Having said that, China is making AI cheap and able to proliferate in the Global South, while USA AI models cannot compete to fabricate propaganda widely, owing to its high cost of usage and adoption in poorer countries. That is going to dictate who will win the propaganda war in the Global South in the coming years.
The USA can ban all Chinese AI models in the country, but China is probably unfazed. What do 340 million people matter in a world of 8.3 billion? Taking in the Europeans just make a little more of a billion of Anglo-Saxon Whites. In any case, the redneck and hillbillies have already been brainwashed for decades, so un-washing their thinking is difficult and impossible.
Let me talk about ASML, the maker of EUV machines, whose position is not infallible. ASML depends on a wide global supply chain of more than 5,000 companies, spread out over Europe, North America and Asia. China holds just one aspect of that supply chain - rare earth magnets. The direct consequential impact of sanctions on ASML by China may be minimal and tolerable with alternative sources of rare earth magnets for the Dutch company. However, some of those entities that provide the supply chain elements for EUV machines for ASML also depends on China's rare earth. So, it is going to be who is the final arbiter of who gets to be punished more severely eventually and indirectly.
ASML will never reveal the shortcomings of its supply chain. Moreover, China just needs time to overcome its chip-making reliance on ASML. The estimate is that China will be able to commercially produce its EUV machines by 2030. That is just four years away as against the prediction of a ten-year lag time. We shall see.
Anonymous
China will be in a much better position than ASML building its EUV machine going forward, as its domestic supply chain is reported to be able to supply 90% of what such machine needs. ASML can just brush that aside as speculation, but the truth will be out when the shit hits the fan in about four years' time.
ReplyDeleteASML's supply chain, depending on 5,000 different entities around the world is its Achille's Heel. Any break in the chain is going to cause massive problems for ASML. We are seeing China attacking those small supply chains by denying rare earth magnet supply to them. Call it 'economic coercion' if they want, when ASML is also using 'economic coercion' against China with its DUV machines already sold and paid for by China. The sword cuts both ways and countries, companies and people better wise up trying to mess with China.
The irony is that what the USA sets out to cripple China is going to make China even stronger. In the past, China was content to rely on ASML for its DUV machine, never thinking about making them itself. Those sanctions imposed by ASML has forced China to find a way out of the problem, as China knows that going forward, being self-reliant is the only formula for survival. I do not think the USA had expected China to build its own space station, but China did that and more. China's Tiangong Spare Station is putting the International Space Station to shame. In any case, the ISS is expected to break up soon, so no point comparing.
Going forward, I do not know who is about to cross more difficult hurdles regarding chip making machines. ASML is going to be crippled when China steps up its action against its small supply chain entities. ASML can also forget about selling its DUV machines to China, a 30% market that it needs.
ReplyDeleteChina will make its own machines, find different ways to make good use of less powerful chips made from EUV machines. And China will make use of such expertise gained to dominate the chip making machine market as it always does with others.
Never mess with China. Lithuania found that out too late. Dutch Government tried to seize Nexperia and found out they just got hold of a letter box and an address in Holland, with the manufacturing still in China.
ReplyDeleteASML is going to find out the hard way too. The strangulation by China is just beginning.