9/10/2015

GE2015 Results – A hopeful assessment

On the morning of 12 Sep PAP is likely to be returned to power but with a smaller majority. On a fairly hopeful estimate, PAP should still end up with 63 seats with 26 seats going to the opposition. Among the likely GRCs to go will be Aljunied, East Coast, Marine Parade, Tanjong Pagar and Holland Bukit Timah. For the SMC, Huogang and Punggol East will stay with the WP plus Fengshan, MacPherson, Mountbatten and Potong Pasir joining the opposition camp.

There are a few borderline GRCs that could go either way. Ang Mo Kio, Tampines, West Coast and Chua Chu Kang have a slim outsider chance to go the other way if there is a strong swing in favour of the opposition. So too were a few SMCs like Bukit Panjang, Sengkang West and Yuhua.  Assuming luck is on the opposition side and half of these were to go, that would add another 11 seats to the 26 to make 37, still far short of the 50% mark.

Short of a miracle or ground swell, PAP will still be returned to Parliament with a comfortable majority though a bit painful for losing quite a number of ministers along the way. The people can look forward for more good years with the PAP charting the course towards SG100 and 10m population with more foreign talents. It would still be a good fight for the opposition for proving that going forward the PAP can only become weaker and weaker and the 2020 GE is likely to see a real change when more able people would come forward to join the opposition camp encouraged by what they see in this GE.

It is not so easy to remove a party that has been entrenched in power for 50 years unless there is a miracle, like a tsunami. This can only happen when the people lost trust in the PAP.  Would this happen in this GE? If it does, the final result would be totally different and a new govt will be installed.

11 comments:

Virgo 49 said...

Mr RB, make it 37 seats

100 dollars richer.

Also, PAP would not stuff all lap sap into our throats.

Cheers

Anonymous said...

Among the likely GRCs to go will be Aljunied, East Coast, Marine Parade, Tanjong Pagar and Holland Bukit Timah. For the SMC, Huogang and Punggol East will stay with the WP plus Fengshan, MacPherson, Mountbatten and Potong Pasir joining the opposition camp.
RB

This scenario will only most likely happen if the opposition, even with the current slate of candidates, had contested 100% seats as one party, maybe all under the WP.

But since they did not, 60% will have no choice but to make them lose big big again, just like in 2011. Of course the 60% also do not want a all PAP Parliament, so they will probably give face to opposition veteran WP Teochew Ah Hia to retain Aljunied, Hougang and maybe also Punggol East lah.

So please be ready for the final results in the early hours of 12 Sep hor.

patriot said...

If the PAP stays in power in the 2015 General Election, it shall stay to rule
up to SG100.

THERE SHALL BE NO WAY FOR ALTERNATIVE PARTIES TO VIE FOR POWER AFTER 2015.

patriot

Anonymous said...

There is a real fear by majority voters (aka 60%) that PAP may also be accidentally voted out if, besides those in Aljunied, Hougang, Punggol EAst and perhaps also Potong Pasir, they also vote opposition to win in East Coast, Marine Parade, Tanjong Pagar, MacPherson and Mountbatten.

This fear had happened in GE 2011, and even under a worse PAP than now, simply because the opposition is not ready to take over as govt if PAP is voted out.

Ask yourself. What makes you think this fear has disappeared in GE 2015, when the opposition is even more disunited than in 2011, let alone ready to be govt?

Virgo 49 said...

Aiyo, Singaporeans cannot vote other parties besides WP???

Why you so tang chun???

Diverse parties means more diverse views.

Thirty. Seven heads better than seven!!

GOT IT???

Anonymous said...


GE2015 CONGRATULATIONS............

All parties had done their BEST!

I salute all candidates! They were fantastic during the rallies.

So far so good! The campaigns were rather "gentlemanly" conducted!

Congratulations........

But, many people will be very very very surprised and vey very very
shocked by the results of GE2015.

Yes! Many people will be very very very disappointed with GE2015 results.

Sad not! Sad not! Whatever the results, please remember this...........

留得青山在 不怕没柴烧! YES, 留得青山在 不怕没柴烧

Say hello to 12 Sept 2015, a fresh new day for Singaporeans!

Cheers.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

@ RB:

>> Short of a miracle or ground swell, PAP will still be returned to Parliament with a comfortable majority though a bit painful for losing quite a number of ministers along the way <<

Hahaha, ya they will feign "pain". Actually it's already been calculated. Singapore will move to a multi party system SLOWLY according to Lee Kuan Yew's social engineering plans.

However, the Sheeple must be led to believe that they are in "control".

Happy delusions, folks! Happy happy!

Anonymous said...

You are way too optimistic lah.
mP will stay because those conservatives Confucius types will not let an elder statemen like GCT down one.
tP also the same lah, Stockholm syndrome too strong, will take another election before residents can soften.
+ 1 GRC + 2-3 SMCS

Anonymous said...

Civil Servants run the country.

Politicians are just toppings on the cake.
In Spore, toppings importance are grossly exaggerated.

Anonymous said...

"I think you have to look at the Punggol East results in perspective. People in Punggol East had no worries about accidentally throwing out the government," he pointed out.
Low Thia Khiang speaking after WP won the Punggol East by election in Jan 2013.

But in a general election, will the people worry about accidentally throwing out the govt?

Low Thia Khiang, in order to win more votes for WP, did not dare to address this question during his GE 2015 campaign.

Anonymous said...

Rb, you felt that pap unlikely booted out unless miracle happens like tsunami.
Well get this . Once in 50 years. Exactly. Pap can be ousted!