Why no population forecast beyond 6.5m?
A forumer, Ng Ya Ken, wrote to Today asking why there is population projection beyond the 6.5m mark. He quoted Hongkong projecting a population of 8.89m in 2039 from its present 7m. Let me venture a few guesses. One, the 6.5m is our target and we will not go further than that. So there is no need to talk about anything more than that. Two, our planners forgot to plan further, or they are still planning and have yet to come out with a new figure. Or any number bigger than this will scare the daylight out of the people? Should we stop at 6.5m or can we go beyond 6.5m? Stopping at 6.5m is a disaster as our economic growth depends on population growth. Without population growth there will be no economic growth as our productivity growth is negligible. The special jab from the two IRs will also be over by then. We will go into a steep recession once our population stops growing. On a more realistic thought, I think our planners are not sleeping and 6.5m is not the target. Just project on a continuous growth of 5% per annum and that would likely be the way to go forward. This could simply increase the population by 50% in 10 years or thereabout. Isn’t it frightening? Maybe it is so frightening that no one wants to talk about it. Would anyone want to tell us what will be the future? A population projection is the easiest thing to do unlike projecting demands for housing, and the numbers must be there. No? Please tell us, please.