As analysts have noted, the United States has limited munitions, raising the possibility that it would be required to cede the South China Sea in the early stages of a conflict with China. And a successful invasion would increase China’s power projection capabilities and weaken the ability of the United States to support its ally through an air and naval presence in the region.
While the United States could have little hope that other Southeast Asian countries (except perhaps for Singapore) would give practical assistance in the event of a conflict, the Philippines will be in the spotlight.A dearth of other viable regional options makes Luzon, the Philippines’ largest island, separated from Taiwan by the Luzon Strait, highly desirable real estate. Notably, some recent war games by US think tanks focused on how a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan might unfold have assumed that US forces would have military access to bases in the Philippines. CNA
The above is quoted from an article by a Susannah Patton in CNA. It is quite obvious that the Americans are looking at the Philippines as their attack base against China in their pursuit of world hegemony and control of the western Pacific region. The Philippines have been an American colony and military bases for several decades and the Americans have always treated the Philippines as a convenient colonial legacy to extend their military influence in the region. And there are many Filipino generals that are very closed to the Americans and would favour the return of the Americans to reoccupy the former Clark and Subic bases.
Would the Philippines be willing to play the role of a Ukraine in a war between the United States and China? The article insinuate that China is an aggressive and expansionist power and after reuniting with Taiwan, the Americans mischievously called in invasion of Taiwan, Philippines would be next to be targeted by China. It refused to acknowledge the fact that Taiwan was a part of China and a domestic issue. The real threat to the region is American hegemony and interference and expansion to control the region. It ignores the fact that the Americans have been sending warships and warplanes to provoke and agitate for war and instability in the region.
It also ignores the fact that China has good relations with the countries of Asean, not at war with any of them and does not have hegemonic ambition to be an Empire like the Americans and the West. The Americans are still vigorously cultivating Asean to be their poodle in their fight with China. At the moment it seems that Asean has wisen up to stay out of big power contest and choosing to be neutral. Would this last?
The fact that Asean is increasingly behaving like the Americans, in interfering with the domestic affairs of Myanmar, acting like the righteous God and feeling very good about such actions, is a sign that the basic instincts of arrogance and pompousness are there to be exploited. Small minds always want to think big and act big, like punching above one's weight or poking one's fingers into other people's affairs and telling others to do what it wants them to do. Power in the wrong hands is dangerous.
If Asean forgets its key principles of neutrality, peaceful co existence and non interference in other country's affairs, its member country's affairs, it would slowly become a small arrogant USA like Australia, thinking too highly of itself and willing to use power to act big and tough. The Americans love Asean to behave like a rogue, like gangsters, like the Americans, so that they can pull the strings from behind to divide Asean and to destabilise the region.
Asean still harbours the mentality of third world countries, always thinking too highly of themselves and acting high and mighty, like the way they are acting against Myanmar. Who is the leader in Asean that is advocating such intrusive behaviour against a fellow member and thinking that this is the role of Asean, to interfere and meddle with fellow Asean members and dictating to Myanmar what is right and what is acceptable to Asean?
Do not be surprised that Asean would turn out to be another little stooge led by the nose by the Americans to be the troublemaker in the region, and bring disasters to themselves for being a nasty brat. There is peace and stability in the region for the moment. With the number one troublemaker agitating and encouraging Asean to be like them, the peace and tranquility in the region may soon be a thing of the past.
Pray Asean has wise leadership and be spared from becoming another spoilt brat of the American Empire and turning SE Asia into another trouble spot. Asean must keep its fingers off the domestic affairs of other countries, including Asean members.
Excellent essay RB at this moment I'm thinking about Myanmar, Laos and probably Thailand the only three ASEAN countries that may change the future or fortunes. These three countries China can depends on in a fight for survival... More to add later... Kindest Regards JC
ReplyDeleteJc long time no see your post. Where are u based now?
ReplyDeleteAnother perspective, other than national interests, on why some ASEAN leaders may favor the US and the West, and India rather than China:
ReplyDelete1) Education - did they go the Western universities or Indian universities, or Chinese universities
2) Assets - were some of their assets parked in the West or India or China
3) Friendship ties - are they personal friends of the FMs of the West or India or China
4) Their father, mother, grandfather, grandmother or great grandparents come from the West or India or China
@ 9:51 am.
ReplyDeleteYou hit it on the head! The questions you have asked are so refreshingly correct.
It's all about friendship. Who is your friend? Are the Americans, the Indians or the China men your friends, neutral or unconnected?
That is the question!
Asean has already been influenced by the Americans, through all sorts of luring attractions and personal benefits. Especially the military generals.
ReplyDeleteAt the top of the food chain, the higher you go the more corrupted one becomes.
That is the real humanitarian problem!
That is why China has to be very careful. The Philippines is playing double jeopardy with the USA and China. India is doing the same with USA and Russia. Japan is doing the same with USA and China. All are hyenas waiting by the wayside to pick up the spoils of war. All cannot be trusted.
ReplyDeleteKim tells the South Korean leader to shut his childish mouth trying to bribe North Korea to denuclearise with economic aid. This is spouting the same hogwash used by Trump long ago. Kim is even more distrustful today of the South Korea stooge leader of the USA than his predecessor Moon.
ReplyDeleteNorth Korea will never, ever denuclearise. Doing so will lead to it's destruction, clear and simple. We must understand that the North Koreans have been aiming to be a nuclear state for more than half a century as a deterrent, from Kim's grandfather's reign. And we expect him to just denclearise with a few empty words from the South? Even Trump's big carrot failed to do it before, so what makes the Soth Korean leader thinks he can turn Kim around? He must be sleepwalking.
USD as reserve currency may be going the way of dodo..
ReplyDelete'Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales'
Full article at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541
US$ reserve currency is going the way of the dodo bird, not may, but a certainty. That talk has been ongoing over the last decade, and the question is how soon. The sanctions on the Russians hastened the extinction by a faster pace. Saudi Arabia could be the last nail in their coffin.
ReplyDeleteJoint Military Exercises In Russia
ReplyDeleteIn a way, to counter the evil US-led military exercises being held in the South and East China Seas, there is an initiative being carried out by the Russians, India, China and other allies of the friendly forces.
The Chinese troops will now be training side-by-side with the Russian troops in one of Moscow's most important military exercises to date.
The Ministry of Defence of China has announced that its Armed Forces will be taking part in the Vostok 2022 strategic exercises.
Though this has been going on for four years, it is only in this year that the military exercises have taken on both internal and international aspects of conflicts and confrontations.
In this year, the exercises also include soldiers from Belarus, India, Mongolia and Tajikistan.
It has been scheduled to take place from 30 August to 5 September in Russia.
More details will be forthcoming when the exercises take off.
The World cannot just continue to turn a blind eye to what the USA is doing. The last half century they have been on a rampage, spreading terrorism (they are the de facto No. 1 terrorist), destroying countries, plundering and stealing their oil and other resources, and killing and forcing countries to take their side by threats. They also created other terrorist groups, like ISIS and now creating another rising terrorist group in Ukraine, the neo-Nazi revival. So much weapons have now fallen into their hands, and this will soon create a disaster that is hard to imagine. But anything that creates chaos and war suits the Evil Empire.
ReplyDeleteThey destroyed the Middle East. They are now destroying Europe. Soon, or even now they are coming to destroy Asia. After that they will probably move to destroy South America and then Africa as well. After destroying them, they say they will help to rebuild with loans from IMF and World Bank that have long strings attached. Then everything is under their control like the good old days of colonialism.
This is an Evil Empire that brings nothing but destruction and if humans cannot take them down, pray God must do something. But pray first that the de-dollarisation move is successful, as that will no longer allow them to print toilet paper notes without consequences to fund their military adventures.