Demographic growth determines the new economic powers
According to Dr Helen Qiao, the economist from Goldman Sach, China's rapid economic growth will peak by the end of this decade and subsequently decline. Her prediction is based on the dependency formula which shows the relationship between the number of dependents and that of the working population. China's one child policy will reduce this ratio and thus works towards its decline. Japan is facing the same problem and so are the old European countries. Countries that have low dependency ratio will go on a decline and vice versa, countries with a high dependency ratio, ie, more working populations than dependent population will do well. Extrapolating this relationship we can see the new emerging powers of the 21 Century. India will overtake China as it does not have a population control law to limit reproduction. Other countries that will also rise to become economic powers will be Indonesia, Malaysia and many African countries where population growth is nothing short of phenomenal. The higher the birth rate, the higher the potential for growth and sustainability. Singapore will also decline in double quick time as we are not reproducing ourselves fast enough. The more proactive Singaporeans should make plans to migrate to the higher growth countries quickly before the decline sets in. The first sector to be hit will be properties as there will be lesser new population to purchase properties, unless we keep importing more foreign talents.