9/13/2015

GE2015 – The Mathematician won

A mathematician is more powerful than a magician. David Copperfield could create illusions but these are temporary effects of deception, not permanent. The number game of the mathematicians is real if they are playing with real numbers. This GE is won by the mathematicians doing just that.

There were some numbers being thrown around on the impact of new citizens. I received a figure of 280,000 new citizens. If I can recall correctly, it was reported that the number of voters increased from 2.1m to 2.4m, this is close enough to the 280,000 new citizens plus some locals. The percentage increased of new citizens in the electorate is thus 15% approximate.

To simplify the computation for the GE where there is a 10% swing towards the PAP or a 10% loss from the opposition camp, let me use the 60:40 formula to show how the results finally added up. In a constituency of 100,000 voters, assuming the percentage of votes was 60% and 40% in 2011, if the voters still voted for the respective parties, the result would now be 65% and 35%, that is if all the new citizens voted on the side of the 60%. It the new citizens voted for the 40%, the result would be 52% and 48%.

From the above, if the PAP got 60% in the last election, it should be getting 65% and a 40% vote for the opposition then would become 35%. On the reverse, if the WP got 60% then, its votes would now be 52% and the PAP should be 48%. Aljunied fits like a glove.

If I used a 20% increase of new citizens instead of 15%, the numbers would be 67%/33% and 50%/50% respectively. By applying this 15% increase of new citizen votes to every constituency, other that a few results with bigger swings due to factors like PGP, subsidies, etc, it is almost as perfect as you can get. The mathematician got it all worked out. A 15% increase in new citizens will win this election.

The voting pattern of the voters did not change much.  They did not turn against the opposition parties. They voted almost like the last GE but the result is totally different from the additional votes due to the new citizens. See how important the number of new citizens played in this GE?


Yes, the Mathematician won.


PS. Please don’t blame the Singaporeans for chasing after meats thrown at them. They did not. Using the same 60:40 formula, the 30% hard core pro opposition percentage would fall to 26% with a 15% increase in new citizens. And no, the theory that the voters voted for the PAP for fear of kicking them out is rubbish. The voters still supported their respective parties. It is the new citizen factor that changed the result of this GE. And you can expect more new citizens to be added to keep them voting for the PAP in future election.

The big question, how to stop the inflow of new citizens at such huge numbers not to change the pattern and result of future GEs.

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

I just hope that gat will be increased to 10% shortly to help the poor then 12 and 15% thereafter to reward the poor.

Anonymous said...

Gst not gat

Anonymous said...

Tiok.

Because of new citizens, plus a little bit of AHPETC issues, Teochew Ah Hia was almost voted out in Aljunied, and lesser mortal WP Lee Li Lian, as expected, lost to PAP's greater mortal Charles Chong (he was the one who coined the term "lesser mortals" meaning the peasants, not the PAP aristocrats, some time ago).

Anonymous said...

In the greatest battle for the war of the Ring fought at Gondor, the dark side was winning. Men fought hard, but were out numbered. A defeat was imminent and inevitable.

What turned the situation around was Aragorn arriving last minute with the Army of the Dead which lend the numbers and strength to eventually defeat the dark side.

In GE2015, we saw, for the first time, the secret army of new citizens voting for the first time as Singaporeans. The result is a resounding victory for the ruling party.

The difference between the Lord of the Ring and GE2015 is that the Army of the Dead did not stay after the victory. But the Army of new citizens is here to stay, and they are taking up space, jobs, houses etc. In time to come, they will demand to have their voices heard as well.

The dilution of the Singapore core is unstoppable. Everyone, please find your own way to break your fall.

Anonymous said...

http://www.tremeritus.com/2015/09/13/sylvia-voters-fear-pap-govt-might-be-dislodged/

Hahahahaha.

Not only Teochew Ah Hia, now even Sylvia also publicly said voters fear they might accidentally vote PAP out in a GE.

So like that how?

Anonymous said...

I think you. Issued out the big chunk almost 8% of the spoilt or rejected or unattending votes?
Why so high?
Did these people unable to vote because of the late notice of the GE date and people have already planned for trips/ holidays?
Then we must demand the electoral board to announce election day early!!! Nobody can react to a 2 weeks notice in this day and age and expect their travel plans to shift at short notice!! This is blatantly unfair and what is the point then for compulsory voting?

I really think is the combination of new voters and spoilt/rejected voters that Oppo must seize and give education and attention to next round.

Anonymous said...

To let their voices be heard in Singapore, the Army of new citizens amongst us is not going to form opposition parties. (Opposition parties are formed by true sons and daughters of Singapore, offering themselves to serve.) They are smart. They know the easiest way is for them to join pap, the party that welcomes everyone, like the guy who conned the old lady her millions. As party members, they will receive benefits and slowly increase their numbers. A time will come that they will have sufficient clout to push their agenda.

And there will be no opposition to stop them. Remember people, this is exactly what we have voted for.

Anonymous said...

It is less hurtful to attribute the result in GE2015 to new citizens and spoilt/rejected voters. To me, the most distressing reason for the defeat is betrayal by the true singaporeans. Singaporeans who are negatively affected by the pap policies and yet continued to vote for pap. I don't think that they worry so much about voting the pap out (if only they are capable of thinking of the big picture, it would be a good thing) but rather voting because they don't want to rock the boat. The voted for the familiarity, and the voted for status-quo. Even in the face of more and more stress, they voted for same-same.

Majority of Singaporeans are risk-averse. They are suspicious of anyone offering them freedom, and regard them as crazy con-men.

Opposition party candidates, I have this to say to you.
PLEASE DO NOT WASTE YOUR LIFE ANYMORE. Only when people want to be saved can you offer them hope. Our people do not want to be saved. So long as they decide who to vote for, they will NEVER vote for you. You are talented, and can easily find a good job and raise your family. LEAVE the Singaporeans to their own devices. They are a race doomed to extinction and it is a destiny that they ACTIVELY choose. You cannot help them. They have rejected you unequivocally. Not just this GE, the next and the next. Like me, you only live once. Please treasure your life and time. You have done your best. I will remember your courage and your battle well fought. You owe nothing to this country any more. We do not deserve your sacrifice.

Anonymous said...

Like dr Chee, he and his wife both have PhD and can get a well paid jobs overseas. Why live in a three rooms hdb flat and think twice before buying ice cream for their kids. The kids deserve better. Please migrate overseas and Iive a better life. Sinkies do not deserve your sacrifice so don't waste your time here.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

Please lah, I've already (and many others too) busted the "new citizens" theory.

But just let's say the numbers of 'new citizens" actually had some effect. My question then is:

How come the "alternatives" COMPLETELY MISSED the opportunity to court the "new citizens"!?!
Motherfuckers, please tell me you are not that dumb lah...because if you are you have no right to govern...😂

Flawed premise (unsurprising coming from persons like Redbean): The flawed premise here is that ALL the new citizens are AUTOMATICALLY LOYAL to the PAP. 💣🔫
Motherfuckers, please tell me you are not that dumb lah...because if you are you have no right to govern...😂

If you lose, just be graceful about it lah. One week ago you cocksuckers were blowing trumpets so loud you'd think by tomorrow PAP members would be lining up in Raffles Place publicly committing senpaku. (a feat I'd pay money to see) 💀

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

@ redbean:

Another (unsurprising) false premise:

>> To simply the computation for the GE where there is a 10% swing towards the PAP <<

There is proof (hard, INDEPENDENTLY verified evidence) for a swing. Yes, there are SOME swing voters.

However after the huge outpouring of emotions during the death of Lee Kuan Yew, then the incessant media coverage of his "legacy", followed by a huge rah rah SG50 celebration(still going on: I bought cheap SIA airfares SG50 "specials"), The Silent most of the Sheeple were already psychologically primed and already "made up their minds", but were TOTALLY UNAWARE that they had.

All of us like to believe that we are IN CONTROL of our decisions and choices. The fact is we are NOT. We are heavily and UNCONSCIOUSLY INFLUENCED by "signals" in the environment.

Your brain is constantly scanning the environment for "threats" to your continued existence. This is the very basic survival tool---DETECTION, and then IDENTIFICATION. And this is the mechanism which is the most easily hacked by marketers, con artists, stage magicians and anyone who wants to "influence" your choices.

The PAP are masters at this. I've always said so.

BTW, Lee Hsien Loong is a highly trained mathematician. So on one point I will agree with redbean, numbers do count. But it is how they are used which matters.

Anonymous said...

Dear Redbean, I agree with your article. Thank you. Didn't know your math is so powerful.

Do not let the I.B. persuade you otherwise. All new citizens are approved by the PAP. I cannot imagine any opposition party members having any influence in obtaining an approval for new citizen. So if PAP has the power to grant approval to new citizens, doesn't it follow that they will choose people who would vote for them? Isn't it natural for foreigners to infiltrate into PAP grassroot organisation in order to get citizenship? Isn't it natural for these new citizens to remain in those positions in order to leach all the benefits there? Don't waste your time wondering if any new citizen might vote for opposition. Don't waste your time asking oppositions to lobby new citizens.

So, ladies and gentlemen, there is no rolling of the dice here, instead there is a natural selection process that new citizens will be selected based on them voting for PAP, that new citizens will remain working for PAP, that ultimately new citizens will get all their kinfolk to come over and displace us.

This mechanism is working because traitors are holding power and bringing in the foreigners for their own personal gains, never mind that it destroys Singapore. Good Luck, my fellow Singaporeans.

Anonymous said...

About 15000-20000 new citizenships are granted a year. From 2011 till now? Maybe 100000? So honestly, I don't know where RB plucks out his 280000 from.

Also, of that number, not even all will be at the voting age of 21.

If there were a number to take note of, it would be that this elections consisted mostly of voters of a young age, ie. those born from 1990 onwards. This is the social media generation, expected to be more questioning, less satisfied, and vote against the PAP more. Even this did not happen.

And if the 10% are new citizens, and all voted PAP, even Aljunied and Hougang will be lost by now! This kind of simple reasoning also cannot see through it?

Nothing new. RB will make whatever theory he wants that makes him and his fellow ranters happy. After a whole year of telling us that PM suing Roy is going to cause a swing against the PAP, he just cannot accept the fact that PM still scored a 78% against Roy and Ravi in AMK GRC.

After a whole year of telling us that pioneers are angry, young people are angry, PMETs are angry, this is the result.

You buggers not interested in analyzing why despite the swing, some opposition, like LTK, still do better than others. That would be the way forward. But you buggers just interested to continue here talk your own nonsense.

So, you come up with this "new citizen" theory to explain. This is something that no opposition party even dare to claim, but RB apparently knows better.

Lol. Some things never change.

I agree totally with Matilah. A week ago, all talking big. Now, coming up with nonsense reason rather than trying to find out what is better.

I can already hear the PAP IB/dog comments coming my way. This is what you failures are only good at saying. Dumb 60%. Now there is a dumb 70%. Carry on the same useless comments for the next 5 years then.

This is why oppositions failed. Because of losers like you all. The rest of us who actually hope for some good oppositions to represent us in parliament have to put up with the other half of dumb noise makers like you people who keep destroying whatever good names opposition try to build. Especially fellows like RB who keeps championing gone case people like Roy and HHH!

Still don't see the truth? Even when its staring at you in the case?

Anonymous said...

The number 1, key factor of PAP getting more percentage of votes is actually the accumulated impact of new citizens.
This is a trend factor. The States media editors maybe blur or dishonest not to mention it.

PAP through more new citizens can ensure almost permanent rule.
This maybe an intentional scheme.
Demographics and new citizen voter patterns are firm and difficult to change.

Assumptions (estimates within limitations):
1. Yearly an estimated net 15,000 Singaporean born voters, from about 33,000 coming of age at 21 years old less about 18,000 of Singaporeans who died.
2. Yearly since 2000 there is an addition of 18,000 new citizens.
3. At start Year 2000, total of 100,000 accumulated new citizens from all previous years added.

The figures:
Year Locals Voters New citizens Accumulated Total voters New citizen %
2000 2,000,000 18,000 118,000 2,118,000 5.85%
2001 2,015,000 18,000 136,000 2,151,000 6.33%
2002 2,030,000 18,000 154,000 2,184,000 7.06%
2003 2,045,000 18,000 172,000 2,217,000 7.76%
2004 2,060,000 18,000 190,000 2,250,000 8.45%
2005 2,075,000 18,000 208,000 2,283,000 9.11%
2006 2,090,000 18,000 226,000 2,316,000 9.76%
2007 2,105,000 18,000 244,000 2,349,000 10.39%
2008 2,120,000 18,000 262,000 2,382,000 11.00%
2009 2,135,000 18,000 280,000 2,415,000 11.60%
2010 2,150,000 18,000 298,000 2,448,000 12.18%
2015 2,165,000 18,000 316,000 2,481,000 12.74%
2016 2,180,000 18,000 334,000 2,514,000 13.29%
2017 2,195,000 18,000 352,000 2,547,000 13.82%
2018 2,210,000 18,000 370,000 2,580,000 14.35%
2019 2,225,000 18,000 388,000 2,613,000 14.85%
2020 2,240,000 18,000 406,000 2,646,000 15.35%


Anonymous said...

Implications:
1. Almost all new voters are from 3rd world countries and will vote the PAP. India Indians view Singapore as the best Indian city in the world. While Chinese PRC loves Singapore. Those who are given citizenships received a huge upgrade from their 3rd world homes. They are naturally grateful to the PAP government. As the PAP government has made it clear, it values them sometimes even more than local Singaporeans.
2. By 2015, close to 13% of voting population are new citizen voters. In 2020 about 15.4% if current trend continues.
3. By 2015, swing against PAP from local born voters need to be 15% just to maintained status quo as per year 2000. What an almost sure win for PAP even if local Singaporeans are extremely unhappy with its policies.
4. Dissatisfaction among local born voters are increasing but their percentage and importance are decreasing. This trend will get clearer and stronger.
Local Singaporean voters voting power is steadily eroded by new citizen voters.
5. PAP can almost ensure permanent rule as new citizens vote overwhelmingly for them. This should be the case as the gap between the original home countries and Singapore is just too wide.

This 6.9mln and then 10mln population plan is intact.
Demographics and new citizen voter voting patterns are more or less fixed.

Conclusion: Indeed local born Singaporean voters have been gradually voting against the PAP but their voting swing has been more than offset by new citizen voters. Even with the reported so-called 9% swing from 2011 to 2015. As in 2011 only half of the seats were contested. In 2011 strong seats of PAP were not contested. Therefore the 60.1% vote for PAP was not representative of the whole of Singapore. If they were contested the percentage maybe more like 65%.
As such the net swing in reality in favor of the PAP is likely about 4% to 5% on a nationwide basis in 2015.
And this swing can almost all be attributed to the increase of new citizens, mathematically.

I hope the ruling PAP government will learn to be kind to its citizens especially the poor, needy, sick, aged and those who are not so competitive.
The PAP is going to rule Singapore for a long time based on my limited understanding. Take care Singaporeans. Look to God and not to men. Pray earnestly, trust and work wisely. Thanks to all who spoke up for the weak and voiceless.

Anonymous said...

Singaporeans will have to welcome more new citizens over the next 4 or 5 years. GE 2019/2020 will see the same result as the one we have just had. To all Singaporeans, if you cannot stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Period.

No use bitching about it.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

Before elections the number of new citizens not really an issue.

The issues were CPF, noncompetitive and lazy entitled PMETs, MRT breaking down...and associated "non issues".

Sekali lose election, now all that focus is GONE (shows you how really unimportant they were) so lets pull out the NEW CITIZENS to be the new "demons".

Target the new citizens. Assume that they all voted PAP. Because you are so smart you actually KNOW how people voted in their "secret" ballot. Oh what clever cunts you must be. ;-)

One thin is for sure: Your XENOPHOBIA has no bounds.

Any excuse to be a racist. Very good. Carry on ;-)

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

@ 413:

Actually the target for new citizens now is 25,000 per year. So your figure for 2020 is a bit low.

I think they should double it :-)) I want a more "international" polity, the more the merrier. Diversity of culture. Diversity of ideas, and lots more PUSSY from all around the world.

Open the fucking borders again. Grow that population!

Anonymous said...

To quote Anon 4:14pm, the increase in new citizens is 18000 yearly. This will change the total new citizen population from 12.18% in 2010 to 12.74% in 2015. A difference of how much? 0.56%.

How big was the swing to PAP? Almost 10% difference between 2011 to 2015. This means that beyond new citizens, the locals have swung towards the PAP in about 7-9% this time.

This is from one of your commentators who did the research and put up the figures.

Look at the numbers, and see if your simpleton mindset of 280K new citizens still makes sense or not.

Truly, a bunch of dumb fucks talking to make themselves happy.

Anonymous said...

Pls correct year 2015 onwards to 2011 for table above. thanks

Anonymous said...

sorry I made some mistakes in post. see below:

Implications:
1. Almost all new voters are from 3rd world countries and will vote the PAP. India Indians view Singapore as the best Indian city in the world. While Chinese PRC loves Singapore. Those who are given citizenships received a huge upgrade from their 3rd world homes. They are naturally grateful to the PAP government. As the PAP government has made it clear, it values them sometimes even more than local Singaporeans.
2. By 2015, close to 14.85% of voting population are new citizen voters. In 2020 near 20% if current trend continues.
3. By 2015, swing against PAP from local born voters need to be 15% just to maintained status quo as per year 2000. What an almost sure win for PAP even if local Singaporeans are extremely unhappy with its policies.
4. Dissatisfaction among local born voters are increasing but their percentage and importance are decreasing. This trend will get clearer and stronger.
Local Singaporean voters voting power is steadily eroded by new citizen voters.
5. PAP can almost ensure permanent rule as new citizens vote overwhelmingly for them. This should be the case as the gap between the original home countries and Singapore is just too wide.

This 6.9mln and then 10mln population plan is intact.
Demographics and new citizen voter voting patterns are more or less fixed.

Conclusion: Indeed local born Singaporean voters have been gradually voting against the PAP but their voting swing has been more than offset by new citizen voters. Even with the reported so-called 9% swing from 2011 to 2015. As in 2011 only half of the seats were contested. In 2011 strong seats of PAP were not contested. Therefore the 60.1% vote for PAP was not representative of the whole of Singapore. If they were contested the percentage maybe more like 65%.
As such the net swing in reality in favor of the PAP is likely about 4% to 5% on a nationwide basis in 2015.
And this swing can almost all be attributed to the increase of new citizens, mathematically.

I hope the ruling PAP government will truly be kind to its citizens especially the poor, needy, sick, aged and those who are not so competitive.
The PAP is going to rule Singapore for a long time based on my limited knowledge. Take care Singaporeans.

Anonymous said...

See amended years.
The number 1, key factor of PAP getting more percentage of votes is actually the accumulated impact of new citizens.
This is a firm trend factor. Though the States media editors maybe either so blur or dishonest not to mention it.

PAP through more new citizens can ensure almost permanent rule.
This maybe an intentional scheme.
Demographics and new citizen voter patterns are firm and almost fixed and difficult to change.

Assumptions (these are guess-estimates within limitations):
1. Every year there is an estimated additional net 15,000 Singaporean born voters, from about 33,000 coming of age at 21 years old less about 18,000 of Singaporeans who died.
2. Every year since Year 2000 there is an additional increase of about 18,000 new citizens.
3. At start Year 2000, there is a total of 100,000 accumulated new citizens from all previous years added.

Let’s examine the figures:
Year Locals New citizens Accumulated Total voters New citizen %
2000 2,000,000 18,000 118,000 2,118,000 5.85%
2001 2,015,000 18,000 136,000 2,151,000 6.33%
2002 2,030,000 18,000 154,000 2,184,000 7.06%
2003 2,045,000 18,000 172,000 2,217,000 7.76%
2004 2,060,000 18,000 190,000 2,250,000 8.45%
2005 2,075,000 18,000 208,000 2,283,000 9.11%
2006 2,090,000 18,000 226,000 2,316,000 9.76%
2007 2,105,000 18,000 244,000 2,349,000 10.39%
2008 2,120,000 18,000 262,000 2,382,000 11.00%
2009 2,135,000 18,000 280,000 2,415,000 11.60%
2010 2,150,000 18,000 298,000 2,448,000 12.18%
2011 2,165,000 18,000 316,000 2,481,000 12.74%
2012 2,180,000 18,000 334,000 2,514,000 13.29%
2013 2,195,000 18,000 352,000 2,547,000 13.82%
2014 2,210,000 18,000 370,000 2,580,000 14.35%
2015 2,225,000 18,000 388,000 2,613,000 14.85%
2016 2,240,000 18,000 406,000 2,646,000 15.35%

Anonymous said...

Target the new citizens. Assume that they all voted PAP. Because you are so smart you actually KNOW how people voted in their "secret" ballot. Oh what clever cunts you must be. ;-) by Mother cockle smeller

So you mother cocker smeller is the smartest and knows everything? Everyone will agree when you tell them the smell of your mother's cockle, and your daughter's as well. For serious talk, who would want to listen to a cocker smeller?

Anonymous said...

2015 new citizens, 14.85%
2011 new citizens, 12.74%.

Increase in new citizens, 2.11%

Increase in PAP support, 10%.

Dey, clear enough or not? Or still want to pluck out figures from the air and say got 280K new citizens?

Vision 20/20 said...

You are right!
Plus 200,000 overseas sons and daughters of Singaporean did not vote.

Anonymous said...

RB,
You have been working on an inaccurate set of statistics, and jumped to the wrong conclusion. The electoral register of voters increased from 2.350 million in 2011 to 2.463 million in 2015 - an increase of only 113,000. The number of new citizens from 2011 to 2015 should be around 80,000 (20,000 x 4) or 3.2%. No amount of smart maths will give you a conclusion that new citizens brought on the huge swing for the PAP. It is us daft Sinkies who caused the swing, probably nostalgia over LKY and SG50.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9pm....get your facts right, press release states 2011 voters is 2.06 million.
knn

Anonymous said...

Published sep 12, 2015 at 3.32 am
The election department released a total of 2,304,331 votes were cast not inculding votes from
overseas and 47,315 votes rejected.

Press release, election 2011, number of votes cast was 2,057,690 with 44, 714 votes rejected.

Anonymous SG said...

Stupid "frog-in-a-well". Redbean is 100% right! If U are "new citizens" in Australia Or USA, won't U & Your family be voting for PM Abbot & President Obama? Wake up mother fucker?

Anonymous SG said...

Redbean is spot on! If tomorrow we are "new citizens" in Australia, USA or Msia, surely our "votes-of-thanks" goes to Abbot, Obama & Najib right bro? Common sense & logical:) Our votes & Opposition effort got "screwed" by current "system, new citizens, Kelong & electoral fraud:(

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:43 pm. Learn how to read. 2.06 million in 2011 was the actual number of citizens who cast their votes and this did not include absentees and Tanjong Pagar which was not contested. Total voters in the register was 2.350 million.

Anonymous said...

Stupid anon 1.12 am, still not woken up yet??

Lets look at the presidency election in 2011, 2,153,014 votes cast, rejected 37,826.
There should be no freaking absentees nor ward not voting......right!!!!!
How much is the difference then....put your answer out.
Within the register, there can be bed ridden, mental, deaths etc etc, the actual figure would be the one cast.
Do you know how many was within the register this time? 2.5, 2.6, I doubt you can find that data anywhere soon.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

I have put a postscript in my lastest post as a qualification to my analysis in response to anon 9.00 pm's comment on the numbers that I used.

Until someone can come up with the actual figures, I still think that there is an ancrease of 300,000 new citizens/voters this time. Here is my PS.

PS. The above analyst is based on the assumption that there was an additional 300,000 new citizens/voters in this GE. Another blogger has pointed out that the number of electorate increased from 2.35m to 2.46m or an increase of 110,000. Which is the true number?



Let’s try to figure out which is which since we do not have the official data.



There were 200,000 Singaporeans outside Singapore and not allowed to vote this time. This is about 8% of the electorate. The turnout for this GE was about 94%. This implies that the 200,000 Singaporeans would have been taken out from the eligible voters or else the turnout would be less than 92% or near to 18% as the turnout of 2011 was 90%.



The eligible voters this time should be 2.35m less 200k or 2.15m instead. Thus there was still an increase of 2.46m less 2.15m or 310,000 voters. How this number came about, I dunno. My analysis is accurate only if there were 300,000 new citizen/voters. If the number varies somewhat, the findings would be proportional to the changes using the same parameter.



Would anyone be able to provide the real numbers?

Anonymous said...

RB,
The official Electoral Registry figures are 2.46m for 2015 and 2.35m for 2011, making a difference of 110,000 only. The Electoral Registry includes everyone, including those who are overseas. So, no need to add or deduct 200,000. To be more precise, new citizenship granted by year are as follows:

2007 - 17,334
2008 - 20,513
2009 - 19,928
2010 - 18,758
2011 - 15,777
2012 - 20,693
2013 - 20,572
2014 - }Govt indicates between
2015 - }20,000 and 25,000 will be granted

From above, you can see that new citizens over a 4 year period cannot exceed 80,000 or 90,000 (assuming that those below voting age are offset by earlier cohorts turning 21 years). Hope above helps in your review.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Thank you anon 9:16 for the figures. If you have the time, would be good to take a look at the total population growth for the same period. From you figures it said the growth of citizens was 100,000 every 5 years. How much have we grown?

With replacement rate of 1%, we cannot grow to 3.7m today at 20,000 annually.

Anonymous said...

RB,
Total yearly population figures (June each year in Millions) are as follows:

Year Citizens PR Residents (C+PR) Non-Residents Total
---- -------- -------- --------------- ------------- --------
2007 3.1338 0.4492 3.5831 1.0055 4.5886
2008 3.1644 0.4782 3.6427 1.1967 4.8394
2009 3.2007 0.5332 3.7339 1.2537 4.9876
2010 3.2307 0.5410 3.7717 1.1344 5.1661
2011 3.2572 0.5320 3.7893 1.3944 5.1837
2012 3.2851 0.5331 3.8182 1.4942 5.3124
2013 3.3135 0.5312 3.8448 1.5544 5.3992
2014 3.3430 0.5277 3.8707 1.5990 5.4697

Population does not include overseas citizens, with number ranging from 147,500 in 2007 increasing to 200,000 in 2012.

As can be seen, our citizen population is increasing by about 30,000 per year (slightly lower in previous years). This is contributed by natural citizen increment of about 10,000 and granting of new citizenships of about 20,000 each year. PR population is currently kept at about 530,000. Current resident fertility rate is 1.19.

Anonymous said...

How much would you believe in the official numbers?