1/03/2011

Why no population forecast beyond 6.5m?

A forumer, Ng Ya Ken, wrote to Today asking why there is population projection beyond the 6.5m mark. He quoted Hongkong projecting a population of 8.89m in 2039 from its present 7m. Let me venture a few guesses. One, the 6.5m is our target and we will not go further than that. So there is no need to talk about anything more than that. Two, our planners forgot to plan further, or they are still planning and have yet to come out with a new figure. Or any number bigger than this will scare the daylight out of the people? Should we stop at 6.5m or can we go beyond 6.5m? Stopping at 6.5m is a disaster as our economic growth depends on population growth. Without population growth there will be no economic growth as our productivity growth is negligible. The special jab from the two IRs will also be over by then. We will go into a steep recession once our population stops growing. On a more realistic thought, I think our planners are not sleeping and 6.5m is not the target. Just project on a continuous growth of 5% per annum and that would likely be the way to go forward. This could simply increase the population by 50% in 10 years or thereabout. Isn’t it frightening? Maybe it is so frightening that no one wants to talk about it. Would anyone want to tell us what will be the future? A population projection is the easiest thing to do unlike projecting demands for housing, and the numbers must be there. No? Please tell us, please.

27 comments:

Wally Buffet said...

This 6.5 million population target (by when?) is a "planning parameter" as pronounced by shorty. Whatever that means, the fact still remains that they have the intention to jack the present 5.08 million to the "planning parameter" in the immediate future.

Today, one in three persons you meet on the road is a foreign trash. I feel like an alien in my own country. This must be the weirdest country in the world where the foreigners will outnumber the native population in as short a time as 10 years.

Making them instant citizens will never make them a Singaporean. If only those numb skulls get this truism into their stupid brains drenched in economic stupor.

Now, I understand why the MRT lines in this tiny speck of a city is so hapzardly built. We have all kinds of lines, the NE line, the EW line, the round city line etc. At the rate we are digging to welcome these foreign trash, the whole island may just sink into the alluvial clay and then we'll be laughing all the way to heaven. No need for further population planning.

For many years, we have been using Malaysian labour but not giving out PR or citizenship as if it's some promotion in a shopping mall. That was the right thing to do. Even when we gave it out, we did so only in extenuating circumstances and when the applicant deserved it. Now, we just "grab" the PRC and Indian lowlifes like our country depends on them for survival. Why they do it is anyone's guess but your guess might be similar to mine.

I have relatives who sold their HDB apartments. Without exception, the five of them sold it to PRC or Indian PRs or "newly minted" citizens and they themselves downgraded to smaller apartments for living expenses because some of them lost their jobs to these very same newcomers.

The situation is not only dire, it is downright dangerous!

Anonymous said...

Singapore is what 42 km by 30 odd km ?

Hong Kong ? But need to bear in mind Hong has a hinterland...the new territorities...on mainland china...it is hong kong island itself that is packed...and not to forget hongkies are allowed to have 2 pass ports and can still be a citizen of another country...

The forumer who mentioned why not beyond 6.5 million for singapore doesn't understand what he is talking about or show how shallow is his intellect...how much portable "drinkable" water can feed a singaporean population of 6.5 million ppl for xx number of days...in the event food supplies are "cut off"...how many xx number of days can the food stuffs last...sure malaysia and indonesia are next door...but how much can they "spare" or "up the prices" of the food stuffs...

I give up...these so called "intellectuals" of singapore has proven again and again they are not only just so much "paper" intellectuals but shown how much their "wisdom" is really worth!

Worst than dirt!!

Matilah_Singapura said...
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Matilah_Singapura said...
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Wally Buffet said...

Anon.

Now you know why property prices are so high.

Cramping 6.5 million in an area 42X30 km, why even a schoolboy understands property investment is the way to go. No wonder these foreigners are buying up all the properties in sight, including those supposedly built for native Singaporeans.

In the case of Hong Kong, much of the New Territories is still undeveloped. They could easily be a mega city supporting a 10 million population with reclamation joining the hundreds of islands dotted around the main Hong Kong island. And China being their Ah Kong would not raise a ruckus unlike our neighbours who will either wage war or bring the matter to the International Court of Justice to have a long drawn out legal battle.

The population of Hong Kong is almost homogeneous. Even with so much tourists around, you hardly feel suffocated by the presence of foreign trash unlike here in this little dot. Now, some of my grandchildren are speaking Mandarin with a North East China accent because lots of their school mates were originally from there!

We're focked.

Wally Buffet said...

Matilah,

In part, I agree with you but what I find unacceptable are:

1. The propensity of this administration to bring in "trash" as opposed to real talent.

2. The rate of immigration is too rush giving the general native population a feeling that the flood gates are opened for a specific and less than honourable purpose.

Anonymous said...

Let's be practical ok?
If there are 10 million people in Singapore, it will mean that there are more workers working for the country.
It also mean that are more business for everyone in whatever trades as consumption will rise in tandem with population growth.
So, what so bad about population increase ?
Singaporeans must understand that the leadership is doing their very bester to improve the quality of life for every Singaporean.
See ? Everyone in Sin stands to gain from more population
When everything becomes precious, they rise in values.
And when values increased, You become richer logically, right ?

Matilah_Singapura said...

Fortunately you guys are receiving email alerts, because this post is apt to disappear like the rest. :P

wally & redbean:

It's time for me to move back to The Hotel soon! Aust is sinking deep into the shitter -- which I find fantastic cos' there'll be lost of cheap property and stocks in around (my prediction) 2 years.

Wally: beware of a possible bubble in the AUD ;-)

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Oops, I thought you got some of your earlier posts thru and had deleted my mail alerts.

Looks like your system is back in order. Let us know when you are in the hotel. We can have kopi with some guys here.

Wally Buffet said...

Matilah,

Thanks for the warning.

I've already got rid of the AUD. Anything after the rate I got rid of it is utterly unsustainable.

Please meet with us as suggested by redbean.

The drinks are on me to celebrate the birth of my granddaughter and taking profit on the AUD.

Hehe.

Anonymous said...

Let's see what they say after the election, because this is an election issue.

Just like the CPF minimum sum and medisave, they are not going to tell you what is the limit that they can go up to.

Giving away too much, too high a figure, too far ahead, will elicit lots of skeptical reaction that is not good for them when election is so near.

Further more, there are lots of smart people, Buffets, Beans and all, who will read between the lines and go for the kill in the property market.

Matilah_Singapura said...

Guys, Thanks for the invite.

Next months will be in and out of KL, actually. Might stop by The Hotel, but only for a short stopover -- no more than a few days. My Bumi masters beckon at the moment :-)

I will however be rocking out at Ampang and Starhill.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

A stopover, not more than a few days. Now that is tough for drinking kopi. Drinking kopi needs several days: )

I finish my cuppa in 10 mins.

Matilah_Singapura said...

Yes, it is a bit rushed. Kopi tiam philosophy should be savored.

However mid year Jun-July I should be fully relocated in The Hotel. Have to wait for a lease to expire after which I kick out the foreign tenants :-)

Damn. I haven't been to Orchard Towers for nearly 4 years. Imagine that :-)

Wally Buffet said...

Orchard Towers is for the birds and passé.

Let uncle Buffet bring you to see those that are

Closer than you think.

Lovelier than you dream.

Hehe.

Matilah_Singapura said...

OT passe? Oh my, I am out of touch.

I would be delighted to be 'advised' by a connoisseur of feminine sensuality. I think the idea of uncles and young chix is rocking, and in Asia its even more accepted than the west.

My favourite meat is kangaroo -- it's very tasty and it's what I've been eating for the last 3 years or so. I can feel my biology has changed.

Wally Buffet said...

It's not only rocking, it's even fashionable to go out with an uncle because that's where the mullah is.

Youth and money, now that's a lethally explosive combination especially when the uncle is also a stud.

I took kangaroo meat in Perth. Don't like it. Too chewy and tough. Crocodile meat is much better.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Now you people are talking. Kangaroo meat? Isn't it tough: )

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Ya thought so. Leave that to Matilah. Got to run. Talk to you tomorrow.

Matilah_Singapura said...
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Matilah_Singapura said...

Kangaroo meat is tough if it isn't cooked properly. It is one of the best gourmet meats you find anywhere, but unless you know what you're doing, you'll screw it up.

I like making rendang from it. Damn sedap.
=========

I don't know about the "rich uncle young girl" thing. These days it is not hard to find very rich young men -- below 25.

But I'm not complaining. I anticipate being a grand uncle (twice!) this year myself. I chat with my nieces's cheeky-flirty friends, and my kotek sings "mari kita".

So bring it on. Uncle Satay Kuat will make your toes curl, baby. "Cradle snatcher" be damned!

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

If our addiction to population growth as the only means to economic growth, then all the European countries will be doomed.

Oh, China will be the first to be doomed since its population is shrinking with the curb on babies.

Matilah_Singapura said...

Australia pop 22mill, Economy: 1.2 trillion.

Spain pop: 45 mil, Economy 1.3 trillion

No, economic growth does not depend on population growth, although you can do it that way.

The only way to grow economies with sustainability and solidity -- tried and true over thousands of years: save and invest (as opposed to "borrow and spend")

Malaysian said...

Ha ha ha, this means your days are numbered Singaporeans...This is a simple math my dear poor neighbour..Your size is 704 Sq kms which means if i were to give 1000 sq ft to each Singapore nut, there can only be 7,577,792.933 people living in Singapore at the present size. That's talking about minimum required space not including the roads and buildings...Of course you can build your city vertically to make up more space but how long is it going to help you? Within the next 100 years Singapore will have to beg for Malaysia's mercy to rejoin back otherwise sink with your population. This is the Hobson's choice you have...Sorry my dear...Anyway you are most welcome..

Matilah_Singapura said...

Singapore "beg" Malaysia?

Dude, seriously. Your cuntree (which I do occasionally enjoy) is run by the corrupt inbreds of Ummm...No! and while you still have some very wealthy people, a significant number of your people still shit into holes in the ground.

...plus there is a distinct possibility that you'll go by the way of Sharia Law.

Got boleh?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Malaysian, welcome to the blog.

Singapore rejoining Malaysian can be a good thing. But first hurdle is the exchange rate. Unless ringgit is at par to S$, Malaysia would not accept Sinkie lah. Sinkies will buy up everything there then there will be cries to get Sinkies out.

Anonymous said...

To "Anonymous" who said economic growth depend on population, being practical is knowing the limits of your resources and working with it. 10million? Whats the point of all that economic growth if it deteriorates your living standards? Economic growth by increasing population is rubbish. I can increase population by 5% and economy only improve 3 percent, means overall each person is worst off, so whats the point? And furthermore, not just Singapore, but the whole planet has finite resources. You think we got enough energy, space, human-friendly-climate if humans grow infinitely? Humans depend on the environment to survive, whether you like it or not. Bad environment means poorer food production and starvation. Read up on how previous civilisations got destroyed by environmental ruin. People never learn

-Not the same Anonymous