More thinking needed

Last week we have Sue Ann Chia from the ST examining critically the reasoning of HDB on the LUP programme in the two opposition wards. Today, ST's Jessica Cheam is re examining the numbers and claims of HDB on the 96% success rate of first time applicants for HDB flats. The numbers were quoted to prove HDB's position and looked quite convincing. What is important is to look carefully at the different sets of numbers and how they came about, how they were used to present a point. One example given by Jessica Cheam is that if 200 units were offered and there were 600 applicants, it was obvious that only 200 could be successful and 400 would be unsuccessful. How many percent will be the success rate? Definitely not 96%, not 50% but 33%. In the recent application for balance flats, 2132 flats were put up for sale and attracting more than 20,000 applicants. The success rate could only be around 10% with 90% balek kampong, come again next time. This brings out another issue about meeting the demands of flat buyers. If there are 20,000 applying in one exercise, how many flats must be built to meet this demand? At 2000 units annually, the demand, if static, will take 10 years to clear. Is HDB meeting the demand of the people?