Pelosi's trip to Taiwan - A different take

 A recollection of the events prior to and after the visit has allowed time to look at a different angle of this dangerous and provocative trip that turned out looking a bit lame. No fireworks, Pelosi came and gone, albeit discreetly in the darkness of the night and taking a long detour east of the Philippines to avoid the Chinese positions in the South China Sea. The commencement of her trip to Taiwan from Singapore instead of Japan was also a case of safety consideration as flying through Japanese island chain and military bases would be as dangerous as flying over the South China Sea. The Americans would not trust the life of Pelosi in the hands of the Japanese.

The big question of why Pelosi must make this controversial and seemingly meaningless trip at this time could be interpreted from the pre and post trip events. Remember why Biden was so anxious to want to talk to Xi and why Xi refused to do so but then acquiesced and then they spoke? Apparently Biden wanted to tell Xi about this trip and knowing that China would not agree and might make it very difficult to the point of risking a war with the US or endangering the life of Pelosi, there must be a trade off.

Biden's interest or objective in this errant trip was more to shore up his popularity and the weakening support for the Democrats in the next Presidential election. A successful visit by the Speaker of the House would be a boost to the failing support for him and his party. 

But why would China allow the trip to go ahead with practically no interference or dramatic interception, like a non event? The Americans could not negotiate successfully for such a trip as Xi also has an election coming up and cannot afford to look weak. The only possibility was that a deal was made to let Pelosi through for Biden to score some points and a trade off, in this case for China to make some gains in changing the status quo through a military exercise around Taiwan. Biden made some gains and China too benefited as well, a quid pro quo arrangement. The silence in the protest from the American side and their allies speaks volume about the Chinese exercise around Taiwan. The aircraft carriers were not around, heading towards Japan.  It was like an after thought that Washington said the aircraft carriers would be back to sail through the Taiwan Strait later.  Even Tsai Ing Wen took a very low profile with comments that were more like appeasement.

Wasn't the trip meant to boost the morale and support for the separatist movements and for Tsai Ing Wen to thump her chest and shout at China? She paid millions to Pelosi for it but it did not turn out that way. She is now calling for calm and peace talk with China. There was also an absent of response from the Taiwanese military, like they were hiding in their bases or underground. The mute reaction from the Taiwanese with the PLA dropping bombs all around the island must be very embarrassing. What could be the real reason? 

As a de facto state or colony of the Americans, the Americans make the call. Do not turn this visit into a big spectacle for confrontation with China. Everyone just behave normally as if nothing has happened. The main goal of the trip is for American consumption at home, for their own election. This was arranged at the behest of the Americans, not the Taiwan govt. Tsai Ing Wen had no say, could not say no. It was an unofficial trip, no pre announcement, no welcoming party, sneaking in in the dark of the night, with lights switched off.

So, the final position, the Americans got their wishes fulfilled, and so did China. No harassment from both sides during the visit and the military exercises. The rhetoric and hypes and protests were all a charade. The big loser, Taiwan. China is now sitting on their doorstep and this would be the new normal.

What do you think? 

PS. The Americans would still want to take down China. And China would fight the Americans to the last man. The evil Americans are going to start WW3. Fortunately China is now able to take them on, better with Russia, North Korea and Iran on its side.