4/27/2020

Covid19 - More than 30m cases in USA, first case could be as early as mid 2019

I wrote a piece giving the real reason why Trump was dragging his feet and acting stupid in not testing enough and not procuring the test kits for testing. And remember the first batch of test kits that his administration sent to the governors for testing were found to be faulty? At that time people took it at face value that it could be the fault of the manufacturer. But the picture is getting clearer. It was intentional, not meant to work, and not supposed to tell the true picture of infection in the USA.

Now we have another piece of evidence that Trump had no control over with, the anti body test conducted by Andrew Cuomo in New York. The preliminary findings in the first phase of testing showed that 13.9% of New Yorkers already have the antibody around 20 April. This means that 2.7m New Yorkers had already been infected by the virus as on this date instead of nearly 243,000 confirmed cases reported. Cuomo said this meant that many New Yorkers were already infected maybe as early as February.  This is just a ballpark figure.

Statistics lie and often been used by politicians to lie. But statistics when used correctly and objectively, can also tell the truth and reveal a story that is very frightening as in this pandemic. With the data collected by Cuomo, they could trace back when the first case of infection hit New York state.

It took 50 days for New York to confirm 243,000 cases of infection. How many days would it take to reach 2.7m confirmed cases? What is the relationship between the number 243,000 to 2.7m in terms of days of infection? I am sure the statisticians or mathematicians would have a formula to work this out.

From a layman's point of rationalisation, if 243,000 cases take 50 days, 2.7m cases would take 2700000/243000 x 50 = 556 days. Of course this is an over simplification. Another way to look at it is to use the estimated percentage of increases and work backwards. The Americans are reporting an average increase of about 6%, lower than the average of other countries. Singapore is seeing nearly 10% increase daily recently.

Can someone work out the number of days needed to move from 1 case to 2.7m cases in New York?  My guesstimate is that it would take at least 200 days to do so or the fastest 150 days or 5 months.  Between 150 days, 200 days or 556 days, it would mean that the first infection in the USA could be 5 months ago in November 2019, 7 months ago in September 2019 or as early as 1 and a half years ago in January 2018.

Whatever, antibody test conducted by Cuomo, it is telling a truth that Trump does not want the Americans or the world to know, that the Covid19 virus already infected the Americans way before it was planted in Wuhan, China. The population of the state of New York is about 8% of the USA. This means at least 30m Americans across the country have already been infected as at 20 April.

This is a truth that is slowly revealing itself despite all the delay tactics and pretences of Trump and his CIA operators under the guidance of Pompeo. No testing, no need to test, not enough test kits. There is no point in testing or lockdown as the infection is too widespread. Just open up, it has already washed across the country.

What do you think? How far is this from the truth that Trump and Pompeo are desperately trying to hide and trying to pass the blame to China? The normal testing of infected cases were obstructed by Trump in his fake ignorance and incompetence. But the antibody test by Cuomo is something he did not expect to come so soon. And this is only for the state of New York alone. More testing will reveal more numbers and the secrets of this pandemic will be exposed for the world to see.

The truth shall surface in a matter of time.

PS. Yahoo News reported ' Dr. Osterholm: “The FDA has all but given up its oversight responsibility for the tests we have on the market. Many of them are nothing short of a disaster. ” pic.twitter.com/MAXySI9q5D— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) April 26, 2020

Blood tests for coronavirus antibodies are viewed by many public health experts as a potential key for assessing the reach of the virus, determining potential immunity in individuals who have recovered from COVID-19, and ultimately reopening the country.

But officials have sounded the alarm about the efficacy of tests currently on the market, criticizing the FDA for greenlighting the products too quickly. The federal government temporarily stripped some of its regulatory barriers after it was scrutinized for its slow rollout of diagnostic tests....

During an earlier interview on “Meet The Press,” Dr. Deborah Birx, an infectious disease expert on the White House coronavirus task force, said the country needs a “breakthrough” in testing.
“We have to have a breakthrough innovation in testing,” she said. “We have to be able to detect antigen rather than constantly try to detect the actual live virus.” 

With the cat out of the bag, the FDA finds it pointless to control and suppress the testing of antibodies and could only dispel the accuracy of such tests. Not reliable... as the results could be very damning.

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

Likewise, the truth shall surface in a matter of time for Singapore in terms of the COVID-19 figures as well as Ho Ching's jackpot remuneration paid for by our national reserves money, for rainy and grainless days?

So are many other cannot see day light secrets hidden from public Interests?

Anonymous said...


COVID-19: Facts And Figures Are Also Facts To Figure

There are many ways to interpret a certain set of figures, just like looking at figurines.

Any facts and figures provided by any authority or organisation must be properly figured out by you. Don't jump to conclusions immediately, especially the conclusion they want you to conclude. This is called analytical thinking or critical thinking. Every matured adult should possess critical thinking instead of unthinking or refuse to think, just swallow bait, line and sinker like a hungry fish.

Presently, that the numbers of COVID-19 confirmed cases officially reported are going down from 1000 plus a day to less than a thousand a day is not good news but scary news. Why?

Reasons:

1. Change of timing of daily report. Past daily reports took the whole days figures, i.e. 24 hours. Present daily report at noon, takes 12 hours' figures. Since the timing of report changed four days (not counting today) ago, the 1000 plus figures automatically went below 1000. Notice?

2. At some dormitories, testing has completely stopped because the infection is so widespread, it might as well assume that everyone is infected. This reduces labour, time and resources which are urgently and badly needed at other places. So, the figures here have ceased to surface.

3. As many of the dormitories have thin out in order to provide safe social distancing environments for the workers, those who are assumed to be healthy have been moved out and they are spread out all over Singapore, staying at makeshift rooms under thousands of HDB blocks at the void decks. These foreign workers have not or are not being tested. So, the figures here cannot be ascertained.

4. There are at least 220,000 domestic helpers, maids, servants, health-care providers and nurses in Singapore. They tested and confirmed about 15 cases and said most of the maids are infected by their employers. Therefore, they concluded: Hey Presto! Maids are not infected by the foreign workers!

If you are not scared, it's your business. I am scared. Perhaps, some may say I am being unnecessarily paranoid? I wish I am.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

The changing of reporting time can only affect the total once and the 24 hour duration would resume again unless they keep changing the reporting time.

The most important change is not to test those already with respiratory symptoms and assume that they already infected with Covid19 and....not counted as tested to be included in the number of new cases. This is serious.

Anonymous said...

Embarrassing international News Headline that you won't see in Straits Times or CNA:

Singapore Becomes Asia’s Most Infected Nation After China, India

Singapore -- which has one of Asia’s smallest populations -- is emerging with the region’s highest number of coronavirus cases after the world’s two most populous countries.

Anonymous said...

Once bitten, twice shy.
Really, really, no face to hide.

Two months ago, Singapore was PRAISED sky high by WHO and other countries, even USA's Unscrupulous Mafia, Chief Don Trump.

Two months later, Singapore becomes not only Asia's highest inflected rate per million people, but the World's Top 5!

That is a great achievement for the World's highest-paid PAP Ministers and Top Civil Servants.

From 1st World To Third World! Make Singapore Even Greater than Before!

Now I know how outstanding they really are. Standing out like sore thumbs!

Once bitten, twice shy! Trust in the figures they present to you? I will never!

Message to ESM Goh Chok Tong:

When you pay $500,000, you get mediocre talents.

When you pay more than $1 million, you get incompetent talents.

When you pay below $500,000, you get Lee Kuan Yew and Dr Goh Keng Swee and Dr Toh Chin Chye and S. Rajarathnam and many of the truly altruistic, highly competent and efficient old guards who really and truly sacrificed themselves.

Compared with them you are $millions of miles away, GCT!

Anonymous said...

To be able to compete with China and India, the tiny city state Singapore is certainly punching above its weight!

Anonymous said...

@ All

Not say I want to say, but I must say.

On Feb 15, first cluster detected at SAfRA Jurong.

Now, 27 April, about 70 days later, there are at least 120 known clusters, including 27 dormitories, spreading all across the whole of Singapore.

This is really really really seriously serious!

Ah Peh.



Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Bill Gates said that the most surprising thing to him is Trump's unwillingness to ramp up testing, his is amazing.

Gates also noticed this queer thing. Actually everyone looking at this problem knows that this is not queer but intentional to hide the real exposure of his virus in the USA and when it really started. It started in the USA before it hit China. Testing would expose this hideous fact Trump is trying to hide.

Anonymous said...

After 4 months, the Americans still cannot sort out their ability to produce test kits to test the Americans in a meaningful way. They are so hopeless, do not know how to manufacture test kits? What is Trump Administration trying to hide by lying?

Anonymous said...

Trump Administration's unwillingness to reveal the real exposure of the corona virus in the USA can match the unwillingness of Singapore to reveal the real figure of some of its people's salaries!

Anonymous said...

Is it time to wake up Lee Kuan Yew?
Or
Is it time for the 70% of Singaporeans to wake up?

Anonymous said...

When did the Covid19 virus surfaced in the US?

Check the statistics on deaths caused by common flu in each State. Backdated to September 2018, you will see a gradual surge in the numbers of deaths.

These are usually non-whites.

Anonymous said...

The USA has practically lost control of the coronavirus outbreak. Trump now does not even want to hold daily briefings on it, for fear of answering pertinent questions. He has nothing good to report, only making hilarious suggestions that does not help his re-election in November.

Trump also cannot lose the November elections or he will face treason charges. If he loses, he no longer have power over the judges, witnesses and that means he is toast, unlike the impeachment fiasco where he can just subvert or change judges and put his people into positions to influence the judgement.

Just how disorderly and fragmented the USA administration has become under Trump is is now open for all to see. The infighting between the Federal and State Governors, the medical and scientific fraternity at odds with the White House, the squabbling between administration advisers and Trump, the seizing by the Federal Government of medical supplies bought by and meant for State medical staff usage, are all signs of a breakdown in the whole corrupt system.

In a word, Trump is not uniting the country to fight the virus, but instead creating disunity for the virus to spread as widely as possible. Such actions include planting ideas advocating early opening for business then reversing gear, and planting the seed of protest against the shutdown and even supporting his 'horde of living dead' to protest the shutdown in States controlled by the Democrats. Ventilate such States was what he said.

Anonymous said...

If the coronavirus was already spreading in the USA even before being planted in Wuhan, was it because of a leak in one of their biological lab as most people suspected.

If those who died had been tested and confirmed to be due to coronavirus, that would be the smoking gun. But they were smart to avoid or even forbid testing and any death then was attributed to the common flu.

Then China came to mind and what better opportunity than the Wuhan Military Games in October, timing the outbreak just in time for the mass migration prior before Chinese New Year and Wuhan's importance as a manufacturing hub in China. The perfect crime!

Anonymous said...

The American government is so corrupt that they could not see it anymore. It is their normal but they are accusing other governments of corruption.

Trump is doing all he could to destroy the American Empire and he is succeeding with the dumb Americans helping him to do it. The yearning and eagerness to open up is all there is needed to be done to kill more Americans in the days to come. They opted for it with gusto.

Anonymous said...

When an Empire is about to fall, all these things would happen, weak leaders, clowns would take charge. Good people being sacked and pushed aside. And the unthinking masses would cheer and follow the clowns and evil men blindly. Corruption everywhere in the system, even judges could be bought. Injustice is justice. Wrong is right, right is wrong.

Anonymous said...

When the whole US Government is corrupt and the people have been conditioned to living under corruption for centuries, corruption is now seen as the new normal.

Corruption is becoming one of the cornerstone of US exceptionalism. Just keep that in mind people!

Virgo 49 said...

USA KAPUT!

WWIII on the cards!

Better have them ai see beh see, ai wa beh wa!

Just like the Pay And Pay Agenda.

So no revolts and no Rebellions.

Their desperations sure create WARs.

Anonymous said...

Corruption has been the cornerstone and foundation of the US Presidential Elections, the US Presidency, the White House, the Pentagon, as well as the US Administration.

CIA is itself the distinct Instrument of US World-wide Corruption, with widespread dealings in drug trafficking, arms trafficking and human trafficking, bribery, coercion, intimidation, assassination and regime change.

Lobbying is high-end corruptions disguised as normal activities or approved donations.

Among all the various types/methods/classes of corruption, White Supremacists (Nazi related) is the worst.

Trump's father was a German and his mother was a Scottish. Trump is not his father real surname. He changed his surname after escaping from Germany to America. He was connected to or part of the German Nazi Organisation. That's why Donald Trump has the financing backing of the German Deutsche Bank. They are connected way back during his grandfather's time.

As a businessman, Corruption is part and parcel of his life and livelihood. It comes naturally to him. So is lying. Lying and Corruption go hands in gloves.

To understand Donald Trump you must understand his background, not just his voters.

Anonymous said...

Best scenario is social unrest leading to civil war and breakup of the United Snakes of America.

If breakup does happen, what about the US$25 trillions debt?

The US is talking about seizing China's holdings of it's treasuries. China better reduce it's holdings just in case that gangster in the White House loses his mind!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Evil Is Always Evil

Evil Empire USA owes China US$3 trillion.

China also bought at least $3 trillion of US treasury bonds.

Total of more than US6 trillion.

Evil Trump of Evil US Empire can play dirty and refuse to honor the debts. Plus introduce a new law to be passed by the Rubber Stamping CON-Gress in order to seize the US bonds purchased by China.

This is called international blatant daylight robbery.

There is nothing to stop the Evil US Empire from doing anything detrimental to other countries for its own selfish gains because the Evil US Empire has the might and muscles to intimidate and suppress.

Short of a Nuclear War, China cannot win any armed conflict with the Evil US Empire.

The self-proclaimed World Policeman, is actually the International Robber in disguise. Yet Bananas still cannot discern between evil and good.

Evil is always evil. It cannot change. The only way to deal with evil is to suppress it with overwhelming force.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

The fall of the American Empire is on fast forward mode. There is nothing that the Americans can do to stop it when He decided it is time to end this Evil Empire. First He sent in his Angel of Death called Trump to hallucinate the daft Americans that their days of glory is returning with this messenger of God. Everyday they were shouting hallelujah.

After all the damages were done by Trump, now comes the final nail, the disease that the Americans have no natural resistance, to wipe out this evil race. Sounds familiar? Indeed, this was what the Americans did to the native Indians, spreading diseases that they had no natural immunity, culminating in the biggest genocide of human history, death of 100m native American Indians, and the few leftovers are at the verge of extinction.

With this virus, the Americans are hapless, defenceless. Look at how they fumble and fell over each other scurrying just for medical supplies and basic stuff like masks, PPEs and test kits! They could not make them.

And all the dummies in Washington know is to print money and more money. They did not believe that printing unlimited supply of money has very serious consequences. They still think they are exceptional and can print all the money they want. This could be the last round of money printing before the greenbacks turn into worthless banana currency. Inflation would swallow everything like the inflation they caused to countries under sanctions and blockade by them, a taste of their own medicine.

And the economy is at a standstill, virtually collapsed. To restart the economy means faster spread of the virus. Not to restart means many people are going hungry, no income and unable to put food on the table.

The Americans are like between a hard rock and the deep blue sea. Only He is capable of doing this to the mighty Evil Empire. No one else could. There is no escape. The end is nigh. And not a bullet needs to be fired.

When the virus first struck China, they were beaming and passing sarcastic remarks to belittle China. Now all the silly grins are gone. The faces are grim with fear, with hopelessness. No amount of clever people could save the fall of the Evil Empire when He said.... it's done.

Anonymous said...

We still do not know exactly how badly affected are the US military bases around the world. You can bet such news will be heavily censored for security reasons. All the news seems to be centred on and steered towards how to pin the blame of the coronavirus outbreak on China and how to drag the attack dogs to join in to make the accusations stick. So far, many have joined in the chorus.

If so many warships are infected, it stands to reason that many US military bases are also suffering the same fate. Crews of warships have limited time on shore, but army camps are closer to civilian areas where transmission is more likely to happen.

The fate of the US nuclear submarine Tennessee, known to be infected, is not known and official news reports are unavailable for obvious reasons. There is possibly a cover up.

Anonymous said...

That is called Natural Attrition by Retribution! In other words, Natural Retribution.

Yes, the only way to bring down the mighty Evil Force (USA) in the World is by Natural Retribution. This self-created, self-boomerang and self-inflicted New Coronavirus, COVID-19, will be the ultimate weapon Angel Trump is using to destroy the Evil US Empire.

The huge numbers of death, sick and unemployment, lack of food together with protests and counter-protests will lead to internal conflicts.

The situation is ripe for a civil war - states against federal government, states against states, race against race, police against police, CIA against CIA, military against military.

The whole of USA is now divided into two camps - pro-Democrats and pro-Republicans. Furthermore, the pro-Republicans are divided into pro-Trump and Anti-Trump. Similar to the situation before the last civil war.

The fear is because of serious internal problems, the Evil Trump Administration will start a war with China, in order to deflect the internal attacks against him. He can also declare a State of War in order to permit him to be the War-time President for a few more years without re-election needed.



Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

This could be the other reason why he did not want to test more so that the virus can continue undetected and spread across America, or wash across America. Then he can declare a state of emergency or a state of war to remain in the White House.

Oh, is Singapore going to join the attack on China led by the US and Australia?

Anonymous said...

Singapore's Own Survival Is Already A Huge Problem, Yet Can Still Think Of Joining the US To Attack China?

Singapure keaders can join Trump's Evil Empire Forces and Trump's Lap Dogs in Australia to attack China if they want to. However, the Chinese Singaporean NSmen will probably not attack China. They will likely surrender to China and become part of the Chinese Occupation Force on Singapore Island to protect Chinese interests.

If the bananas and coconuts become too big for their shoes, they have themselves to blame when the full force of the Chinese Civilization rise up to answer the call of Mankind against Man-Unkind.

When that comes to past, then PAP will become Pigs of Americans Party. You know what pigs are good for? Roast Pork!

At the same time, Malaysia and/or Indonesia will take the opportunity to attack Singapore, when the SAF is stretched out and deployed to join Evil Whitemen to attack China.

It is very easy for Malaysia to capture back Singapore, even without the help of Indonesia.

Whether there will be war or not, in the long term, China will cut the Isthmus of Kra to build a canal large and deep enough for ships to by-pass Singapore. Then the strategic position of Singapore as an entrepot will vanish in thin air.

Moreover, after Lee HL is called back by his papa and mama, there is no more good leaders in Singapore. From the present 4G Administrative Managers (not leaders) none of them is a creditable leader, who has the strength, courage, wits, wisdom and gumption to lead Singaporeans towards a better future. They have been too used to a good life with plain-sailing career-paths, always protected by the power of government, and never faced any hardship before.

This 4G lot, selected by one who is very poor in selecting good people, is like the spoilt kids of a rich billionaire - very clever to spend money but don't even know how hard it is to earn the money. Always thinking of the easy way out. Taking the easy path is their forte. Dare not to try new ways. Sticking to 50-year-old LKY System of using the Parliament to pass new laws to subdue and suppress the people, to force people into obedience.

Such spoilt brats cannot handle a major crisis. The present COVID-19 Pandemic is a good example of their deficiency and incompetence.

And worst of all, they never own up to their blunders and to take responsibility for the mistakes that they have made which cost someone elses' lives.

With such low-grade leadership in place, how can Singapore help the Evil Whitemen to attack China without severe back-fire consequences?

Anonymous said...

All the evil attempts to destroy the Chinese pig and poultry farms by spreading diseases in China now only see their own meat industry closing down and facing shortages of meat. The farmers are also destroying their corns and milk for lack of buyers.

This virus is a real leveller. Evil begets evil. Bad deeds beget bad deeds.

Virgo49 said...


Some interesting facts

By George Soros:

If you are an American not living in a very remote & isolated place, how come you don’t know that :-

🔸 *400,000+ Chinese students* are studying /living in America and each year they will spend about *30 billion US Dollars*_ in America ?
There is no any other single country that can contribute so much to the American economy & education.
Imagine how many teachers will lose their jobs if these Chinese students are not here?

🔸 Do you know that there are about *two million Chinese visitors* each year coming to the US?
Do you not notice that all major tourist sites & stores in the US have signs in the Chinese language?
Each Chinese tourist will spend *$6,000-$7,000_* in America;
imagine how many jobs have been created by that.

🔸 Do you know that China will purchase about *7,000 Boeing aircraft* in the next 20 years
(China has already bought thousands of Boeing planes).
Is there any other country that contributes so much to America’s economy?
But the trade war will be a nightmare for Boeing; China will buy more from Airbus now. _

🔸 Do you know that besides America and Russia, China is also able to send *astronauts to space* and has the ability to build a *permanent space station*?
China is the first country that has landed a *probe* to the *”dark side”* of the moon.

🔸Wonder if you know that the *railroad & new trains* in Africa built by Chinese are even *better* than rail / trains in America?
And LA, Boston, NYC all have ordered subway trains *made in China* and the first group of newly China-built trains have been in operation in Boston subway.

By the way , high speed train systems are all over China with a speed of *350 km/ hour* while here in the USA we don’t have any of it. Even in the richest state - California -we don’t have funds to build one.

🔸Do you know that China is the *biggest overseas market* for three major *US automakers* ?
In 2017, Buick sold *1,229,804 cars*_ in China, Ford sold *951,396* and Chevrolet sold *538,671*.
Isn’t that the dream of any automaker in the world?

🔸Maybe you don’t know that in 2017 China Box office *Hollywood movies* raked in*3.26 billion US dollars* ?
Is there any bigger overseas market for Hollywood ?
Nope.

🔸Do you know that the Chinese have bought many *American icon businesses* including Forbes Magazine, Chicago Stock Exchange, AMC *(2.6 billions)*, Smith Foods*(7.1 b)*, Legendary movie studio *(3.5 b),* GE Appliance division*(5.4 b),* The Waldorf-Astoia *(2 b),* Ingram Micro *)6 b),* Motorola *(2.9 b),* Ritz-Carlton *(3.9b).*

🔸If you are an American, do you know that the *largest foreign holder of U.S. debt* is China, which owns more than *$1.24 trillion*?
Without borrowed money from China, the US government will be closed.

🔸Do you know that without *China’s vote*, the UN could not pass*sanctions against N. Korea*?

Obviously people don’t know these facts because they don’t get any positive news from the American media,
no matter if the media is left or right, CNN or FOX.
*American and Western media don’t like to tell people the truth about China. *

*They only feed you negatives news about China.*