is to be successful and welcomed.

If there is an escalation, it would be a naval and air battle with the Americans or Japanese fought in the eastern sea and airspace. Shooting down and killing Americans and Japanese would be more palatable and even desired by the Chinese people on both sides of the straits.

Would the hostile and belligerent Americans and Japanese dare to raise the temperature to the point of a hot war with China? China would fight them but would not make Taiwan another Ukraine that the Americans and Japanese wanted to. In a way the battle lines have been drawn and waiting for the Americans and Japanese to walk in for a showdown.