9/18/2015

Tharman – Theoretically will never become the PM

In my pre GE article I put up a scenario that if the opposition could win 30 seats, there is this remote possibility of Tharman making a move to unseat Hsien Loong to become the first Indian PM of Singapore. That scenario is based on the assumptions that Tharman has an ambition to be a PM, that he would not be a PM as long as Hsien Loong is around and in the pecking order there is Chee Hean above him. In order for him to become a PM, he has to engineer a split in the PAP at its weakest moment, that is when its popularity is at its ebb when the opposition could win 30 seats. When that happened, Tharman would have a bigger bargaining power if he could win 20 or so PAP MPs to his side. He could then ask Hsien Loong to step down or he would take the break away group to form a coalition govt with the 30 opposition MPs.

With the landslide victory, the situation is totally changed. Hsien Loong has received the best endorsement he ever had, with a 70% popular vote and wining another seat from the WP. Also, the winning margins were huge and WP nearly lost Aljunied. With this convincing win, Hsien Loong’s position is strongly entrenched. No one can ever think of removing him. A split within the PAP is now even more remote.

Hsien Loong would be very comfortable sitting through this term for the next 5 year. By then Tharman would also be in his mid 60s, would be considered too old to be a PM and a younger PM would be in line should Hsien Loong decided to vacate the premiership. He could go one for another term.

Under the present scenario, there is no way for Tharman to be the first Indian PM of Singapore short of a miracle. Maybe that is the destiny of Tharman. Sorry Tharman, tan ku ku.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...


I m a fan of Mr Tharman!

Yes! I m his fan! Yes! I m his FAN!

Will Mr Tharman be the PM in the next Cabinet to be announced soon?

Cheers.

Virgo 49 said...

Chan kee chiu could be the next warm up seat PM like lau goh until LHL's son back from his overseas sojourns.

Then we have the 3rd generation Lee Dynasty perpetuating in sinkieland.

But at least he will not put his uncles or tang mein or same doors to the firing squads.

Cheers.

Anonymous said...

//Under the present scenario, there is no way for Tharman to be the first Indian PM of Singapore short of a miracle.//

If botak Mr Trampoline takes over, many oldies sinkies likely end up "physically, financially, and even mentally, emotionally " wreaked and breaking many bones, twisted necks, paralysis etc subsisting under his mantra of substituting a safety net for trampoline. .......

When sinkies oldies fall from great heights through the cracks say 40+ storeys high, instead of landing on a safety net, botak say he will replace it with a trampoline ......

Sinkies, Use your brains.

From a great heights landing on a trampoline, do you think the old, loose bones of oldies can withstand ( and survive ) such an ordeal and come to a stationary halt after a long sustained, torture and torment being throw up and down by the bounce of the trampoline after landing from a great height?

Maybe botak can get an oldie in his 70s to volunteer for demonstration how it can be done with a trampoline instead of a safety net under a great height .......

How abt lao goa?

If Lao goa can stay intact in one piece after falling onto a trampoline, say from 60th storey in a Raffles Square building, then maybe others working nearby such as at the MBFC can start to consider ......

Otherwise, botak ideas/ suggestions of substituting a safety net with trampoline are going to "torture" many oldies to death ......

Luckily, 69.9% gave PM a resounding mandate ......

Is that the main reason for GE 2015?

What did LSS say during one of the rallies?

Heng ah?

Anonymous said...

Though not all knows that the fortune does not know his own, most do see that he/she, the fortune teller cant be very fortunate to live a very good life.
Otherwise, there is no need to do fortune telling.

Anonymous said...

Why would Tharman want to be PM? Does he need the extra money?

Or what policies can he do better than what Hsien Loong is also able to do? OK maybe as DPM and being himself, he communicate different from and maybe better than Hsien Loong but this alone may not motivate him enough to take on as PM. He probably would like Hsien Loong to continue as PM, and not him, in order to take the shit from Sinkies for any accidental bad effects from policies.

Anonymous said...

Though not all knows that the fortune teller does not jnow his own fate, most do see tgat he/she(fortune teller) cant be very fortubate to live a very good life.
Otherwise, there is no need to do fortune telling for a living.

Anonymous said...

// Hsien Loong has received the best endorsement he ever had, with a 70% popular vote ..... //

To lump the entire GE 2015 results regardless of areas and parties contesting could be quite FOOLHARDY, to say the least ......

A closer "pathological anatomy" and dissection of the different seats likely would yield a closer fit of the actual electorate voting patterns than a one size fits all approach.

1) Those seats polling between 21% to 29% should be given a closer look.

Anonymous said...

The alternative parties were rightfulky and deservedly thrashed by PAP and dumped by voters.

Time for Oppies to repent and learn their lessons.

Anonymous said...

2) Those areas which polled between 21% to 29% could be telling a different story than the rest of the picture.

3) Assuming the 30% core opposition votes still stands based on past 5 elections including PE 2011, GE 2011, GE 2006, GE 1997, GE 1991 ( GE 2001 could be sharing similarities with GE 2015 ), it could imply 2 things : i) No or negligible swing voters chose opposition at the ballot boxes for those who polled less than 30%; ii) at the same time, partial rejection even by hardcore opposition supporters of such candidates and/ or parties ranging from 1% to 9%.

4) In other words, all the small fringe mickey mouse parties might do well to merge/ coalsce their candidates/ resources around the 2 main opposition parties which have a slim hope of holding their own against the ruling party behemoth juggernaut machinery, brand recognition, credibility etc

Anonymous said...

5) After stripping out those seats which polled below 30% due to ( total ) rejection by PAP and swing voters and partial rejection by hardcore opposition supporters, the balance seats results yielded another picture.

6) In those seats that polled above 30%, the hardcore opposition supporters are probably intact. The support from swing voters likely range from about 1% to about 27%.

7) In other words, if presented with creditable candidates and parties, the voters support level for opposition candidates hovers around 39%.

Anonymous said...

Those seats polling between 21% to 29% should be given a closer look.
Anon 10:06 a.m

No need to look, parties like Sing First, RP, NSP and even SPP can harakiri, for all voters care.

As for SDP, please Dr Chee, close shop and join WP. If WP don't want you, then just retire lah, for heaven sake. More than 20 years already and still nothing.

And for WP, please try hard to be as strong and powerful as, if not stronger, than PAP. Or else be contented just to have only Hougang MP in Parliament next GE, and provided PAP is kind enough to make Hougang still around.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Sing First is a joke, putting a 67 year old as candidate. They thought he is another LKY, albeit a younger version?

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

8) The voters message is probably quite clear. If either one of the two conditions or both conditions are not met ( which are creditable parties and/ or creditable candidates ), either one or 2 black eyes for the contesting opposition candidates/ mickey mouse parties.

9) If some opposition candidates are moles, then it cannot be helped. But for the rest, those who are genuine in their beliefs for the opposition causes, one way for them to reflect is to stand in front of a big mirror for the next 365 days in a row for 5 hours every day ( with the polling result printed on a placard and hang in front of their neck ). If they still decide to go ahead, salute them for their guts and determination and wish sinkieland and sinkies all the best.

10) The remaining 2 opposition parties who still have some hope of facing the ruling behemoth should take stock ( if they are of worthy calibre to still be wearing an opposition hat ) and chart how to be a viable alternative that genuinely contributes to the long term well being of sinkies and sinkieland and NOT being the greater of 2 evils in every election.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

Tharman is the smartest guy in parliament. Also one of the most logical, well-reasoned and "on-the-bola" people on the island. The guy is a walking BRAIN, and he can converse with ANY ONE of the other bright sparks in the world. As far as ideas go, Tharman is no slouch there either.

...but...

He ain't no PM material. Why? He is far too "nice", and thus probably a TERRIBLE liar. You have to "appear to be" a friend to people you can't fucking stand---all for the benefit of the state.

Being PM means often you have to do things against your conscience or something terribly horrific, e.g. imagine a scenario where the "best decision" means some will die but the majority will live. Tharman is NOT the guy with these "attributes". LHL is much closer---he was, from young, groomed by his dad. He's also a trained high ranking military OFFICER.

It is not just that Tharman won't be PM; Tharman SHOULD NEVER be PM.

The world needs more smart, nice people like Tharman. Let's not force him to be an asshole.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Why won't Tharman wants to be a PM?
Why won't a cat wants to eat fish?

7) In other words, if presented with creditable candidates and parties, the voters support level for opposition candidates hovers around 39%.

If there were better candidates, this GE there were many good candidates in the oppo camp compared to other GEs when oppo camp could easily get more than 40%, now they were hitting under 30%, this is not only pathetic but very serious. It is like the voters have deserted the oppo camp and only the few very hard core oppo supporters were left in the camp.

Anonymous said...

11) For some of those candidates and parties who are not moles, there are a number of them who can still contribute to sinkies alternative voices given their personal attributes and electoral experiences subjected to their acceptance of a coalscence of their resources and members behind the two main opposition parties. Otherwise they can still stay put as mickey mouse parties and contest until they capitulate eventually .......

12) If the opposition fraternity is serious about being a ( viable and credible ) alternative voice in sinkieland, they need to do some things much more than in the past. Otherwise, many sinkies would likely see them as moles or opportunists or just individuals with born rebellious streak in them ....... Then sinkies and sinkieland, as reflected in GE 2015 results, would ( rather ) live with the only ( lesser devil and ) evil they have known since day one from 9 August 1965 ( in perpetuity ).

13) If that is the case, sinkies may have to wear "political N95" masks in perpetuity to combat the possible ever rising "political pollution and political haze index as well as capitalist cronism pollution index" as long as they stay put in sinkieland.......

Anonymous said...

....now they were hitting under 30%, this is not only pathetic but very serious."
RB 10:47 a.m.

What so serious if parties like Sing First, NSP, PPP, RP and even SPP does not even exist in the first place? In fact, it is better for the opposition cause if they don't exist.

As for WP, swing voters simply and seriously just don't like another AHPETC happen again at East Coast, Marine Parade, Nee Soon and Jalan Besar Town Council! And what benefit is there if the AHPETC thing happen to their Town Council?

I would say it is only serious because there is no political safety net for Sinkies, should PAP failed, or rather failed badly. And not only are we not starting to build one, we are regressing where political safety net is concerned.

Anonymous said...

It is NOT an "or" situation but rather an "AND" situation.

The sinkies electorate are probably saying they will only strongly support those candidates who are credible AND from credible parties.

The incumbents' candidates have their party's brand name and machinery start with.

Anonymous said...

Do yew think the newbies candidates in Nee Soon GRC under the WP Team is "VERY STRONG"?

Honestly in many sinkies voters' hearts and minds, would they seriously think these few fellas are "BETTER" than Shamugam, not mentioning the party, machinery and resources standing behind him?

More "credible" candidates like Benjamin Pwee and JAC polled 20+% which is still substantially lower than the WP's Nee Soon GRC team who polled 30+%. Voters seemed to place higher weightings on party's credibility than candidates' credibility. But in the end, they want both but that may NOT be all it takes to win. To think so might be analysing the situation too simplistically and from a very narrow perspective.

Anonymous said...

"Credible" candidates have no place in the eyes of majority voters, if their party is "not credible", or worse, like "frogs", jumping from one "not credible" party to another.

Anonymous said...

Parties like Sing First, NSP, PPP, RP and even SPP better "za see za ho". Early die early better. For the opposition lah, of course.

Anonymous said...

//I would say it is only serious because there is no political safety net for Sinkies, should PAP failed, or rather failed badly. And not only are we not starting to build one, we are regressing where political safety net is concerned.//


Talking abt safety net, botak had previously countered with trampoline.

That is what sinkies need, or so botak said .....

Political safety net?

Anonymous said...

How abt "Political Trampoline" as suggested by botak to substitute safety net in the case of sinkies falling through the cracks?

If PAP fails badly one day, sinkies will fall into a "Political Trampoline" .....

Fate will depend where each sinkie land up in, subjected to the impact and the trajectory a sinkie bounces off from the trampoline.

Anonymous said...

Sing First is a joke, putting a 67 year old as candidate.
Anon 10:37 a.m

Either a joke, or a mole. Or maybe both. Moles can be good jokers too.

Anonymous said...

Some may land in America, some in Europe, some in Arsetrailia, some in 牛鸡妊, some in 妈累社, some in 泰妊, some in 阴毒泥夕鸭, some in 菜拿 。。。。。

Thks to botak "trampoline theory"!

"PM material" theory some more ......

Anonymous said...


Commonsense will tell that that opposition parties were never in
contention to compete for political power in Sg.

Go to the one room and so called one and half room rental flat siinkies and ask them who they voted. The result cud be 90% voted for PAP.
Ask the PG, Civil Servants and Grassroot Members, answer will be the same.
Ask the hawkers, cabbies and shop owners, also same same.
Where is the fight?
Answer, amongst the oppositions themselves.
In Cyberspace, between the handful of bloggers versus the main media.
Got fight?

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:13am, totally agreed with you. Retro rules the day. We have regressed, from first world back to third. And we have voted to put all our eggs in 1 basket, without any plan b at all.

Anonymous said...

Agreed with uncle RB, Tharman will never become the next PM. Not at least this term.

Nonetheless, he's a bright chap (I totally cringe at his pathetic attempts to act dumb), and definitely one of the less offensive ones from this batch. A scaredy cat, but has potential. At least I don't fall asleep hearing him talk.