Secession in Thailand

This thought must be in the minds of the Thais for a long time but not spoken. Finally it is in their lips and openly spoken as an option to the political crisis. The Yingluck govt may be appearing soft and may be taken for granted by the Democrats and the Bangkok elite. But beneath this apparent weakness and inaction is a very powerful message. It exposes the real thugs and trouble makers and how these people are out to destroy Thailand at all costs. Thailand can be led into turmoil with blood and bodies on the street to achieve their political goals with the support of the minority in Bangkok. The protestors are ignoring all reasons and sensibilities and the welfare of the Thai people. They just want to grab power.

The Yellow shirts are proving themselves to be unreasonable political thugs. The Red Shirts, being the real majority, are now the sensible party, cool, composed, non violent and seeking a govt to be elected constitutionally and democratically by the people. They have been patient and restrained and avoiding a direct and bloody clash with the Yellow Shirts. They are not going to give the army a reason or a chance to stage a coup against a popularly elected govt.

What is the next step or change of event? There could still be a coup or a revolt by the Democrats and the Bangkok elite. What are the options available to the Red Shirts and the majority of the Thais in the rural north? A direct confrontation is possible but this would only lead to more bloodshed and lost of lives and properties. Bangkok and Thailand could be burnt down, shut down. This is an option that the Red Shirts have shown to want to avoid.

A possible option is secession and with Thailand breaking up with the North under the Red Shirts and Bangkok and the South under the Yellow Shirts. Such an alternative could or could not see a civil war. The military could be split and how they would make up is still uncertain. If they are willing to part the country to avoid an open conflict, this secession option could be an ideal option to the impasse. They could still opt to start a civil war that would destroy Thailand and the Thai people. The blood letting would be unprecedented. The cost is huge and would cripple Thailand and not desirable to all Thais.

Which course would the Thais choose if force to decide when the Yingluck govt is forcefully dethroned? The Red Shirts would not take it lightly and would be forced to take a stand. And they are in the majority and have the northern Thaliand on their side. They are playing their cards close to their chest and have so far refrained from posing a direct challenge to the Yellow Shirts. Would the Yellow Shirts believe they have the support of all the Thais and push for a climatic change through the use of violence?

Would Thailand turn into a battle ground for the Thais to fight one another, or would the lesser evil of a parting of the two camps in peace? The Yellow Shirts are stubbornly holding on to an unyielding position, either accept their way or fight. The Red Shirts are trying to negotiate for a compromise without resorting to violence. This only emboldens the Yellow Shirts to dig in thinking that they have the upper hand. Either the Red Shirts be forced to fight or to take the break away path to minimize the casualties on both sides.