10/03/2021

Covid19 - Should daily reports focus only on those who are likely to fall very ill?



The recent move to tighten safe management measures is not surprising but disappointing. The work-from-home policy may thin out the crowds. But some feel the vaccinated are being "penalised" with the dining-in numbers at F&B establishments reduced from five to two while the number allowed at hawker centres and coffee shops remains at two.

The authorities have repeatedly talked about Singapore living with the virus. Thus, this reversal in dining-in numbers is confusing, perhaps even sending a negative signal to both the local population and international communities.

Some countries have placed Singapore in their higher-risk travel group as we keep focusing on the total number of new cases per day.

From the daily Ministry of Health (MOH) press statements, we can tell that:

•About 98 per cent of the infected individuals had no symptoms or mild symptoms.

•Over the past 28 days, no one 18 years and below has required oxygen supplementation or intensive care unit (ICU) care.

•An average of more than 80 per cent of infected individuals who need oxygen supplementation or ICU care are 61 and above.

So is it time for MOH to report the number of just the 2 per cent new cases who are likely to fall very ill? At least one neighbouring country is already doing this.

If there are 2,000 new cases per day, 2 per cent works out to 40 cases per day. To allow for sufficient hospitalisation capacity, the percentage can be expanded to, say, 10 per cent and that will be 200 new cases.

When MOH announces 2,000 new cases per day, it causes unnecessary panic among the general public, especially those who are less informed of the more infectious Delta variant.

Of the patients who fall very ill, the elderly are much more likely to require oxygen or ICU care.

Should the authorities focus even more on this most vulnerable group? They can be identified easily at hawker centres, coffee shops and HDB void decks, chatting away for hours. Regrettably, most of them are either unmasked or improperly masked.

Besides educating them on the various safety measures, more safe distancing officers should be deployed where these seniors gather. Such deployment is less critical at shopping malls as these crowds are mostly younger people who are less likely to become very sick. That said, everyone must be socially responsible so they will not be infected and infect others.

The authorities can consider more measures (both incentives and disincentives) to further persuade the unvaccinated who are medically fit to be inoculated.

If Singapore can reduce or prevent the seniors from getting infected (particularly the unvaccinated), we can then truly move towards treating the disease as endemic. 

Anonymous

9 comments:

  1. 'COVID-19 Singapore: Living With The Virus? - Think Again!'

    Hi LIPS, will post the above article tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good. Lucky you have not posted. I just spotted one more error. I will correct it and repost it again. Thanks.

      LIPS

      Delete
  2. That dining in protocol is a farce. Either allow or don't allow and be done with it. Why go from two, to five, to eight then back to five and back to two? Then there is the protocol that only the fully vaccinated can dine in as if only the unvaccinated are doing the spreading. Where is the proof?

    At two per family, a family of three or four would not be able to eat together. They would not do dine in, right? What is the purpose? And if the restaurant or F & B outlet happen to flout the rules unwittingly, they will be punished. How to do business like that?

    I also wonder what does publishing a map to show which area had the most infections serves any purpose. To discourage people from travelling to those areas? If living with the virus is the mantra, just treat it as endemic since they are so keen to do that. It then just makes no sense to tell people which area is dangerous. And interpreting the map is like navigating a maze for the oldies. Stop confusing and do some real informing!

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  3. The following is my view.

    Why daily case report is important ?

    1) The daily case report reflect the state of current infection in Singapore which is important for those countries which are trade partner of Singapore that go for zero-infection strategy. I have no doubt that the daily case is a requirement for those countries, otherwise if border is opened and the case is spread to those countries, who are liable for that ? Remember the mild case may well end up as wildfire in other country. We are lucky does not mean other country are that lucky given the different kind of environment and size of country.

    2) The daily case reflect the disruption in the economies. Absolutely there is lack of media news that emphasize the disruption of 10 days quarantine necessitate for the infected and their family that live under on house. This 10 days at this point could well be recurring at any point in time and may not one time thing. If people think this is not important, they will know once they get it. The point is that if the infection is not curb, at some point the economies will be impacted at some point cause majority end up in quarantine order due to massive infection.

    3) Those who get corona could well end up with some symptom which may or may not heal over time. They may suffer loss of smell, and every food are tasteless as a result. I have already lost the sense of smell even with mild infection so expensive and cheap food no longer matter. I am ensured that it will recover over time but to each their own

    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210624/lost-sense-of-smell-returns-for-almost-all-after-covid#1

    https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/why-covid-19-makes-you-lose-your-sense-smell-and-how-get-it-back


    So for those who think getting mild corona virus is nothing to worry about, Please think thrice.

    ReplyDelete
  4. By the time they can reduce or prevent seniors from getting infected, I think there will not be so many seniors left to talk about. And that means tones of money saved for the Government.

    This is only chapter two in the destructive life cycle of the virus ie the original and Delta variant. Our experts predict this won't be the last and of course big Pharmas wants the drama to continue indefinitely.

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  5. The goalpost is shifting again Days ago it was sneakily moved to 5,000+ a day of expected infections. Now it is between 5,000 and 10,000 cases a day is a possibility. Are Singaporeans prepared? If not be prepared with this presentation to get you mentally ready to live with the virus.

    The excuse is that they could not predict. Fair enough! We have seen that after all, about the predictions of vaccine protection that failed, herd immunity that went to the dogs, prevention of serious complications that saw deaths more and more affecting the vaccinated. How can we ever believe what is to come? Weather forecast or fortune telling, which profession do you have more faith in?

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  6. They can urinate down your back and tell you it's raining . .

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  7. Which is the true picture?:

    FT headline: Singaporeans take fright at relaxation of Covid restrictions

    or

    ST headline: Finance Minister Lawrence Wong urges patience on reopening further

    ReplyDelete