MH370 – No news is good news

To all those who are suffering from having loved ones in the flight MH370, the waiting for news on what really happened to the aircraft and the fate of the passengers is like a living nightmare. Every moment, every second is pain and agony. In despair and desperation, let there be hope. As long as there is no confirmation that the aircraft had crashed or exploded in mid air, as long as there is no evidence of any debris in the sea or on land, there is a possibility that the aircraft is safe somewhere with all its passengers and crew.

The possibility of the aircraft being hijacked and flown to an unknown destination cannot be ruled out, until such a time when the wreckage is found and confirmed. Let me hazard to try to create a possible scenario of what could have happened given the sparse information available. This is just a theory and could be proven totally wrong when the truth is out. Assuming that this is a hijack, it is a very professional job done with meticulous planning and expertise in aviation knowledge.

At the moment many have in mind that this is likely to be the works of the Uighurs or the same group of people that struck at Kunming Railway Station. I would like to differ from this view given the complexities of this operation that is showing all the signs of familiarity in the operations of air traffic, flight path, aircraft and radar performances. The people involved in this operation cannot be unsophisticated Uighurs, or if indeed committed by them, they must have received professional training and technical support from experts in insurgency. And there are a handful of western expert organisations that could conduct this operation the way it was done.

The first point to note is the location where the aircraft went missing. It was at the edges of both Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control zones and also at the limits of their radar coverage. It was like a no man’s land or space. The second point is that the aircraft could fly east or west in airspace that are not under radar surveillance. The western route would be the Gulf of Thailand and at the fringes of Malaysia and Bangkok air traffic control zones. Towards the east into the South China Sea is wide open space, away from Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines air traffic control zones. The aircraft could fly at normal cruise level undetected. The third point is the lost of RT and radar contact in almost an instance, indicating that it was likely a deliberate act to get out of radar surveillance, to shake loose it trails, and this could only be done by diving down and flying low level. This is a reflection of the intimate knowledge of radar performance and how to avoid radar surveillance. Once out of radar range, the aircraft could then return to its cruising flight level and on its way unknown to anyone. Fourth, the fact that it broke away just an hour from take off meant that it would have another 5 to 6 hours of fuel left and can fly off to a chosen destination quite a distance away, a lot of room to play with. The islands in southern Philippines look very attractive.

What could happen inside the MH 370 prior to the hijacking could be the most unsuspecting to the crew members. The hijackers could put the crew at ease with things familiar and lower their guards before crashing into the cockpit and immediately restrained the pilot and co pilot. They could even be invited and shown around the cockpit if they could win the confidence of the crew members. Taken by surprise, the pilot and co pilot had no chance to send out any distress signal and became captives of the hijackers.

At this point there were two possibilities. The hijackers could have been trained to fly the aircraft and simply took control from the pilot. Alternatively, the pilot could be under duress to do as the hijackers wished, and flew the aircraft as commanded. And the aircraft disappeared from the radars of Malaysia and Vietnam, destination unknown, but safe.

The intent of this hijacking is still unclear but could be narrowed down to a few possibilities. One obvious objective is to make demands from China by the separatist group in Xinjiang. This is top in the list of speculations. It is less likely to be targeting Malaysia as the dominant active terrorist groups are not hostile to Malaysia at this moment. It could also be groups that are supported by state agencies that are hostile to China and intent to give China some severe headache to deal with.

Hopefully this is the scenario and the passengers and crew are still safe and sound and waiting for the next chapter of this drama to unfold. And this could be the most optimistic picture for those hoping that their loved ones are still alive. Would there be any announcement from a terrorist group to confirm that this is indeed what the whole mystery is all about? Any other scenario would likely be a confirmation of an unfolding tragedy.

Let there be hope that things could still turn out not as bad as it is now. The fact that the black boxes of MH370 are not beeping is a good sign that all is well. This is just an imagination of what could have happened but could be furthest from the truth.

Pray all is well.