Trump is happily raising tariffs after tariffs and the Chinese
reciprocating as much as they could on American exports. So, who is
paying for all the tariff hikes? It was reported that American trade
deficit with China for the month of Jul/Aug actually gone even higher
after the tariffs. What does this say about the effectiveness of the
trade war?
American exports to China are not only going to be more expensive, China
has even stopped buying from American farmers and looking for other
alternative sellers. When alternative sources are found, there would be
no need to go back to buy American produce. American companies in China
are also feeling the squeeze as their exports back to the US would be
more expensive too. Can they afford to close their factories in China
and move back to produce in the USA? For one, Boeing is losing all the
thousands of aircraft that China has ordered and would be ordering.
Deals cancelled.
What about Chinese exports to the US especially the consumer goods and
home appliances, including mobile phones and computer related products?
The Chinese products are so cheap that the 10% or 25% tariff would not
make them more expensive than the European or Japanese made. Ultimately
the American consumers would be the one paying for the tariff hikes in
more expensive Chinese products that could be had cheaper.
Trump’s tariff hikes are actually taxes on the American people. Trump is
actually raising taxes on the American people, forcing them to pay more
for Chinese imports. And of course the American govt would gain from
these taxes at the expense of the American people. It is all done for
the good of Americans, so they said.
Who ends up the winners and who ends up the losers?
There is another big loser, another little USA, ie Australia. After
trying to attack China like the Americans, banning Huawei and ZTE from
5G mobile phone operations in Australia, China has shut its door to
Australian products. As of today, 480 Aussie ships, loaded with cargoes
from iron ore, oil, LNG, farm produce, etc etc are circling outside
Chinese ports wanting to sell/unload their goods at cheap sale price,
but China is saying NO to them. Just like the American soya bean ships,
they are just sailing around the Chinese ports praying for a change in
Chinese policy, and an end to the trade war to let them in.
The Aussies may have a lot of raw material to sell. But without buyers,
or big buyers like China, the raw material and commodities are
worthless. The African countries are benefitting from the trade war.
China is buying from Africa instead.
33 comments:
As the trade war intensifies, China will seek to de-couple its trade link with Uncle Sam. Trump's promise to his citizens and businessmen that they would be favoured over others will backfire. Over 100 businesses have petitioned to Trump to stop the trade spat as consumers had to bear the extra cost. Trump's pigheadedness is a result of his mistaken belief that China is in great difficulty and exerting more pressure will bring China to her knees. WSJ quoted a senior Chinese official as saying that Trump is pointing a gun at China's head and he has to stop the war on his own or wait for his final miserable loss of the war.
@ RB
The "suckers" always end up paying for everything the govt does. Sometimes the govt does "good" like build better infrastructure, schools, healthcare...that sort of thing. Most taxpayers (aka working people) don't mind seeing their taxes used in those ways.
However, all govts and all govt programs have a "money impact" on Joe & Jane Taxpayer.
Tariffs are TAXES, so the people who eventually end up paying are working people (who consume) and the businesses who distribute China goods, or use them to make stuff.
It is easy to understand why businesses are hopping mad. They get whacked on multiple fronts as importers and exporters. Because tariffs make goods more costly, there will be (depending on how elastic specific mrkets are) decreses in sales volume in both cuntries. i.e. Chinese buying less US goods, US buying less China goods. Without sales, businesses can close shop, and send their workers on a long "unpaid vacation".
So far, this trade war has not had any impact...even China's reponse was "kachang puteh". Will it get worse? Will these motherfuckers sit down and thrash out some deals? Or will this drag on for decades? Too early to tell...it can go several ways, and ways we can't even imagine.
Because China's trade balance is so huge, they will tend to suffer more. However the Yuan is weak, and if they weaken further, that would decrease the impact of tariffs....which is probably a BAD THING because Trump will just whack them again...because he is a SORE LOSER and INSANE...but also happens to be the Biggest Swinging Dick in the world at the moment.
Like all wars, trade wars can take surprising turns to reverse fortunes of the underdog and the dominant players, making the future unpredictable.
So far, no one is giving a flying fuck: "Ah 10%? No problem lah...business as usual.". 🤣
Matilar, be careful lar. It's ok to put your view across but to insult trump, he may get pissed off and seek u out. May be don't even need CIA to take u out but ask little USA to confine u in a cell just for a day with African Tua Kee. Then u ended up unable to walk properly for days after Kena sodomized Lar. 😂
Trump imposes 10% tariff. Chinese renminbi depreciates 7% this year. Net effect +3%.
China counter imposes 10% tariff. Chinese renminbi depreciates 7% this year. Net effect +17%.
US trade deficit with China widens further! Trump looks like cock!
Breaking News:
Ex-PM of Malaysia, Najib Razak, who has already been slapped with seven charges - three for criminal breach of trust, three for money laundering and one for abuse of power - has been arrested again yesterday by the MACC and then, after taking down his statements, handed over to the Police Commercial Crimes Division.
He is expected to appear in court today at 3 pm.
According to one source, Najib is likely to be slapped with another 20 charges.
In years to come, what is happening to Najib may similarly happen to corrupted leaders in The Red Dot?
@ 1009
Are you sure about Trump? I think he knows things you don't. For example:
China consumer's Average Disposable Income: ~$10 per day, Shanghai highest: ~$13 per day
US consumer's Average Disposable Income: >$100 per day.
Compare and contrast:
Singapore average household income: ~SGD9k per month, ~USD$6.5k = USD78,000 per annum, = $214 per day.
I have no idea how much of that is "disposable", but I would guess it'll be the same or slighly HIGHER than the US. Don't fuck around...Singaporeans are RICH and their cuntry is fucking rich.
Huat ah!
Tariffs means governments collect more from consumers & sellers.
Uncle Sam are screwing Americans, and China Party screwing Chinese.
Sounds familiar...like Pappies collecting more & more from Sinkies.
IMO, globalisation is a con scheme invented by the west after the GFC. They con China into thinking she can sell to whole world, keep buying equipments and plants from the west. The west just need to change president, china ends up with all the obligations to pay for the equipments and plants but can only produce at less than half the capacity. More credit shit will follow. Bankers laughing all the way.
Oz will sell to uncle sam when uncle sam production kicks off. They will need plenty of raw materials to build plenty of stuff and they can buy them cheaper since aud has depreciated 30% against usd.
Do not underestimate the wolves (west). They worked as a pack. If they do not, its just pulling your feet.
Facts: US can still do OK without China, sure americans will suffer from higher cost of living and some job losses, but their economy is pretty much insulated & self-sustaining --- at most go back to 40s, 50s, 60s era.
OTOH China will suffer if US closed off to them --- easily 2/3 of their exports are to US or US companies. Can china survive? Of course they can, but will go back to 60s, 70s era --- the problem is how many current cheenas can take that?? Most probably will have people's revolution / uprising --- this is what CCP is trying most hard to avoid.
Everybody knows this --- that's why the consensus of millions of investors are reflected in the diverging prices of US & China stocks.
And that's why critics of Xi & Xi's political rivals are getting bolder as china companies & workers get more affected.
As long as US n China trade wars are confined to themselves ok lah. US will look for new suppliers both domestic n overseas though costly. China will look for new markets. This is a buy n sell world. Businessmen n businesses will find solutions. Govts messed up, people solved n cleared the mess.
Uncle Sam's companies invested over $250 billion in China and ginning up nearly $500 billion in sales each year. China is Uncle Sam's biggest and fastest growing market. By expanding his trade war, Trump is thinking small. China understands trade war. It is opening a second front by initiating a currency war. The devaluation of the yuan mitigates the effect of Trump's trade war. China's recent launch of the petro-yuan will loosen the global stranglehold of the petro-dollar. China is still holding on to the $1.2 trillion Uncle Sam's bonds. Once China starts to dump them, it will send interest rates through the roof. It is the atomic bomb in its financial war weaponry.
Trade War - Who Will Prevail?
Revolts or not, we will know very soon. From the US side, if the Democrats make in-roads in the US Mid-Term Elections in November, Trump will most probably lose his 2nd Term Presidential Election.
Trump has made too many enemies from within his Administration, within his Republican Party and within his country. His support base is already showing signs of weakening. He may therefore not be elected for the second term if the impact of his Trade War hits his voters hard.
The next US President to replace Trump will likely be from the Democrats. This Democrats Presidential Candidate will probably be a woman. She will dismantle what Trump has done, tit for tat what Trump is trying to do to President Obama's legacy.
From China's side, President Xi Jinping has already consolidated his power aand and strengthened his power base. Almost all political leaders within China have rallied to his side. That's why he could remove the 10-year limit imposed upon the Presidency. His opponents are only a few. They are weak and afraid of showing their tails. They won't be a force to topple Xi. Any talk of removing him from power is wishful thinking.
As for the Chinese people, they have suffered more than 100 years of humiliation by Western Powers and Japan. They know that they have to unite as One People under the Central Government of China when in the face of Western Powers' Intimidation.
Trade War is also War. It aims to kill the Chinese people by the millions through starvation and miseries. Therefore, in order to survive, the Chinese People must be vigilant, resourceful and united. Any dissent will have to be swiftly squashed and weeded out. Under a war situation, there is no room for political opportunists to flex their muscles. So, revolts within the CCP and Military are far fetched.
Moreover, other than Mao Tze-Tung during the civil war period, Xi Jinping is the only one leader to have put the military under the command of the CCP. All the present military commanders are either his own people or are loyal to him. There may be one or two traitors within the military but it is not a big problem.
This Trade War is a test on the collective will power of two Peoples - the Americans and the Chinese. It is a test of citizens' endurance and national unity. Whichever country's people can endure longer and stay united, will be the one that comes out smiling.
The winner of the trade war is the one which has a higher threshold of pain. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross believed that China has run out of bullets to hit back as Trump imposed another $200 billion in tariffs. Ross could be right or profoundly stupid. The fresh tariffs derailed Treasury Secretary Steven Munchin's effort to restart trade war dialogue with his Chinese counterparts. Trump believes that Chinese officials will go to America to sign an agreement of surrender under the threat of further tariff hikes. Trump and Xi have different dreams.Trump wants to make America great again. Xi wants a rejuvenated China.
Since all these lay people are predicting the future---and by all accounts it's not looking good---I thought I'd hatam my own 2¢ layperson's cock-talk
North Americans can chill out more since they are all moving closer to 100% legalization of marijuana!😂
Quick, somebody alert Temasek & the GIC. Money making opportunity!
Invest the reserves!
Invest the CPF! Become SE Asia's richest DRUG DEALER. 100% LEGALLY! 🤑☠️
Whilst the China Chinese are working like crazy to grow their global dominance, North American Chinese from Vancouver to San Francisco, along with their Canadian and American brothers and sisters will be enjoying themselves LEGALLY HIGH, eating more food, having more fucking laughs and probably engaging in more wild sex. All this whilst their cuntries slide down the scale of global dominance...
Makes you wonder...who are really the smart ones here?
In the end it is the whites against China. You just wait and see.
That said, China is going big in South America and Africa, and of course in Central Asia where the Belt and Road will open up the region for trade among the countries and China. These are not countries dominated by the whites.
The trade war is not going to bring jobs back to America. It is a fallacy. Car manufacturers are now completely automated. And so are many other heavy industries like steel and aluminium. Machines have taken over most of the jobs that America lost to China and will never be coming back. Trump is just still sleeping on the job. He is just out to crash the global economy so that he and his co-conspirators can move in and snap up all the bargains, things that they have done after every recession that have made them filthy rich at the expense of other people's misery.
Three things are not going to happen with Trump's trade war.
USA's trade deficit with China will not go down. And that goes for the rest of the world.
Jobs will not be going back to the USA, at least not to the extent that Trump envisaged. Most of the jobs lost by the USA have been taken over by robots, not by the Chinese completely.
This trade war is anything but easy to win for Trump!
China will also likely use this trade war opportunity to wean itself away from being too largely dependent on the USA for much of its food imports. And in the long term other countries agricultural sector will benefit at the expense of the USA farmers. Once supplies from elsewhere are regular, the Chinese market will be lost forever to USA farmers.
Trump is telling the world that China is out to interfere with US politics by targeting farmers who supported him when the mid term election comes around.
What does Trump expect China to do otherwise? Just accept Trump's tariff and still support him to get re-elected. Trump is absolutely shameless and stupid to think China will just sit by and meekly accept the bullying?
Trump is a fucking dirty, slimy, triple-crosser. He is making use of his present position to increase his wealth further. Each time he makes the yuan drops, his children quietly buy up. Each time he makes the stock markets dive, his son-in-law and the Jews buy up.
His aim now is to make China sell off the US bonds so that the price will go down. Then he and his co-conspirators will buy up.
In the end, the Higher Power, the Natural Power, will bring everything to Equilibrium. Because no man is able to upset the Natural Balance in the Long Term.
The whole Universe is operated by a certain Set of Natural Laws in Perfect Harmony. Once a while, you will see a meteorite run out of control, and the fools will think it is a good-luck wishing star and rush to make a wish. How can a falling piece of rock burning itself out in Space be a lucky symbol? The no-brainers usually think so. Why? Because great grandmother said so.
Trump is just like that piece of meteorite, whose time in existence is wearing out fast and swift, showing a burning trail as he falls from the sky. And all the fools think that he is their wishing star ..... Only time will be the witness of the Natural Power in the Universe!
1MDB Debacle - Cash Is King Najib Faces Life Imprisonment
Malaysian prosecutors slap a further 25 charges on ex-PM Najib Razak today, making a total of 32 charges so far.
Najib Razak has pleaded not guilty to all the charges.
The charges are mainly related to the multi-billion-dollar state investment fund 1MDB created by him.
64-year-old Najib, if found guilty, may have to spend the rest of his Cash as a King behind the high security prison walls and enjoy being sodomized by friendly prison mates.
The new charges piled pressure on the former leader as he reeled from a tumultuous fortnight in which unrelated money-laundering charges were laid against his lawyer Shafee Abdullah.
In addition, Najib's key allies have also resigned from UMNO trying to distance themselves from being implicated.
UMNO, the main angle in the Barisan Nasional Coalition that run Malaysia for 60 years, is also being investigated for a series of corrupt practices and may be banned if found guilty, especially with regard to abuse and misuse of donations and public funds.
It looks like things for Najib are getting worse. According to reliable sources, the Malaysian Attorney General is preparing charges against his family members, probably his wife Rosmah Mansor, his son Nazifuddin who was seen galvanizing with a Taiwanese actress in Taiwan enjoying wine and music in a high class restaurant the day Najib was released on bail, and his step son, Riza Aziz, of "The Wolf Of Wall Street" fame.
In the mean time, the mastermind of 1MDB is still very illusive and difficult to tackle.
Malaysia may need China's help to arrest Jho Loh. But after Dr Mahathir cancelled all the Chinese Mega Projects in Malaysia, it may not be easy to obtain China's cooperation in this matter.
Interesting Year 2019 with Najib's high profile Court Cases and also likely his wife.
Media subscriptions may also ran high sales. Maybe took a couple of years to convict him.
Beat our City Harvest Debacle. Rosmah Najib no need dance skimpy tops beat Sun Ho anytime.
Hismuddin reaching out to Mathatir. May turncoat as Prosecution Witness for survival and promotion.
Also, wonder whether PAPies will dare have GE in 2019???
Celebrate 100 Years of British Colonization with Pride.
They gonna have new laws to clamp down "False News" such as inflated Ministerial Salaries soon.
I believe that if PAP fell UMNO, through its own undoing, many within the PAP would become targets for many investigations.
Whoever takes over from the PAP, therefore, cannot be a weakling like the WP or SDP. It has to have very wise, strong and determined leaders and dedicated versatile supporting "troops" and "combatants".
I do not envisage a peaceful handover of power from the PAP, like UMNO to PH, because the PAP leaders are vindictive and bad losers.
The handover of Aljunied GRC to WP is a case in point that support my notion of a difficult, even violent, handover of power to the incoming government by the incumbent PAP.
Merdeka anon, if Najib really get sodomized, it will make Son from heaven very scared leh as I think many inmates would love to sodomize him also. Very jialat.😰
Trade war is ok but hope it will not escalate into real war.
After selling all the make plastic machinese to china, uncle sam wants world to ban plastic.
Difficult to be smarter and more ruthless than those that can even kill Jesus.
Lesson: do doubt them.
@ all
The media has led the world to concentrate on Trump's tarriffs against China's exports to the US. For the money-hungry MSM, anything to do with China---positive is good, negative is even better---draws eyes and thus generates ad revenue, which is the main business model of the MSM.
Trump has tarriffs not only with China, but with the EU, Mexico and Canada as well. Trump has already killed the USA's involvement with the TPP. He also wants to end NAFTA. (this is serious).
Trump wants to introduce legislation: the "End of Offshoring" act, which punishes US corporations who relocate their production overseas. (that means Trump is also AT WAR with US citizens: shareholders, workers, management of "evil" out-sourcing US companies).
The Source of Cheap Money for Americans
Ah yes, the US Treasuries Market. Foreigners pay a premium for US Treasuries so that the American consumer and businesses can borrow greedily all that wonderful cheap money.
When foreigners earn US dollars, they buy securities in the most liquid of all markets, in fact, it is the source of most of the world's liquidity. Short-term rates have (until now) been fucking ridiculous...a few kachang puteh basis points...so that US trading partners who keep their USD earnings in treasuries are PAYING A PREMIUM (fucked up interest) for the benefit of American corporations, govt and consumers who are able to borrow LOW and fund their profligate activities.
Tariffs wars have the potential to decrease trade earnings. Therefore all that money which is suppose to CREATE LIQUIDITY for Americans to enjoy, can potentially DRY UP.
Many corporations have taken on debt. Those which have healthy cash-on-hand...no problem. However there are a significant number of corporations who are in serious debt (look at the US corporate bond market) and who will COLLAPSE when liquidity dries up, and interest rates rise. Interest rates are already trending upwards due to quantitative tightening (QT). Now there is an added (potential) driver of a decrease in the quantity of money---i.e. LIQUIDITY due to falling foreign sales of US treasuries.
US consumers are highly leveraged too: college debt, mortgages, credit cards...you name it. Few of them are savers...it's economy-wide "borrow and spend" mentality. When liquidity dries up, and interest rates rise...well, it's a story that has repeated in history hundreds of times before...going back THOUSANDS of years.
Have we evolved as a species? Apparently not. For millenia it has always been "follow the money" for the prudent ones. When money is tampered or tinkered with, shit happens. This will not change.
Right! Human species will not change. After every reboot, call it evolution, call it progress, but still following the money trail and shit happens and it will end, again and again and again. Never will change!
Dotard Trump just letting out German Gas. Even Merkel, genuine German Gas sick of him.
How can he said America helped China to be wealthy.
He thinks China is taking monies from him like beggars without their Hard Work.
They themselves lost their competitiveness and wants to blame others for their woes.
Spent time and energy and monies stirring shits and create wars world wide.
Still behaving like Cowboys with aggressive talks we have more bullets to spare.
Have your bullets to kill your own Americans that's we appreciate.
The war with China has been an ongoing process. Military contact between the two Special Forces occurred in 2003. This silent war, not to be spoken, happened in the Myanmar Chinese border. The American Special Forces, just like those in the Ppines, were training the rebels to be an extension arm of the CIA covert operations against govts that were not friendly with the Americans. Duterte, watch out.
In this operation, Chinese Special Forces went in and destroyed an American training camp, killing all the rebels. Two American Special Forces officers were arrested on site.
On their way back, Chinese Special Forces received info of American Special Forces closing in on them. They laid an ambush and killed 12 Americans and wounded 6. The head of the American Special Force team, a major, was caught and all three were taken to China. The Chinese did not kill the wounded Americans nor taken them as prisoners. They dressed up their wounds and left them to wait for their rescue.
There were several other contacts between the two Special Forces and nearly a 100 American Special Forces had been terminated by the Chinese.
Sept. 23 (Xinhua) --
The 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in Algiers wrapped up on Sunday by maintaining the current oil output level, amid calls from the U.S. to raise oil production in a bid to curb mounting prices.
In fact, OPEC and non-OPEC members in Algiers snubbed the calls of the U.S. President Donald Trump. A couple of days ago, Trump accused OPEC of monopolizing the oil market, and called the cartel to raise production in a bid to reduce prices.
"The sanctions and the trade wars imposed by some powers will have an impact on the global economy and therefore on the oil market," Russian Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, noted in his remarks at the opening of the meeting.
The Russian minister was referring to the sanctions that the United States imposed on Iran, a key oil producer, while "the trade wars" were referring to the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China.
In a clear response to Trump, OPEC President, Suhail Mohamed Al Mazroui, said that "OPEC is not a political organization and does not succumb to political pressures."
Suhail, who is also Emirati Energy Minister, added that "OPEC 's top mission is not to push towards raising or lowering oil prices, but to achieve a balanced market."
"We have to be wise; we should continue to anticipate supply and demand to avoid previous mistakes that affected the oil market balance," he stressed.
Suhail further invited other oil producer countries "to join the OPEC-non-OPEC agreement and help safeguard and sustain the global oil market balance."
Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih supported his Emirati counterpart.
"There is no agreement to raise production, and oil prices at 80 U.S. dollars per barrel would be better off for both producers and consumers," Falih told reporters.
The JMMC, co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia, comprises four OPEC member countries, namely Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Venezuela, and two non-OPEC member countries, Russia and Oman.
It aims to ensure the achievement of the objectives of the Declaration of Algiers on reducing oil outputs by 1.8 million barrels a day to adjust production in the range of 32.5 to 33 million barrels per day to boost plunging prices.
US President Donald Trump on 26 Sep delivered his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, which US experts say is indicative of a zero-sum worldview that is detrimental to world stability and prosperity.
Trump touted his "America First" foreign policy and defended actions under this belief.
While highlighting his commitment to "putting sovereignty above global governance," he attacked globalism, and lashed out at several international organizations and treaties, such as the UN Human Rights Council, the International Criminal Court and the Iran nuclear deal, all of which his administration has said it would exit or impose sanctions against.
Kyle Ferrier, an analyst for the Washington-based Korea Economic Institute of America, said, "Trump's speech attempted to reframe his 'America First' foreign policy into something that would be more universally understandable: patriotism. Dressing up his foreign policy, however, is not going to allay widespread concerns about US withdrawal from global governance. Trump's foreign policy is a mixture of anti-globalism and traditional conservativism, which don't often align."
Dan Mahaffee, senior vice president and director of policy at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said, "In his speech, Trump drew on his own belief in American sovereignty, as well as the advice being given to him by advisors like John Bolton and Stephen Miller. In this framework, international institutions present a threat to American sovereignty, especially at a time when issues like immigration, trade, and the role of frameworks such as alliances and multilateral institutions limit American freedom of action. While they espouse a belief in the sovereignty of nations, they also acknowledge that there are instances where another nation's reliance on the United States for military protection or economic ties presents an opportunity for the United States to have legitimate grievances about those policies that they pursue that are counter to U.S. interests," he added.
"It does shift significantly away from the benefits that the United States has achieved in its partnerships and alliances with other countries as it better reflects President Trump's zero-sum worldview."
Christopher Galdieri, assistant professor at Saint Anselm College, said, "Since his first flirtations with running for office, Trump has seen the United States as getting the short end of the stick when it comes to relations with other countries, particularly in the realms of trade deals and multilateral agreements. Trump appears to view relations with other countries in zero-sum, bilateral terms -- there should be two parties to agreements, and the United States should get the better of the other country in the deal. Similarly, he dislikes groups like NATO because he sees them as somehow taking advantage of the United States."
Douglas Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, "Trump's speech is a campaign statement for the mid-terms, making incredible claims for success. He really does not care about other country's systems, so he means not to interfere in that. But if a country poses a threat - military or economic - to the US, the US will work against it. The speech is equally uninformative about policy."
Matthew Rusling.
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