Is Tuas mega port a white elephant?

The Tuas mega port is going to cause the govt several billion dollars and the govt is desperate for money, a very strange phenomenon if one is to believe that we have nearly one trillion dollars in reserves. Why would Khaw Boon Wan come out in public to announce that the govt has no money to pay for this port? What is a few billion dollars when you have nearly a trillion dollars stashed away? Quite puzzling indeed. Something fishy is going on.

The Tuas mega port is several times the size of the present port facilities and to build such a big port it means that the govt is anticipating at least a doubling in growth of shipping using the port. Otherwise it would indeed be a white elephant, building for the sake of building to boost up the GDP.

The big question, would there really be a big increase in shipping traffic or a big fall instead. Chinese shipping criss crossing Singapore makes up more than 80% of all shippings through the Straits of Malacca. If the Chinese diverted all their ships to Malacca or elsewhere, the ships calling at Tuas would go down by 80% from the present number. Even with the present capacity it would be over provided and our port would be a white elephant. If Tuas mega port is going to handle only 20% of existing shipping traffic, it would look like a ghost port, and indeed a white elephant.

This likelihood is a great possibility given the Chinese plan to be less dependent on Singapore port and the massive developments of Malacca, Gwadar and ports in Myanmar and the eventuality of a Kra Canal. The fate of Tuas mega port is hanging on a string given the present political equation.

Could Singapore turn the tide and preserve its preeminent position as the main port of call for Chinese shipping and prevent the ships from diverting to other ports? This is the tricky situation Singapore is in today, to build a mega port that could end up as a white elephant and wasting public funds in doing so.

The fate of Tuas mega port and Singapore as a thriving sea port depends on China's shipping policies which ultimately boils down to Singapore's strategic balance between China and the USA. China would want to have as many ports of call as possible to spread out its dependence on anyone port. It wants to have options. All the ports it is building are in countries that are very fickle minded and highly undependable. Malaysia has just made a volte face and threatening to derail everything the Chinese are building, including the Malacca port. This is the treacherous position of China when dealing with equality slippery leaders in the region. The cancellation of Malacca and the rail projects would mean Malaysia is no longer in the BRI and brings hope of Singapore becoming indispensable again.

Not really, as China may find the need to cut the Isthmus of Kra more urgent. What can Singapore do to regain its choice place in the Chinese equation? Ideally, it would be best for Singapore to do its balancing act well, with a real balance between China and the US with the Chinese feeling more secure, that the American threats to their interest in transiting the area within their control or not at the mercy of the Americans and a Singapore that is neutral to both.

A better option would be a more pro China policy, relatively to the US to enhance and encourage Chinese shipping here without having to spend huge funds to build up Malacca port or cutting the Kra Canal. Think about it, what can the Americans offer that China could not offer and who can offer more? The security aspect of American forces to protect Singapore's interest is something China is equally capable of doing today. And everything else the Americans could do or offer, China could offer more. The biggest consumer market in the world, a growing economy to rival the Americans, the factory of the world, the BRI and of course to channel its shipping to Tuas mega port. This last part the Americans could only do a fraction of what the Chinese could offer.

A more favourable foreign policy towards China would hook up Singapore to the world's biggest growth engine in the 21st Century versus a dying evil Empire. What is there to lose for redefining its foreign policies towards China?

There is hope that Tuas mega port would not be a white elephant if Singapore plays its cards right. And there is certain death if it does not change its one sided pro American or anti China policies. Start by clearing the swamp in the main media from publishing anti China and biased American views against China. Singapore still has an outside chance to save its position as a vital sea port of call for Chinese shipping. Remember, without the 80% of ships calling here, Singapore is dead duck.