6/27/2016

Whither The Gloom and Doom for Post-Brexit UK?



Conventional wisdom failed; and the proverbial perfect storm brews in the financial market teacups. The globalscape of economic and trade is beginning to shift, gradually and forever.    

And so the United Kingdom (UK) begins her lone, political and largely psychological, journey out of Europe through a Brexit referendum vote of 52%-48% on Thursday, 23 June 2016, in favour to leave the European Union (EU); which, truth be told, the UK has never been wholly integrated into.  

Gone are the grandiose, delusional and oft-times, nightmarish, dreams of European unity originated in the 15th century and which gathered momentum at the end of the 2nd World War.  In 1972, the UK eventually joined the European Economic Community (EEC) by becoming part of the 1957 Treaty of Rome which established the EEC with the goal of a free trade area with a common tariff.  After a series of related and developmental Treaties, the European Union was formed out of most members of the EEC in 2009. 

The initial gloom and doom predictions for UK in the wake of the Brexit vote are largely misconceived and the doom pundits ignore the fact that the UK has been very much a “reluctant” (EEC and) EU member who was courted with special terms and conditions to become “more European”. 

The UK was allowed to keep her own currency, the British Pound, instead of merging it with the common European currency, the Euro. The British Pound therefore enjoys an independent exchange rate with the EU as well as other trading partners without being unduly impacted by the economic policy vagaries of many EC countries eg. France, Germany, Greece, Italy … etc.  EU currency and financial regulations have no effect on the UK’s own independent policies and measures.  

The ensuing financial markets volatility lacks compelling fundamental causes and makes very little logical sense since the Brexit votes did not change any factors affecting the volumes of trade, which is governed by contracts, and short-term investments, whose prospects and profitability are not suddenly impacted by the votes.  Yet, the British Pound lost 8% against the US Dollar within just 40 hours, as financial players shed sterling pound (why?) for the US greenback (seriously?). 

Never mind the simple economic truths: That 44% of UK exports goes to the EU, and which also accounts for 53% of UK imports. UK exports to the EU sustain about 10% of the UK workforce (about 3 million workers).  In contrast, EU exports to the UK provide more than 8 millions EU jobs.  Economists should also know that these would not change significantly in the coming years to justify the drastic shifts in the currency exchange rates that the market players have incited and instigated.

UK-EU trade is expected to continue and even improve since the UK is a major key export destination of many EU countries. Post-Brexit UK may face some new rules with some EU countries but these are likely to be mitigated by their legacy mutuality of benefits.  

We see once again the stroking of fears by short-term profiteers and speculators.  The explosion of fears and greed for speculative profits exaggerate and inject unfounded and imagined uncertainties to create profiteering opportunities for the smarter market players by fueling short-selling as they await the long-game victories that begin immediate in the next and following weeks.

The administration of UK laws is also not governed by EC legislation, legal systems and jurisdiction.  For example, the European Court of Justice has no power over British Courts of Law. 

The UK enjoys many exemptions from EU rules which must be complied by other EU members.  For example, EU passports have to be produced when entering the UK; unlike the convenience of free travel without need to show EU passports when entering other EU countries.

EU annual membership fee costs the UK 12.9 Billion British Pounds (after the rebates agreed in 1984 from the full UK 17.8 Billion British Pounds).  This includes UK contributions to other EU Institutions.  British farmers, researchers and other beneficiaries received back about UK 6 Billion British Pounds.

What the pundits of Brexit gloom and doom did not want the rest of us to know is that the UK would save at least 350 Million British Pounds per Week in annual membership fee once the UK is out of the EU. 

It is also estimated that compliance with the massive 170,000 pages of the Top 100 EU rules, directives and regulations cost UK businesses an annual 33.3 Billion British Pounds.

The UK is the top recipient of Fixed Direct Investments (FDI) among the EU countries.  In turn, she is also a major FDI contributor to many EU countries. Its proximity to the EU remains a core competitive advantage, which is further enhanced by her relative political and security stability as compared with other EU countries. Most of her other major investment partners are however not from the EU.  

The truth is the EU needs the UK much more in many ways beyond financial contributions. Post-Brexit EU is clearly much poorer financially and materially, as well as much weaker structurally with lesser strategic resources in terms of global leadership influence and prestige.  The EU exit terms for a Post-Brexit UK are therefore expected to be quite favourable for the UK.

There is no rational basis for any gloom and doom predictions for the future of a Post-Brexit UK. Market volatility following the Brexit vote is man-made, and the more powerful men (and women) in the financial markets have a greater hand in provoking and fomenting it.

Post-Brexit UK is finally freed of EU ideological, economic and political shackles to pursue her own destiny and dreams.  It is timely for the UK to reverse its 1968 “East of Suez” decision to retreat from its imperial power bases from the Gulf to the Far East, and replace it with an updated non-imperial engagement plan with equal partners in the British Commonwealth that focus on all the common issues of global concerns.
   
Like a Japanese “ronin” samurai without a “master”-brand to associate and anchor her affiliation, post-Brexit UK as a major political and economic player must now roam the world stage in search of a “uniquely significant and influential” global platform to re-define and re-calibrate her relationships with the global community in all the emergent issues of trade, economics, terrorism, security, immigration, climate change and sustainable development.

The challenges and prospects of a post-Brexit UK will portend well for ASEAN in a new dawn for old relations.  

38 comments:

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

I agree with what Michael Heng wrote about Brexit and has written a piece about it, stuck in my hacked laptop. May try to post it tomorrow. Too many articles on Brexit today.

And yes, too many doomsayers and nothing good to say about Brexit. I take a contrarian view.

patriot said...


ASEAN is no different from EU.

Member States are together in Bloc and Name only. Each and Everyone of the Members harbour THEIR OWN AGENDA AND MOTIVE.

Anyway UK itself has waned much as an empire and had lost much of it's clout after Second World War.
In terms of economic progress, it could have fallen behind Germany, France and Italy, not to mention it's NON-EU Member neighbours Switzerland, Danmark, Sweden and Belgium etc.

Singapore Membership in ASEAN is a mirror image of UK Membership in EU.

patriot

patriot said...


Correction to

'NON-EU Member Neighbours......'
to
Other EU Member Neighbours.....'.

My apology!

patriot

Anonymous said...

As expected, the western mainstream media has the loudest voice airing propaganda inciting fear, gloom and doom in the ignorant masses to vote against those with common sense voting to exit EU.

Anyone knows that western presstitutes only serve the elites, real journalists and reporters are a rarity in the west and its lackeys.

Anyone with even an ounce of common sense also knows that exiting EU is the only way to be truly independent, be it from EU and needless to day from the empire of chaos.

There is no such thing as 'global' catastrophe, 'global' collapse etc.

The world is huge; some countries will be doing much better than the others.

The world is now own by the west and any of its lackeys.

I laughed my ass off when I saw how shameless Slaves' Times AKA Suckers' Times publishing articles related to AIIB, investments in China, etc :)

This is the same junk newspaper, full of anti-China articles and copy-and-paste western mainstream media :)

Hermit said...

There are reports that some Scotlanders are looking for a second referendum to secede.

Anonymous said...

Corrections :

The presstitutes are not limited to the West. They also exist in any of its lackeys.

The world is not owned by the west and any of its lackeys.

Anonymous said...

It's really ironic that scotlanders knows being independent from UK is the right thing to do and yet they are also ignorant to the reality that being a EU member means no independence, be it from EU or from the empire of chaos :)

Anonymous said...

Long Live the Queen and the British Empire!

Anonymous said...

Likewise the independence of HK would do Hongkies good. No tying down to red tape admin China. HK has progressed so much further than mainland China. That being the case, so would Taiwan be better off being independent. In fact during the great years of the four Asian Tigers, HK and Taiwan were two of them.

Oh yes, since we're at it, make that independence for Macao too. It was flourishing without China's interference but stagnate now. As for Xinjiang, if they were to be independent, it would be able to utilise all its oil and mineral resources without China stemming its growth. Let's also not forget that Tibet was stolen and needs to be independent too.

There's so much eager talk about breaking up of other nations and federations yet the vociferous support for a united China on this Chinophile site. How about tasting your own medicine you have been prescribing for others?

Anonymous said...

/// British people are smart to realise the danger of staying as part of the EU. Their decision to leave the EU sets the pace and example for others to leave the sinister organisation. /// Michael Heng

/// I agree with what Michael Heng wrote about Brexit and has written a piece about it, stuck in my hacked laptop. /// redbean @ June 27, 2016 9:01 am

You see the benefits of UK leaving the United States of Europe (EU).
But you do not see the benefits of Hong Kong & Taiwan leaving the United States of China.

You clearly see the disadvantages of the European Union-The Unites States of Europe.
But you are blind to the disadvantages of the United States of China.

You are blind to the destruction and backwardness imposed upon the Chinese people as a result of Qin Shi Huang's successful attempt at creating the United States of China from the 7 Warring States two thousand years ago.

You are blind to the loss of the Cantonese language and traditional Chinese forms of writing when Hong Kong gets re-absorbed back into China.

You guys are truly the dafted sons of Qin Shi Huang.
Dafted by 2,000 years of Qin Dynasty propaganda.

Anonymous said...

redbean
just for your easy reference.
I'm the banana who wrote my opinion @ June 27, 2016 10:37 am

I did not write @ June 27, 2016 10:31 am even though I agree with the points he is making.

Anonymous said...

There are so many reasons for the exit. Veritas' microscopic mind sees only one. Pea brain, true and true. Using his analogy, we can say that Taiwan and HK want out because of extremist China policies who kill dissidents. Like Tianenmen.

Unknown said...

White people have been done in by their own progressive ideology. The EU could have become the new roman empire, yet they choose Islamic refugees over the interest of their own people. What a bunch of cucks.

Veritas said...

Europe is doom because Europe is going to be "sensitive" people, next moving upwards to a land of pedo-phile, polygamy, jihad, genital mutilation.

Fortunately UK is out of this shit -- temporary but she has too a big Islamo population.

A country with a lot of Sunni Islamo will be shit, low IQ. For example Albania are white man, but she is the most fuck up state in Europe. Similarly Istanbul formerly east roman is the smartest people in the world before. Now she is muslim and they are the most low IQ people.

Bosnia is one of the msot fuck up state and her cousin who speak almost the same lect as her, the Slovenes are the among the wealthiest.

Best example are Lebanese Christian and Egyptian Coptic Christian, both doing better than Islamo, despite same race.

Convert to Islamo is sure way to poverty, low IQ, superstitious.

But Allah may just make oil gush out from your bed room, knowing these folks are not able to stand on their feet.

Anonymous said...

Lycurgus, the "Islamic refugee" problem is their own undoing. Didn't they support US in the senseless wars in the Mid East, that caused the refugees to flee into Europe? But that's their governments' work. Many NGOs are compassionate and pressure the governments to accept refugees.

I see that you have no compassion for these refugees who are themselves victims and are running away from the bombs. Instead you see them as pests.

Veritas said...

The one Europe support is SUnni against good Muslims like Alawi, Shia, Houthi and PKK. I dream day and night the Shia coalition will give Sunni humiliating defeat and Allah granted my wish. Sunni despite have an appearance of macho man, is now getting slaughtered in Syria and Iraq.

Cheers.

And most amusingly, Sunni from fallujah and Aleppo now speak to newspaper they are VICTIM of ISIS.

True and false.

Fucking Sunni did support and cover ISIS, but once under fucking ISIS, they regret. Also under ISIS actually bring nothing but war, death, misery diesease, siege and poverty...etc

I hope middle east sunni learn their fucking lesson.

Nevertheless I always commented, SUnni have hope. Sunni is like pre-renaison and pre-enlightenment Christian.

The world will emerge after Sunni wake up, and everyone will be better.

The MOST FUCK UP religion is Hindu. I rather commit suicide than live in Hindu land. ISIS is heaven compared to fucking India land of rape.

Unknown said...

@Anonymous 12:07

Only 20 percent of the refugees are from Syria, the rest are economic migrants from other parts of the world. They brought these people in to virtue signal. Do no get me wrong, i think Islam is a great religion. But proximity of different cultures equal conflict.

Anonymous said...

Isn't it the Syrian refugee influx the final straw? You mean to say that there was no objection to immigrants before that? Pleeeeaaaaase...... The refugee influx has been around for a looooong time. The moment the Us and Euro countries bombed Saddam's Iraq, there already was a refugee problem. But at that time the Euro countries didn't care much because it was the neighbouring Mid East states that were absorbing them. Then when the war escalated, the seams burst and it affected Europe. Isn't this refugee problem started by the West?

Proximity of different cultures is an opportunity for acceptance and diversity. It is intolerance towards others that is causing the conflict.

Unknown said...

"Proximity of different cultures is an opportunity for acceptance and diversity. It is intolerance towards others that is causing the conflict."

Does this mean Singapore has to be culturally enriched by accepting north Indians and Pinoys ?
This is the same brainwashing PAP uses, do not buy it.


Anonymous said...

Anything wrong with Pinoy or North Indian culture? What America says that accepting Chinese culture is a threat to America and hence, the need to shutdown Chinatown? Racist? Yep, then why not the Pinoy / North Indian case?

What we Sinkies worry about is the jobs they take from us. They are otherwise welcome here. As tourists and guests. But let's not get overboard by being xenophobic and say that their culture should not be allowed.

Anonymous said...

Muslim woman asks a question and probably wishes she didn't

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAoXgZLRee0

Anonymous said...

I agree with RB in post one. I support Brexit. Brexit is positive to world economy. UK is Sg colonial master. UK prosper will help sg as the latter can emulate the model especially in democratic development. The old man followed Tony Blair to immigrate multiple millions of foreigners to ruin the middle class of mid skilled workers. Blair got kicked out before his term. UK s problem became some indicators for the population policy to U turn. The white papers are still indicator the depth of using foreigners to run the sg economy. This Brexit is another indicator against Blair s concept.
The main difference between Leave and Remain is Immigration. Money wise, Leave can save UK at least 10 to 40billions pounds of contribution. EU has many countries to join it to receive legally given free money. Main contributors to EU are Germany, France, UK, Holland,.. The rest are at the receiving money ends. But UK has little say about laws impose on UK from EU. If Remain wins, then UK will be merged into EU including their money earned in UK. That is the problems UK voters had to decide at the cross road: want UK laws or EU laws? No control on money as EU will decide the funds. EU is coming out a 1 trillion gbp budget this week. EU wants to have its own army. Yet UK has strong armed forces. See the wastage?
The pound drop in market is good for British manufacturers export. Most manufacturers support Brexit. Scotland wants EU. No Tory leaders bother to comment. But I think the Tory will not mind Scotland to get out. Again it is funds. UK at least pay Scotland 18 billions pound to fund for Scotland. Scotish budget was 9.4% deficit 2015. It will be good if Scotland joins EU and ask EU to pay for the deficit.
Another reason Tory is silent is because there is no leader now. Cameron is sitting there not resigned yet. He declines to talk to EU on exit.

Now Tony Blair to labor mp to block the Brexit in parliament. It will be another big problem if Cameron is a sitting PM. Cameron started this, yet he is not taking responsibility to bring Brexit through. This is a sad point on such leader.
One interesting point about Brexit. There are millions want to revote Brexit. With interesting support: North Koreans has 25000 signatures to support UK Brexit revote. Vaticon city the pope s city has only 800 citizens, it has contributed 40000 signature to support a revote in UK Brexit.
Brexit is fun. I am glad UK citizens have regained their courage to live on their own and not to depend on immigrants to stir up crimes and killing. I like the old UK: people were friendly, nodding heads greeting even strangers on the road. Certainly not the culture of those who sleep in Heathrow airport over night or everywhere. Those are not real Brits though they speak with the London accent .
Bravo to Brexit.

Veritas said...

There are good and bad culture but today Jews lie that all culture is equal.

Indian culture is the world NUMBER ONE MOST FUCKED, and they are everything wrong. They have a lot of fucking unique feature no one else has

1. caste system
2. hereditary prostitute
3. hereditary shit collector
4. satte (widow burning)
5. dowry killing
6. look down on black
7. shit on street
8. Eunuch (not our usual LGBT but Eunuch)

Indian culture need to be extinct for the world to be a better place.

Anonymous said...

Britain left because the EU is infested with sick economies. The Brits could smell a rotten apple from a mile away.

As for Tibet and Xinjiang, if left alone, they would spend most of their times praying and chanting. Maybe that is good.

As for Taiwan, Hongkong and Macau, the Chinese economy has overtaken them in every respect. Left on their own they would decline without the Chinese market.

Don't be stupid.

Anonymous said...

In Islam, anyone who converts away is an apostate.
Apostasy is punishable by death.

In Chinese race, anyone who criticizes the Chinese culture is a banana.
Bananas is punishable by ridicule from Chinese zealots.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Veritas, have to delete your post. Pitching one race against another is too sensitive to handle.

Veritas said...

RB what I said is true.

Indian here pretend not knowing they receive the most insult from Malay. They blame Chinese.

Unknown said...

@veritas

I find the Tamils in Singapore to be a cool bunch. We even worship the same gods like the monkey god. And Chinese even take part in Thaipusam festival. Even Chinese triads have many Tamils.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Agree, the original Sinaporeans have been living quite comfortably together for the last 40 years of independence and before that. Where on earth can you find Chinese temples and Indian temples side by side or in the same building and both praying to each other's gods? This is uniquely Singapore.

Veritas, some truths are too uncomfortable to be said. Sometimes it is better not to say them, especially in the media, main or social media. No one like to be told they have an ugly scar on his face. That is why there is a need for sensitivity.

For those hiding under anonymous, post responsibly. There is no anonymity. If you cross the line they can trace you if they want to. Talk about issues rather than being personal. All those that got into trouble were dealing with personal attacks.

Making a police report electronically is so easy, provided there is a genuine case. If you want to snook the police to fix other people, you will kena snooked by the police. They are not stupid.

Veritas said...

The caste system in Singapore are real. You just need to research into Singapore history and you get to know Indians want to create animals in Singapore.

Even Rajaratnam our enlihghten FM came from family full of shit head. How does the other compare?

I support Malay Islamofascism fascist ways against Hindus(but not Chinese). Hindus need to convert out.

In fact Malaysian Hindus are fucking caste head and they created dalits among their people. Fortunately Malay have too much guts and these coward dare not touch malay.

Below in Malaysian news paper.

The Indian leadership in Malaysia has always been a subject of criticism. The Indian leadership has not seen a leader with capability to steer the community for socio-economic growth. To date Malaysian Indians are still plagued with fundamental issues of identity card issues, job opportunities, Tamil schools, poverty, displaced estate workers,university seats, alcoholism, gangsterism, etc.
......
The root cause for the disparity among the Indians are the caste (jati) system inherited from India. The recent fiasco over MIC presidential elections is surrounded by the caste support for the top post. The Mukkulathors and Kounders are the dominant caste and the current president is aligning the candidates with the respective caste. Despite their education, the leaders are still playing the caste sentiments in politics. In this context, whom shall we blame for the backwardness of community? The leaders for campaigning based on caste or the community for practicing the caste system till today without regards to human values?

The social stratification of the community has hampered the progress of the Indians and we are the root cause for our downfall because of the choice to practice caste system. Mahatma Gandhi, BR Ambedkar, Periyar, EV Ramasamy spent their lives fighting for the eradication of the caste system. Their achievements helped uplift the Dalits (untouchables) in India. In Malaysian context, the caste system is the root cause for our political and economy failure and the Indian community in should take responsibility for the society’s collapse.

Unknown said...

I think the reason why PAP brings in a lot of north Indian Hindus as opposed to Malay/Muslims is because they see Islam as a threat. They are also smart in bringing in Hindi northerners vs southern Tamils. If they had brought in only Tamils, the Tamil community would be a huge voting bloc that would advocate for their own rights. Thus posing a threat to the PAPs interest. By having many disparate small groups with distinct identity means that the interests of all these groups can be played against each other.

So instead of having 3 groups, Indians, Chinese, Malay. They now have a lot more, Chinese Chinese, Singaporean Chinese, Hindustanis, Tamils, Ang Mohs, Pinoys and Malays. Since the interest of all these groups will conflict with each other. The PAP can play off each of this groups against the others. Maintaining their hegemony of Singapore politics.

Veritas said...

Former FM Dhanabalan said FT Indian impose caste system here. "Thing is changing, especially as a result of the new Indians coming in who are mostly professionals. So that's a good thing.
But they bring other bad habits with them which most of the Indians in Singapore have forgotten or got rid off. They have a very strong sense of caste."

b said...

EU is a dictatorship not a union. Its a wet dream came true for the few elites who controlled it without the need to answer to any electoral. EU should only collaborate on economic and not political issues. The earlier this world gets rid of EU dictatorship the better just like the world gets rid of USSR. Look at Greece, some many girls selling their bodies for a meal. They should be in school. Brexit is a good thing.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Veritas, got to delete another of your posts. You are making me work very hard to scrutinise your posts.

Please spare an old man ok.

Veritas said...

It is unfortunate that Chinese need be politically correct and our minorities can keep inventing lies attacking us.

Today young CHinese people think we are racist and minorities also believe in their own lies.

What I talk about Islamofascism and Hindu caste system in SG are true.

My sins are I expose the dirty secret of our minorities.

Anonymous said...

Democratic voters are torn in UK about the Brexit votes.
Scotland had 1 over millions voted for Brexit and 1.6 millions over voted for Remain. The SNP first minister Mrs Sturgeon campaigned for Remain said Scotland must not leave EU.

Does it sound like child game? Or this Sturgeon was doing a fast one trying to ask for a referendum for Scotland to leave uK? Boris Johnson had asked Sturgeon when they went into debate if Scotland were to stay in UK. I could not remember the answer.

Now Sturgeon said the Scotish parliament will block the Brexit.
Why did Sturgeon wanted to join the debate on Brexit? She should have indicated Scotland will have referendum if UK leaves EU and shut Scotland from the question of IN or OUT of EU. But her action now seems to take advantage of UK s silence due to things needed to arrange for the OUT.

Scotish people cannot follow democratic decision, follow the majority. Scotish people should be out of UK to save the UK money and let EU to deal with it. The question is: will EU approve a cash hungry Scotland to join it? While the UK the cash rich contributor is leaving?

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

If you haven't watched it yet, here it is: Brexit, The Movie

The Brussels elites of the EU colossus have a true "aristocratic" life. Their pay packets can rival our Singapore ministers. Plus they have their own salons, shops, restaurants etc...which only they can go to. Completely exclusive.

C'mon Singapore elites and aristocrats...you are being left behind. You can do better. Time for more pay rises and some exclusive lifestyles. The Pyramid Club is small-time compared to what Eu parliamentarians are enjoying in Brussels.

LHL, and the PAP...you want to be No. 1 right? Then fucking get busy!

Anonymous said...

Watch out for this breaking news:

EU elite proposed to take over control of all other countries: army, taxes, budget, immigration controls and EU will be headed by Germany and France, after Brexit.

The news was leaked to Poland TV, and Poland was furious to have lose control, if the proposal is accepted.

In my view, England should stay out of EU. Scotland should lose control and stay with EU as it cannot work with balance budget as a independent country due to budget deficit of close to 10%.

London wants to go independent is bullshit and naive as the new major really over estimated his capability.