7/31/2015

GE2015 – A hand with no aces


The past PMs used to hold a hand of aces and kings and queens during an election. And they could simply throw in an ace or a king in a weak constituency or when the opposition mounts a serious challenge. There was no problem when every minister was an ace, a king or queen. If one minister is not enough, throw in another one or get a heftier minister and the constituency was won. It was as simple as that. And PAP’ strategy was a strategy based on strength. And they went to battle to rout the opposition. There was no contest when a minister was thrown into a GRC.

Today, when Hsien Loong holds up his cards, he cannot imagine that the cards are so weak. No aces, maybe a few kings and queens, a number of 2s and 3s and the rest of the pack are the 6s and 7s. How to play with such a weak hand? How to go into an election with a hand of cards that spells losers?

I can imagine the strategy for this election would be drastically different from the past. It would be a defensive strategy on how to save and protect the weak ministers? Hsien Loong would have a hard time trying to place them to save them and keep them in his cabinet. The East is a sea of blue. Too dangerous.  The mentioning of Aljunied would send fear to potential PAP candidates. Where are the safe GRCs to hide the weak ministers and to prevent a GRC from being overran?

The end result would be considered good if lesser ministers were lost in battle. Notice the change, from a minister taking the fight to the enemy to a situation where ministers would have to be carefully placed to prevent losing them and losing the GRC?

Are there still gungho ministers daring to go to the East or to a GRC helmed by strong opposition candidates? Anyone up to it to volunteer to fight in Aljunied or in Marine Parade or in East Coast, or even in Tanjong Pagar?

How did the mighty PAP reach this point when every minister is no longer an ace and with so many no better than a 6 or 7, with some obviously 2s or 3s? Has the tea party gone wrong? Why is the tea party not turning up aces or kings and queens? What happens to all the good men and women? Why are they not appearing at the tea parties to be selected and to stand for the PAP? The few potential that have become the ‘knowns’ are a far cry from what the PAP used to have.  Is it that the good men and women are seeing things that they are not comfortable with, that they did not want to be associated with?

What is the real problem with the PAP? Or I am just having wild imagination, that Hsien Loong is holding a hand of aces and kings and queens and the GE would be just another walkover?

The only ace in the PAP game plan, and the only trump card it has and using furiously, is a man of the past.

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

The 2s and the 3s of PAP may be much better than the Aces of opposition.

Anonymous said...

"The only ace in the PAP game plan, and the only trump card it has and using furiously, is a man of the past."

Is this called crutch mentality?
Is this called living in the past?
Is this called a one-man action party?

Anonymous said...

"Today, when Hsien Loong holds up his cards, he cannot imagine that the cards are so weak. No aces, maybe a few kings and queens, a number of 2s and 3s and the rest of the pack are the 6s and 7s. How to play with such a weak hand?"

What? No jokers in the pack?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Anonymous said...
The 2s and the 3s of PAP may be much better than the Aces of opposition.
July 31, 2015 8:41 a.m.

You may be right. The problem is that even with aces like George Yeo could not hold the fort. And kings in Hougang and Punggol East were trounced by the weaker opposition candidates.

What was the message? What is the moral of the story?

Anonymous said...

anon 8.59 " What? No jokers in the pack? "

The whole cabinet are jokers.

Anonymous said...

That strategy of sending in the aces has already been shot down in Aljunied GRC. Three ministers were eliminated all at once. Now, I think they are more afraid of losing their aces should they send him/her to the wrong battleground.

Even those purported aces they send in to Hougang and Punggol East failed miserably, all ministerial potential. Now the two time loser in Hougang is getting a sure-win free ride into Parliament in Tampines. Sure or not I am not too sure.

Anonymous said...

Knowing them, they got a lot of aces up their sleeves lah. They already used up a few, like gerrymander and fixing the opposition. One ace is to disqualify the WP, their most feared opponent, over the AHPETC affair. Another is to delay the nomination until too late to register like Tanjong Pagar. Then they may have moles to split the votes. So many aces lah.

Anonymous said...


Is PAP Brand Too Big To Fail?

I think PAP is fighting GE2015 based on the strong
PAP brand.

Nevermind you don't know the candidates, PAP brand
is enough.

Just look around you.

Since GE2011, PAP is at all corners of the island
organising activities and celebratory events with
massive participations. There are also plentiful of
free gifts, goodies and free buffets.

With the present smiling economy and the SG50 feel-good
environment, the ground can be very very sweet.

Will the PAP MPs and their supporters smile and cheer in
their camps, when the election results are announced?

Is PAP brand too big to fail?

What say U?

We shall see.

Cheers.

Anonymous said...

@ AnonymousJuly 31, 2015 8:41 a.m.
The 2s and the 3s of PAP may be much better than the Aces of opposition.

True.

In such things, it is always relative.

The 6s and 7s or even 4s and 5s may be sufficient when you have uncles who looked like they have seen much better years turning up in soccer gear when it appeared they were in various other sports as a team .......

Next, when u have a 40+ year old who have as much white hairs as 老羊 but "adamant" he "can run the century sprint in 20 sec" ( world record is 9.58 sec ) and bring the people from the "wilderness to the promise land ", you are bound to have history repeated with "meagre" change as witnessed in the past .......

Obviously having 6s and 7s is not a very strong hand and for that matter 4s and 5s but it is enough when your opponents have 2s and 3s like some old uncles team in disarray and/ or 40+ year-old looking older and weaker and more white hair than Mr (Red) Bean (69 yo) or "patraitor" ( 65 yo ).

The past results speak for themselves.

What makes this time different?

What has changed in the opposite camp?

Oh yes, more ( new and some gate crashing ) parties to play party poopers ....?

Lol

Saved for some minor improvement over the past, based on observations and anecdotal "track records", nothing quantum, major or revolutionary has precipitated in the opposite camp. Instead of more unity, they may have gone the opposite direction .....

That’s the worst part of sinkieland right now.

On the one side, weaker and weaker hand. On the other side, more disarray and disrepute than the other way round for many if not most of them with some having replacement of SG ( secretary general ) like changing "soiled adult diapers" . .....

It is not just one side not attracting the right and good people. The other side is not doing much better.....

No?

What have the opposite side shown sinkies in the past 4+ years since GE 2011 to prove otherwise?

Even more 2s and 3s than any 9s or 10s, much less Kings, Queens and Aces ......

Maybe if " Mr Bean" throws his hat into the ring, he is the next Ace ...... hopefully

Anonymous said...

Agree with 9:11

Watch out for the moles , proxies if pap to split the votes.
Not forgetting, they still have secret squirrels.
And maybe leftover ballot boxes found after election...lol
Keep your eyes open lest you get carried away.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Actually Singaporeans should not be too concerned about kings and aces. What is important is whether there is a heart and whether the heart is in the right place.

The most important consideration is to take back your country. Singaporeans must stand up united, to keep Singapore for Singaporeans, not for fake Singaporeans and definitely not to give it away to the foreigners.

Our parents and forefathers worked so hard for this piece of rock. Do not let the fools take it away from you and give it to foreigners. Your parents and forefathers will turn in their graves.

Don't be silly. This is your country, the only piece of land you can call it yours. Take it back before it is too late!

Don't be a 败家子!

Anonymous said...

But if the people like to see PAP defeated, then let them lah. Let the aces of WP which may be the 4s or 5s of the PAP run Singapore and see how. We can try. Let these citizens know that if your life is bad under PAP, it could get worse if you choose the wrong govt. Or, miraculously, it could get better under WP. The sun shines after the rain.


Anonymous said...

Forget about PAP 2s and 3s being better than the opposition, just remember any opposition getting into Parliament means two more hands to slap. That is good enough.

Then, and maybe then, hopefully and God willing (to quote Najib Razak) those who have been looking forward to their lump sum CPF, like RB, may have their wishew fulfilled.

Anonymous said...

The underlying reason is more fundamental.
The PAP has grossly over-paid themselves in the name of public service.

This root problem becomes clearer and clearer as their incompetence compared to their compensation and justifications are revealed in their failings of planning and execution on a day to day basis experienced by the citizens whether from the adverse consequences of uncontrolled get FTs at all cause fast rate, the poor maintenance of trains over many years, greed-based HDB, hawker stalls, etc higher primary market prices by the sole monopoly of land.

PAP ministers and MPs cannot go in front of the citizens and truly said we have worked hard for YOU! or quietly show we have sacrificed for You. There is no power in their preaching. This is subtle but fundamental. True blue Singaporeans know that. True blue Singaporeans now realized their interests were/are compromised.

Self interests from one party are likely acceptable if the others self interests are not compromised.

Of course it would have been better if rulers are righteous. That's where the hearts and the deeds matched. But we have slipped away. It was subtle, it was gradual. But when we looked back it was HUGE.

Principles are truth and love will always remained the fundamentals of life.

Anonymous said...

Why worry that much about 4s and 5s of the opposition running Singapore? If the oldies and pioneers dared to vote for the PAP in the early years, some of whom were barbers and hawkers, thereby giving them a chance to prove themselves, why not?

It does not always follow that the elites or highly educated 1s and 2s can understand the problems of the downtrodden better than those on the ground. In fact some born elitists may well asked you to get out of their elite faces if they do not agree with your point of view, or complain about your peasant smell if you stand too close to them.

Anonymous said...

A 2s or a 3s can become an Ace if it is of love, sacrifice and truth. The PAP has themselves to blame, they keep forgoing it, instead turning Aces to 2s and 3s because of self interests and greed.

Anonymous said...

PAP will win big again like how they had won in previous elections. And for one and only reason - because the opposition is not ready to be govt.

Strongest opposition party leader Teochew Ah Hia already announced contesting only 28 seats. And this is real good news for PAP because PAP know for sure thy will get at least 2/3 majority even if Ah Hia party can win all the seats they contested.

And Ah Hia's party aside, the rest of opposition can forget about winning, as 60% will never vote for them for fear of accidentally also voting PAP out.

So worst case scenario for PAP is losing only 28 seats at most, and even this is also quite unlikely. Hence PAP will be return to power without any coalition govt with opposition, and continue with importing more foreigners to replace the Sinkies no enough to vote PAP out.

Anonymous said...

The thing I very much like WP is that they have no self interests and greed. Look at them, so humble. Although they won a GRC, they always keep a low profile and never really make any ruffles when new laws come under discussion. They will disagree, throw in a few lines and then keep quiet, like a kenna victim. What for fight so hard ? If I were them, I will also keep quiet and pocket my $16,000 come pay day.



Anonymous said...

The huge outpouring of grieve and appreciation to late Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, was also an outpouring to the first generation political leaders like Mr. Goh Keng Swee, Mr. Rajaratnam, and many others. It is an underlying memorial to the ideals of a group of pioneers who worked diligently, sacrificed for the nation sake at their own expense and families with little to no financial rewards.

It is a yearning in human hearts for righteous, selfless leadership.

PAP had blew it in the last 25 years since GCT, using extreme compensation for public service. This bad seed philosophy has grown and producing its fruits. It is getting uncontrollable, producing many Yes-men of self-interests under the disguise of public service of self-delusion.

Anonymous said...

Botak Benjamin of DPP may cause some 3 corner fights in some SMCs, and this may result in 35% votes win liao PAP MPs for these SMCs. If got 35% elected President, why not 35% elected MPs? And not just one but more too?

Anonymous said...

Hope DPP Botak Benjamin party candidates lose their deposits, like how Kenneth (son of JBJ) and the "no x factor" Desmond of SDA also lost.

I mean Botak want to field even a 75 year old "used material" to contest. Like that how not to lose deposit?

Anonymous said...

Anon 11.02 is correct. From producing leaders with national interest to producing leaders with self-interest. The system will degenerate because people with real national interest will disagree with some of the policies within the system, but because of that they will never figure in the process of nation building. You have to be with them or are deemed to be against them and demonised.

Empires and regimes fell because good people will stay away from bad practices.

The said...

/// GE2015 – A hand with no aces ///

You forgot there are four jokers.

Anonymous said...

We cannot always let the scholars and elites run the country. These scholars who may very well score all As and A stars in exams may not be good politicians. We must have Ministers who are just mediocre, so that they will not always think of the million dollar salary to pay themselves. They will forget that they are worth millions in opportunity costs. They also must have hearts of the heart landers, yet be very clever when dealing with other countries.

But when it comes to paying civil service, or the honchos of the GLCs, I say we must pay them well, and as well as in the private sector because these people runs the country on a day to day basis. So we need top talents. I say, don't be penny wise pound foolish. Pay them millions if need be.

A senior talented govt servant writing reports for a mediocre Minister for approval and evaluation, yes, that's the way it should be for a prosperous country.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Haha, my packs of Alladdin usually have 2 jokers. Where did the two additional jokers come from?

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

Redbean's analyses of the ongoing narrative up to the election is old-timey and charming.

Apparently he still believes that elections are won and lost due to "aces" held by the potentially winning side. How delightfully innocently ignorant!

Getting sales, votes, swaying opinion to your side, becoming popular....all these outcomes which require your "marks" to be influenced the way YOU want them to be, is the crux of MOTIVATING people toward your chosen "target". You must capture their attention, their focus and ultimately tap into their EMOTIONS---which is the way we all make our decisions to ACT.

You don't need to control their minds forever. All you have to do it tip their minds for one instant, to vote for you (in politics), or buy whatever it is you're selling (in business and life).

Unfortunate news for the non-incumbents and wannabe "oppositions"---the PAP are master's of the game of voter mind manipulation from their advantageous HIGH ground, where they also happen to have the LAWS on their side.

Anonymous said...

On paper many things said are technically and theoretically correct.

The problem is how to devise a system with (perverse) incentives taking into consideration human nature ( of sinkies) ....... A "tribe of sheeple" old man knew inside out, managed the way he did and won admiration and praises worldwide, whether they like him or not .....

Obviously the current batch may have the myriads of 锦囊 ( aka SOPs and Contingency Manuals) on sinkies ( human nature ) left behind by old man and also probably the known known, known unknown, unknown known, unknown unknown, black swan events etc to deal with .....

Would the alternatives not having full access of the (human nature) of sinkies discover to their "horror" when they come to power and what next ..... ( probably some know already especially Teochew Ah Hia, that's why he probably said what he did on the wee hours of the morning during the press conference after the Jan 2013 PE BE that they are not ready ( read "not so kong cum dun wan lah " ) to be the garment .....). This could be a hard truth old man knew like a 赌神 knows the card not unlike the back of his hand ......

Furthermore, not every generation especially the "strawbelly" generation have the immovable convictions to sacrifice like old man, his cohort and the PG ..... It is like strawberry vs walnut..... Which is tougher?

There are many observations ( technically correct ) made in the above comments but ( knowingly or unknowingly ) with many underlying ASSUMPTIONS.

Remove the ASSUMPTIONS and many things may not work in the dynamics of realities ( especially in Sinkieland ).

By all means, more alternative voices probably is good and a forgone conclusion.

But just dun think of only a, b, c ......

How abt x, y, z .......?

Aa, bb, cc .....?

Xx, yy, zz ....?

Aa1, bb1, cc1 .....? Etc etc .....

What is (are) the short, mid, long term ends in sight?

Obviously, TJS pre-GE 2011 47-page economic policies especially the part on manufacturing is at best conceptually flawed as witnessed by the success of Obama's post GFC/ 2009 economic policies of the re-industrialisation of the American economy ( especially the industrial sector).

Same applies to the German economy. On a smaller scale, do we even have the Germans Industrial 4.0 initiatives to spear head into the next level?

There are too many imponderables .......

The current batch and the previous ( 老羊cohort ) based on the past 25 years anecdotal evidences are more or less already "bankrupt" of workable ideas to take Sinkieland forward, in many dimensions be it economic, social, demography, national identity, surgically- precise supply side policies etc etc ......

On the other hand, nothing points to the fact that the non-incumbents are up to the task not withstanding the often repeated and parroted argument in social media that the PG leaders too did not have any prior experience when they came into power in 1959, and later when they merged Sinkieland with Malaysia in 1963 and then went independence in 1965.

Again this argument (ASSUMPTION) at best is not well thought out because they are not comparing apples to apples.

Let's say this argument is correct. Then who in the present non-incumbent camp is the LEE KUAN YEW, TOH CHIN CHYE, GOH KENG SWEE, E W BARKER, HON SUI SEN, S RAJARATNAM etc etc ......

In history, there are some figures in the mode of "前无古人,后无来者"?

Come, come .....

Who dare stand up and say they are comparable to LKY, GKS, TCC etc etc .....?

We clap for u ...... Pray tell .....

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

This MS shit thinks he is so clever. He knows the on goings and how to win an election oso. Oppo parties must recruit him to win election. Sure win with his expert advice. Kong cum advice anyone?

Anonymous said...

Ahem!

The said...

/// Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...
Haha, my packs of Alladdin usually have 2 jokers. Where did the two additional jokers come from? ///

Don't you know that your constituency has just been gerrymandered? The other 2 jokers are from the adjoining constituency's pack of cards.

Don't say I didn't warn you that the cards are stacked against you.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

I swear everything is transparent and above board. Where got card stacking? How to have pure hearts like that?

If the hearts are pure, I guarantee no cheating.

Anonymous said...

Actually if using decks of cards as analogy, some of the non-incumbents cards are already "water-marked" with ink invisible to the naked eyes but able to be seen by the incumbent.

Next, the incumbent are drawing from multiple decks whereas the non-incumbent hardly have a full set of cards with the big cards mostly missing .....

It is at least a 45 degrees tilted field with the non-incumbent nearer to gravity and thus needing much more efforts to play in the incumbent's half and beat them in a match up ......

Before it started, it could be already incumbent: 45 to non-incumbent: 0 .......

We are none the wiser but how else to rationalise an election in an "aristocratic republic democratic monarchy" UNIQUELY sinkieland. ......

Anonymous said...

Some peeple are just born great.

Anonymous said...

Like Puyi.

The said...

You mean Henry Puyi of the Manchu Aisin Gioro clan?

Anonymous said...

Yes, noble birth. Oh more than that, royal birth.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

@ 141:

Nonsense. One vagina is no more "nobler" or "royal" than another. A shoe is just a shoe. A toaster is just toaster. Therefore, a vagina is just a vagina.

patriot said...

Natural Aristocrat?

What's that?

Ingrish in Sin is damn powderful.

patriot