10/28/2013

War is imminent in East Asia

 Abe warned China that it would not tolerate the ‘use of force to change status quo’ in East Asia, a reference to the Diaoyutai dispute. And Japan has been acting aggressively by scrambling fighter jets to intercept Chinese aircraft in international airspace in the vicinity of the disputed islands. Such rattling of sabre has been what the Japanese were used to in the past, and the use of force to change the status quo, like invading all the countries in East and Southeast Asia were what the Japanese did during the Second World War.
 

Japan is still acting and behaving as if it is the undisputed military power of the region and China is still the Sick Man of Asia. In today’s context, China is in a better position to warn Japan and be the provocative one. Instead, Japan is still thinking that it is their right and think they could invade and run wild into China. Abe and his military hawks better have their heads check. Japan today is on its own, encircled by Russia, China and the two Koreas and Taiwan in the South. Any outbreak of hostility will see old scores being settled. Yes, Japan can count on the Americans, and there will be a big military battle at sea if the combatants can limit the scale of the war and the theatre of action.
 

Today, the cities in both China and Japan are so densely populated that bombings could be so destructive beyond the imagination of anyone. The scale of destruction and death in one day could be more than the whole of World War Two. But the Japanese would not want to think so and continuously provocating China for a showdown.
 

China has replied to Abe’s threat that any act against Chinese aircraft or ships will be an act of war. This is the first time the word ‘war’ is being used in response to Abe’s threat and warning of military action. By making such harsh statements, Abe is forcing the Chinese to take even stronger stand to face up to him.
 

War is imminent and a very violent and bloody one when it starts. There is no way the two countries can limit the scale of war and the participation of other countries, notably the Americans on the side of the Japanese, and Russia, the two Koreas and Taiwan on the side of China. Historical debt will be settled and the Ryukyu island chain will likely be reverted to Chinese rule, and the Koreans will make sure their islands will remain with Korea. Russians may be tempted to expand their grasp from 4 islands to a few more in the North Sea.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Some Chinese scholars had studied and written that most huge empires, even the greatest, historically have no more than a life span of 250 to 300 years. Uncle Sam is now in their 238th year since Independence. Coincidentally, when Adam Smith, often regarded as founding father of modern economics and the capitalism ideology, published arguably his greatest book --- An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, it was in 1776.

Preceding modern Capitalism was Mercantilism, which spanned for about 250 years. Juxtaposing both and you may get a discomforting picture. It may not be that of a coincidence that China is economically organised along some form of capitalist mode but politically structured in communist modus operandi. Sooner or later, these two ideologies have to converge and fuse. Just like the fusion of food, what would be the synergised offshoot or by product of such a fusion of two opposite polarity ideologies but also operating in two different planes/ facets of the Chinese society?


Could it be that politically, an authoritative system predominantly is the answer or way forward to build and sustain a strong, vibrant capitalist economy? Can a society or any society be organised along this mode? Are there any example? Are we living in one? In many ways, it is even obvious to the layman that China would challenge Uncle Sam in many aspects, not just politically or militarily. China may soon be chipping away even more of the green back sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere and not just in the Asian trading bloc.

Obviously, the recent Asian military pivot by Uncle Sam may have implications far beyond military and geo-politics. In the end, it depends on who is on the right side of history. Superstitious beings may say whose side is destiny on? Some may not think so for obvious reasons but yet others would believe destiny playing a big part on how well some people in this world are living with huge influence and power to boot. At times, some of the smartest guys on earth are poorer than even toilet cleaners. Obviously, it may be not forever when their luck turn and when they want or decide to make it somehow.

China is a classic example. People only see how powerful it can be or is or will be but just 100 years ago, this was probably unimaginable. That is why you and I and many others ended up Singaporean Chinese and not PRC Chinese because our great grand parents and grand parents have to escape from some certain starvation and disappearance from the face of this earth had they not sailed south to this "Southern Ocean or 南洋 as they termed it" to continue their journeys on earth. If our forebears had landed in Thailand, we could have become SiamKias ( another S E Asian Chinese term for Thais ).

Destiny may have played a part for GWB to screw up in Middle East against counsel of people like his former Secretary of State Colin Powell. That probably by destiny enabled President Obama to get elected after the 2008 Lehman Bros debacle and the following crisis. So, history may be on China side. But on the other hand, there are severe underlying currents, deep seated social conflicts and enormous economic imbalances in PRC. I certainly hope the 5th generation Chinese leadership under Xi and Li with other pivotal figures like Wang Qi Shan would be able to be on top of situations and developments domestically, geo-politically and globally.

There may be fireworks, big fireworks next year, geo-politically. 2014 is the 120th anniversary of the First Sino Japanese War. In China, it is known as "甲午战争" ( Jia Wu War ) . 1894 was a 甲午 ( Jia Wu ) year in Chinese almanac. Next year is likewise. Year of the Wooden horse, typically full of gun powder make up. It may not be the type of gun powder back in 1894 but of modern warfare.

It may not be wise to go swimming or fishing in South or East China Sea in 2014.

Anonymous said...

Even if got war, Sinkieland will still be peaceful what, tio bo?

PAP will still be PAP, WP will still be WP and Sinkies remain as Sinkies as whatever they are, tio bo?

So what is the change in Sinkieland even if there is war between China and Japan, you tell me lah?



Anonymous said...

Will more PRCs, especially those very rich ones, try to escape from China to Sinkieland if there is war with Japan?

And how will this affect Sinkie property prices and ordinary Sinkies?

Ⓜatilah $ingapura⚠️ said...

Just a bit of sabre rattling lah.

Both testing each other, as well as gauging regional and global reaction.

Typical brinksmanship. Each side comparing their cock size to the other.

Next stage: finger pointing and blame-game. Plus comments and interruptions from the "audience" -- other cuntrees, especially ASEAN fuckers.

Anonymous said...

Tat day I eaten a dish at fuji resturant in bangkok called "kane nabe" , taste not bad they got a lot other "nabe" dishes also ....

Before war, if any , lets eat drink dance til drop mann ....
Tis conflict sg not involve la dont worry ....
Singapore huat ah .....

Anonymous said...

As Japan is the only country in Asia to counter balance the rise of the Chinese, Japan deserves our support...Cheers!

Anonymous said...

Were any of your grandparents or relatives or friends killed, head chopped off, raped, beaten, water pumped into their stomach, had babies bayonetted, or slapped by the Japanese during WW2?

If not, ok go ahead and support Japan.

b said...

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong" - Murphy Law

- in other words, any shit that can happen, will happen. It is just a matter of time. USA is now being accused of war crimes using drones. Will this escalate into a massive disaster? Only time can tell.

Anonymous said...

You must be joking. The Japanese got whacked by the Americans. The Americans whacked the North Koreans. And the poorly equipped PLA kicked the asses of the Americans and routed their famed Marines.

The PLA has been undefeated since they came to power after WW2. Ask the Americans in Korea, the Indians at the Sino Indian borders, and the Vietnamese in Vietnam.

Anonymous said...

The japs are just up building up the pace to change its constitution.

Virgo 49 said...

Right bro, the PLA resolve in defencing their motherland is number one in the world.

See their actions even in peacetime tackling the major disasters in the country.

Shown them the atrocities committed by the Japanese to them and they would even killed them with their bare hands.

Anonymous said...

we had seen the anti -japanese sentiments when the islands were privatised by the Jepun-kias.

should the China suffer its first casualty in a naval conflict, the political mouthpiece sure amplify and spike nationalism against the ...





Anonymous said...

Rb: /// War is imminent and a very violent and bloody one when it starts ///

So?

Anonymous said...

@October 28, 2013 8:58 pm

.... wanna like my dog???

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

A friendly advice to the Japanese. Today China is no longer the Sick Man of Asia. For every soldier or military equipment the Japanese have, the Chinese have 100 pces more.

If China does not provoke Japan it is better that the Japanese develop a good working relation with China and live in peace. If anyone is to make warning remarks, it is now China's turn. But China is not doing so and this should be not seen as a weakness. Unfortunately Abe and his mad friends think so and think they could go to war with China.

Think very carefully. This time it would not be Japanese soldiers running wild in Chinese soil but Chinese and Korean soldiers running wild in Japan.

Anonymous said...

the jepun langs will look for support from india ?


news east asia forum--

The second India-Japan naval exercise, scheduled to be held before the end of the year, is expected to be much bigger than the first one held in June 2012. The first bilateral maritime affairs dialogue was held in New Delhi on 29 July 2013. As Tokyo attaches great importance to security cooperation with India it has decided to add two more attaches to its embassy in New Delhi. With Abe scheduled to make his visit to India for the next annual summit soon after the Emperor’s visit, the prospect of a major breakthrough in bilateral defence cooperation is quite bright'

Japan is sending the Emperor to India !

Anonymous said...

wiki-

India and Japan also have close military ties. They have shared interests in maintaining the security of sea-lanes in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean, and in co-operation for fighting international crime, terrorism, piracy and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The two nations have frequently held joint military exercises and co-operate on technology.[12] India and Japan concluded a security pact on 22 October 2008.

Anonymous said...

Japan is ' not a oil-saving lamp'

isn't it for everybody to see that they are trying to wrestle Myanmmar to their side ?