Gunboat policy – The table turns

1996 was a watershed in gunboat diplomacy between China and the USA. The Taiwan Strait crisis saw Clinton ordering two aircraft carriers to sail through the strait in a show of force. China was humiliated in a sense as it did not have an answer to such display of military might that reminded them of the foreign naval invasion of China in the 19th Century. The Chinese took the slap in their stride, retreated their military posturing and went back to the drawing board.
 
China must not again be threatened by the Americans by military means, especially naval power superiority. The unprovoked hideous Belgrade Embassy bombing in 1999 by the Americans was another big blow to the dignity of the Chinese govt. There was still no answer to American military superiority. The Americans could hit the Chinese as and when they liked and the Chinese could not hit back, worse, with the threat of mounting a full scale attack on Chinese soil using aircraft carriers.
 
The acquisition of a Ukraine decommissioned aircraft carrier was seen by some as China’s attempt for military parity with the Americans. Since then this aircraft carrier has been refitted as the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier. The talk of China pitting against the might of 11 American aircraft carriers with a relatively inferior solitary aircraft carrier does not hold water. The Liaoning is no match for the Americans and would be outclassed even in an eyeballing match. The Liaoning would not be sailing into the open sea to confront the American aircraft carriers.
 
No, the Liaoning or the construction of more aircraft carriers is not a military strategy to stare the Americans in the eye. They serve completely different strategic interest. China’s war with the Americans in the western Pacific Ocean would be to counter the massive buildup of American aircraft carriers attempting to attack China. In such a scenario, the Chinese answer to the American naval superiority in deploying aircraft carriers that can hit China without being hit is in anti carrier missiles, the DF21Ds and the DF26s. These are missiles specially designed and developed to sink American aircraft carriers at a distance, more than 1000km or 3000km from Chinese soil. With this kill range, the American aircraft carriers would no longer have the privilege of sailing through the Taiwan Strait like a cock, not even within a 3000km radius and think they could not be sunk. There will be no need for the Liaoning or any Chinese warship to engage the American warships in the western Pacific theatre of war.
 
The Chinese are turning the table on the Americans, telling the Americans I can hit you and you can’t hit me. It is not that the Americans did not have comparable cruise missiles to hit China from the carriers at long distance. The problem is that the Americans cannot afford to be within the anti carrier missile kill range as each carrier is a target consisting of hundreds of aircraft, missiles, nuclear weapons and thousands of elite fighting men and women. The Americans can launch their cruise missiles to attack Chinese mainland. The Chinese mainland could absorb the damages. The reverse is deadly and crippling to the American carrier strike force.
 
The Americans must keep their carriers out of the strike range of Chinese anti carrier missiles. And to do so they would not be able to use the carrier as a strike force, as a launch pad to attack China anymore. The Chinese want to keep the carriers far enough not able to strike China but could be hit by China. The Chinese strategy against the American carrier strike force is the use of all the missile bases in China, unsinkable, and massive numerical superiority, against the limited American aircraft carriers, all 11 of them, kept at a distance from Chinese soil. The carriers would be neutralised, defeating their purpose as offensive aircraft carriers.
 
The table has turned in favour of China in this game of gunboat diplomacy. The Chinese aircraft carriers have no role, or at most a minimal role, in such a conflict of military power in air sea battle. It is land based missiles against carrier based missiles.
A major conflict could break out in the western Pacific Ocean but would be fought under Chinese terms. The battle front would be far out in the Pacific Ocean, not near or on Chinese soil. All American and its allies’ naval craft within the 4,000km radius from Chinese coast would be neutralized once war breaks out.