Anyone asking this question today got to have his head check. I just read it somewhere that one pseudo western scholar did asked this question. My simple answer, the person asking this question is basically a D grade student or D grade scholar and did not know what he is thinking, or still living in his own world of make beliefs. A hillbilly of sort.
The American strategy at one time was to contain China within the first island chain, stretching from Japan down to Taiwan and the Philippines. The Americans then were the most powerful sea and air power to be able to do that. And China was still militarily very weak vis a vis the Americans, particularly in air and sea power. No Chinese ship can ever think of sailing further than the first island chain if the Americans did not want it to do so.
The whole western Pacific, all the seas surrounding China, were as good as an American lake. The American navy and air force were the undisputed and unchallenged masters of this lake. Chinese ships would be contained within the first island chain, China would be contained within the first island chain in the event of war or hostility. And the Americans could sail their aircraft carriers to the door of China any time they wished in a show of force, through the Taiwan Straits, and China could do nothing about it.
That was 20 years ago. China took the humiliation in the show of force but did not sit idle. They went on to develop a new military strategy called Anti Access, Area Denial Strategy, to deny and stop the American warships from entering the area bounded by the first island chain and also the second island chain that extended further to Guam in the Pacific Ocean. For this strategy to be effective, China must develop weapons to threaten American warships in the area. China came out with DF21 and DF26 anti ship and anti aircraft carrier missiles with range of 2,000 km to 4,000 km from its shores.
With these missiles and other complements of war, submarines, bombers, drones, warships etc etc, China today is in control of all the seas around its coast lines, extending 4,000 km outwards. Any warship within this range is a sitting duck and would be killed when war breaks out. China has turned its coastal seas, the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea into a China lake.
The question of, can China breaks out of the first island chain, is moronic, obsolete today. A better question, would American ships be able to enter the China lake, ie the seas within the second island chain without being sunk by China. The so called American fantasy of freedom of navigation trips around the South China Sea is only possible in peace time, when China does not press the buttons. No thinking American commanders would dare to risk an aircraft carrier with 7,000 men and 100 aircraft or American warship in the China lake in times of war. They would stay far far away from the striking range of Chinese missiles for safety. The China lake would be for Chinese ships to patrol and guard against enemy ships.
Now, who's that asking if China can break out of the first island chain? Need to see a shrink and has his head checked. The military might of the Americans is still as before. But the military clout of China has grown beyond recognition and could keep the American ships out of the western Pacific Ocean, out of the China lake, no longer able to cause mischief in China's court yard, in China's lake.
Actually the range of Chinese missiles now encompass the Indian Ocean as well. Don't fool around with the Chinese missile and air defence system.
USA Islands chains are actually not practical, it is like going for witch hunt. It is a veil for money making by businessmen to exploited the big budgets for defense spending for fighting ghost. Aircraft carrier is actually just a moving floating platform. It need to float and cannot be too compact. Drone ships many time more compact than the aircraft carrier can be built to bang at it. Let the carriers dance rock and roll will do, no need to sink it.
ReplyDeleteWhen did that scholar ask that question? During the opium war period?
ReplyDeleteDid he also ask the question of how can China ever go to the Moon or Mars because the USA would not let them. Now that China has been to the Moon and Mars, it must be that the USA gave them permission to do so. Not only that, the USA allowed China to steal their Space
Station and high speed rails too. The USA is so benevolent it gave all these to China.
Drones to attack those aircraft carriers do not even need humans on board today. And they cost a tiny fraction of the cost. They can reach their destination faster, cheaper and need not even have to think of returning or limping home. Courtesy of the PLA,
Ever heard of the mouse trying to scare the Russian Bear? One growl and it scuttles back into it's rat hole. To save face the mouse even denied the incident, even though video evidence point to the obvious.
For months, Biden and Blinken have been asking to visit China but China said NO.
ReplyDeleteThe last few days Biden was so desperate begging China for an immediate loan and to continue to buy their debt in T Bills. China said NO.
Why would China want Biden or Blinken to visit when nothing can be achieved. Take Biden's meeting with Putin. Right after the meeting it is more sanctions. What is the purpose of holding meetings without solving problems.
ReplyDeleteIn the same way, why would China need more investigation of Wuhan, when after every investigation more questions are asked, and there will never be any satisfaction achieved until it suits the USA agenda. No such thing as bending backwards by China today. Enough is enough.
It is only a matter of time (within next few years) that Mainland China will bring the Taiwanese to their senses and reunion as One China.
ReplyDeleteChina building more than 100 silos for ICBMs in what could signal an expansion of nuclear abilities - Washington Post July 1, 2021
ReplyDeleteChina has begun construction of what independent experts say are more than 100 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles in a desert near the northwestern city of Yumen, a building spree that could signal a major expansion of Beijing’s nuclear capabilities.
Commercial satellite images obtained by researchers at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif., show work underway at scores of sites across a grid covering hundreds of square miles of arid terrain in China’s Gansu province. The 119 nearly identical construction sites contain features that mirror those seen at existing launch facilities for China’s arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.
The acquisition of more than 100 new missile silos, if completed, would represent a historic shift for China, a country that is believed to possess a relatively modest stockpile of 250 to 350 nuclear weapons. The actual number of new missiles intended for those silos is unknown but could be much smaller. China has deployed decoy silos in the past.
The construction boom suggests a major effort to bolster the credibility of China’s nuclear deterrent, said researcher Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on China’s nuclear arsenal and part of a team that analyzed the suspicious sites, first spotted by colleague Decker Eveleth as he scoured photos taken by commercial satellites over northwestern China. Lewis described the scale of the building spree as “incredible.”
“If the silos under construction at other sites across China are added to the count, the total comes to about 145 silos under construction,” Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, part of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said in a summary of his findings provided to The Washington Post. “We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a U.S. first strike in sufficient numbers to defeat U.S. missile defenses.” In addition, the Chinese navy has introduced new nuclear-weapons-capable submarines to its growing fleet.
The reported silo construction project could provide China with yet another means of concealing its most powerful weapons. The construction sites spotted on satellite photos are arrayed in two huge swaths, covering parts of a desert basin stretching to the west and southwest of Yumen, a city of 170,000 people along China’s ancient Silk Road.
Each site is separated from its neighbors by about two miles, and many of the sites are concealed by a large, dome-like covering, following a practice observed at known construction sites for missile silos in other parts of China. At sites where the dome is not in place, construction crews can be seen excavating a characteristic circular-shaped pit in the desert floor. Another construction site appears to be a partially built control center.
Lewis said the silos are probably intended for a Chinese ICBM known as the DF-41, which can carry multiple warheads and reach targets as far away as 9,300 miles, potentially putting the U.S. mainland within its reach. Major excavation work on the sites began early this year, although preparations were probably underway for months, Lewis said.
Missile silos are easily spotted by trained imagery analysts, and they are vulnerable to destruction by precision-guided missiles in the early hours of a nuclear war. For those reasons, Lewis sees the silo construction project as part of an expanded deterrent strategy by a country whose nuclear arsenal is dwarfed by those of the United States and Russia, which collectively possess more than 11,000 nuclear warheads.