4/04/2018

Post by Concerns of a Heartland Sinkie - Part 4


As mentioned in late 2016 in MSN and (mentioned) again in early 2017, a head and shoulder trend was formed in terms of the tide of globalisation and at least a 70% chance of an unmistakable trend reversal?

1) 911 marked the "left shoulder"?

2) The 2008 GFC the "head"?

3) And Jun 2016 Brexit & Nov 2016 "Brexit+++" marked the right "shoulder"?

The current wave of globalisation that took off massively in the 1970s could be in reverse gear?

However, way back in late 2014 and again in 2015, the warning sirens of possible de-globalisation was sounded (in MSN) but noboLEE paid any heed (to it)?

As mentioned previously (& repeatedly) in 2014 to 2017 (in MSN), the last cycle of internationalisation (aka globalisation) was in even higher gear than the current but the trade wars that started in the 1890s culminated 2 decades later in the WW1 that saw Pax Britannica ceding its preeminent world policeman role and the global hegemon title was left unfilled ......, can any reader recall? (Pls KEE CHIU ...)

Subsequently, the then world order collapsed in a power vacuum and an anarchic world order ensued.

During those inter-war years (1919-1938), the global economy went into a tailspin, wall street collapsed in 1929 and precipitated the first ever global Great Depression?

The late Professor Charles Kindleberger, in his 1973 book "The World in Depression: 1929-1939", expounded his world famous theory of HST (Hegemonic Stability Theory).

The late Professor passed away in 2003 (at the ripe old age of 92) after the 2nd Gulf War broke out.

The fast recovery of Western Europe was to a large extent due to the late Professor spearheading the then Marshall Plan in the post-war reconstruction.

Many policies that the late Professor advocated that are key determinants of a stable world order are now been "thrown into the incinerator" ...?

The immutable MSN wiseman lao hero wrote in his post dated 4/03/2018: "Hundred Flowers Movement Revisited 百花运动" under the final two short but thundering concluding paragraphs:

Quote

"People who did not know history or learn from the mistakes in history would be condemned to make the same mistakes and bury themselves only to verify that history would repeat itself with their folly.

Thank you very much for a precious but painful lesson in history."

Unquote

Given China's latest retaliatory counter protectionist measures announced this afternoon, a full blown trade blows between the world's 2 top most preeminent economic powers and giants seems unavoidable UNLESS the perpetrator who started this potential full scale trade war back down ...?

In 1985, Sg's founding PM went to Capitol Hill, Washington and spoke in the joint US Congress session [see Youtube video: https://youtu.be/X6CZ3C0niPg], arguing against an oncoming trade war then between the Americans and the Japanese which culminated in the 1987 Plaza Accord and an immediate 30% revaluation of the Yen vis-a-vis the major world currencies in particular the USD but which also subsequently led to the "destruction" of the then world #2 economic powerhouse and the subsequent Japanese economic malaise since 1990 ...?

This time unlikely there will be another iconic world leading figure to thwart the US of firing the 1st trade cannon (which already happened) and more importantly there will not be a repeat of the 1987 "Plaza Accord"?

What next?

8 comments:

Heartland Sinkie said...

Uncle RB,

Thank you for posting this article and correcting the 4 typos :)^_^

Virgo49 said...

Idi Amin famous quote:

"There is freedom of speech, but I CANNOT guarantee freedom AFTER speech"

PAP following his thoughts after Select Committee submit the report to Parliament? ?

Anonymous said...

The House of Ox has met with a Bull, that stubbornly refused to budge. The Bull is also cunning like a fox and thick-skinned like a turtle, and very professional in crying crocodile's tears.

This Bull cunningly sold his father's house to his younger brother for $24 million. Valuation was $12 million. In addition, he told his younger brother to donate 50% of the purchase price (j.e. $12 million) to Charity. In total, the younger brother paid $36 million for the dilapidated deserted old building.

After getting $24 million, thr Bull cleverly donated the proceeds to Clarity and in return got a $72 million tax exemption. Why was that so?

That wad so, solely, ecause for that year in particular, very very extremely coincidentally, miraculously, fantastically, and inexplicably the Inland Revenue Department had decided to become extraordinarily, profoundly and curiously generous in giving away $3 tax exemption (rebate) for every $1 donated to a Charitable Organization.

Then this thick-skin-like-turtle Bull quietly and secretly, behind his younger brother's back, treacherously formed a Secret 'Gang of Four" with powers similar to China's Cultural Revolution lynch-pin "Gang of Four" headed by Mao Tze Tung's 4th wife Ching. The Secret Gang of Four schemed a plan to take back The House of Ox, by-passing all necessary legal process and deprive Mr Bull's younger brother of his rights as the nee owner of the property.

Hoe clever?
How cunning?
How shameless?
How unethical?
How immoral?
How ruthless?
Howr treacherous?

Some more can shade crocodile's tears in pa-lee-ment?

A very intriguing story fit for Hollywood's Thriller, Drama, Suspense, Comedy and Mystery?

Anonymous said...

959 pm great entertainment. Thanks

Concerns of a Heartland Sinkie said...

Uncle Redbean, below is the sequel to Part 4 on the intricate relationship between the world's current top 2 economic and military powers. As usual, please amend/ edit as you deem necessary and fit for your kind consideration to be posted in MSN. TQ

Part 5: Thucydides Trap vs Kindleberger Trap

Current Harvard University Professor Joseph S. Nye Jr. who served as the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council between 1993 to 1994 under the Clinton Administration and subsequently as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs between 1994 to 1995, wrote in early Jan 2017 in an article in ProjectSydicate.org before the inauguration (20 Jan 2017) of current US President Donald Trump about what history has in store for him ... The following are extracts from that article:

"As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares his administration’s policy toward China, he should be wary of two major traps that history has set for him. The “Thucydides Trap,” cited by Chinese President Xi Jinping, refers to the warning by the ancient Greek historian that cataclysmic war can erupt if an established power (like the United States) becomes too fearful of a rising power (like China). But Trump also has to worry about the “Kindleberger Trap”: a China that seems too weak rather than too strong.
Charles Kindleberger, an intellectual architect of the Marshall Plan who later taught at MIT, argued that the disastrous decade of the 1930s was caused when the US replaced Britain as the largest global power but failed to take on Britain’s role in providing global public goods. The result was the collapse of the global system into depression, genocide, and world war. Today, as China’s power grows, will it help provide global public goods?
In domestic politics, governments produce public goods such as policing or a clean environment, from which all citizens can benefit and none are excluded. At the global level, public goods – such as a stable climate, financial stability, or freedom of the seas – are provided by coalitions led by the largest powers."

As many foreign ministers and public servants working in foreign affairs would be aware, the current international political system of nation states has existed since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. Another renowned Harvard University political scientist at the John F Kennedy School of Government Professor Graham T. Allison Jr. observed in his 2017 book "Destined for War: Can the Americans and China avoid Thucydides Trap?" that since the late 15th century, there were about 16 historical case studies of Thucydides' Trap out of which 75% of them (12 cases) ended up in wars and the remaining 25% (4 cases) avoidance of wars.

In 2015 when China President Xi JinPing met the then US President Barack Obama, President Xi noted in his speech: "The US and China need to work together to avoid Thucydides Trap - destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers: should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves."

On that, former US President Barack Obama said: "I don't agree with the interpretation of Thucydides Trap that an established power must have conflict with an emerging power. Major powers like China and the US must prevent conflicts as much as possible. I believe the two countries are capable of managing the disagreement."

Alas, when current US President Donald Trump was elected, the first "act" he did was to "shred" the TPP agreement "into pieces" ...

Could US President Donald Trump still have gone ahead with his recent trade walls he erected against several countries' imports ranging from solar panels, refrigerators, steel, aluminium etc if he did not oppose TPP at the outset?

To be continued ...

Anonymous said...

KNN, so many typo errors. Sorry, I re-post again: Hope no more errors.

The Tragic And Pathetic Story Of The House Of Ox

Once upon a time, far away in the distant galaxy known as Pandora, there was a star named Brilliant Ewe. Within the Brilliant Ewe Solar System was a planet called Red Dot. The only inhabitants lived upon Planet Red Dot were known as Sinkies. These Sinkies were extremely stupid, obedient, subservient and cowardly. As a result, they did not present any problem to their only Ruler, popularly and respectfully referred to as "The Ox".

The Ox ruled Planet Red Dot for 901 years. When he died, he left behind his house knowxn as The House of Ox.

The House of Ox was bequeathed to his Eldest Son who took over the Throne. However, before he died, The Ox had given specific instructions for The House of Ox to be demolished after his death. These instructions were also stated very clearly in his Last Will a prima facie legal document, which probate had already been granted by the High Courts to the Executors of the Estate of The Ox.

Unfortunately, as if the death of The Ox, their long-time ruler, was not enough of grief and loss, there arose a family feud among the three heirs of the Iron-Fist, No-Nonsense Ruler Ox. The family feud lasted for three years, yet still there was no light nor end of the tunnel could be seen.

The family feud arose because The House of Ox had met a Bull, in the Eldest Son of The Ox, The Bull refused to allow The House of Ox to be demolished. He wanted to preserve it for his own selfish political agenda.

He wanted to use it as a symbolic monument for respect and homage by the citizens, so that he could mobilize the masses to support his hidden political agenda.

So, The House of Ox met with a stubborn Bull, who refused to budge. The Bull was also very cunning like a fox and thick-skinned like a turtle with hardened shell, as well as very professional in shedding crocodile tears.

This Bull cunningly and conveniently sold The House of Ox to his younger brother for $24 million. Valuation was $12 million. In addition, he told his younger brother to donate 50% of the purchase price (i.e. $12 million) to Charity. In total, the younger brother paid $36 million for the dilapidated deserted old building.

After getting $24 million, thr Bull cleverly donated the proceeds to Charity and in return got a $72 million tax exemption. Why was that so?

That was so, solely, because for that year in particular, very very extremely coincidentally, miraculously, fantastically, and inexplicably the Tax Department had decided to become extraordinarily, profoundly and curiously generous in giving away $3 tax exemption (rebate) for every $1 donated to a Charitable Organization.

Then this thick-skin-like-turtle-zhell Bull quietly and secretly, behind his younger brother's back, treacherously formed a Secret 'Gang of Four" with powers similar to one ancient Planet's Cultural Revolution lynch-pin "Gang of Four" headed by the Ruler's 4th wife, coincidentally known Holey Jinx.

The Secret Gang of Four schemed a plan to take back The House of Ox, by-passing all necessary legal process and deprive The Bull's younger brother of his rights as the new owner of the property.

Some more. when The Bull's younger brother accused him of abuse of power, he shed crocodile tears shamelessly in front of everyone in the Assembly of The Yes Men.

Is it not a very interesting, fascinating and intriguing story suitable for Hollywood's Thriller, Drama, Suspense, Comedy and Mystery?


Clever, cunning, shameless, shsmeful, unethical, immoral, ruthless, or treacherous?

Or, All of the above?

Anonymous said...

Why did Lee Hsien Yang and his wife go into exile?

Could something sinister be going on behind the iron curtain, with a new knuckle-duster waiting in the cul de sac?

Anonymous said...

Knn, I am very worried so sleepless night thinking of sinkie land future whereas the 70% are sound asleep.