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2/26/2010
Demographic growth determines the new economic powers
According to Dr Helen Qiao, the economist from Goldman Sach, China's rapid economic growth will peak by the end of this decade and subsequently decline. Her prediction is based on the dependency formula which shows the relationship between the number of dependents and that of the working population. China's one child policy will reduce this ratio and thus works towards its decline. Japan is facing the same problem and so are the old European countries.
Countries that have low dependency ratio will go on a decline and vice versa, countries with a high dependency ratio, ie, more working populations than dependent population will do well. Extrapolating this relationship we can see the new emerging powers of the 21 Century. India will overtake China as it does not have a population control law to limit reproduction. Other countries that will also rise to become economic powers will be Indonesia, Malaysia and many African countries where population growth is nothing short of phenomenal. The higher the birth rate, the higher the potential for growth and sustainability.
Singapore will also decline in double quick time as we are not reproducing ourselves fast enough. The more proactive Singaporeans should make plans to migrate to the higher growth countries quickly before the decline sets in. The first sector to be hit will be properties as there will be lesser new population to purchase properties, unless we keep importing more foreign talents.
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12 comments:
Redbean, as a seasoned professional, you should not read too much into such predictions. IMHO, most are hogwash and should be read just for a laugh.
By her reckoning, the US should be a third world nation by now. And so should Japan and the Euro zone. Yet, with capital accumulated, Japan and some European countries are dictating economic growth with investment capital which they acquired when they were manufacturing powers. What is really important is a country's total population critical mass. China will survive her doomsday prediction. It is a universe unto itself. It can very well shut its borders and still survive from internally generated economic dynamics. To hell with the world.
To compare China's decline with the ascendancy of India is to say the least imbecilic. China now supposedly under communist rule should have dismantled the political model ages ago but it chose not to because it understands that a tight political grip on the population is the control it needs to generate and fuel further economic growth. India, still a feudal system is so disorganized and wishy washy that it will take many decades before the politicians get to have a grip on the populace. Though under communist rule, China is more capitalist than many supposedly capitalist countries. There is no stopping this behemoth from being the number one super power twenty years from now.
Malaysia an economic power? Hello bang, 'nuff said so I better shut my mouth because nothing good is going to come out of it.
As for Singapore, I predict that in twenty years time, we will go back to being a fishing village. All Singlish speaking true blue Singaporeans would have emigrated. All supposedly talented foreign talents would have springboarded to the richer western economies. What's left are the foreign workers enjoying all the infrastructures they helped built and rightly so. God is fair.
Hehe. LMAO.
Wally, you never heard of single factor analysis?
I also done a survey. I found that all those who died ate rice. My conclusion, eating rice will cause death.
If only things are so simplistic....
All those "analysis" are cooked up by the crooks and snake oil peddlars in their ill gotten plushy offices high up over the New York skyline.
Trust only your nose to sniff out opportunities and pitfalls.
Singapore will become a fishing village. I love fishing villages. Life will be slow and leisurely. That will be paradise.
The reason for SIngapore's decline is directly related to the amount of central control the dominant political party influences everything.
When 60% of the GDP is "created" by the GLC's, the seeds of big problems and likelihood of catastrophic failure has already germinated and taken root.
Aging populations are no problem. Not everyone dies all the time, there will always be people being born or immigrating to the territory. With the groth of trans-human technologies, life expectancy will increase even further. And then there is the rapid development of robotics.
All these emergent systems will ensure that even small nations -- as long as they are rotted in science, engineering and tech -- will have vibrant, sustainable economies...
...unless the politicians fuck it up.
China survived for thousands of yrs before America was discovered and the present conditions favour its ascendancy. Other than USA, UK, Japan, Taiwan and Tibet, China has no problem managing its friendship with the rest of the world.
I think the key is securing and managing their energy needs for 1.3Bil people.
Robotic growth determines the end of mankind.
The rate resources are exploited, ever faster over the past few decades, how long do you think the world will last? Especially so without oil.
Nuclear energy? Where are they going to dump all the nuclear waste if every country turns to nuclear energy when oil is exhausted? In landfills? In the sea? Of course, they will tell you it is very safe to dump in such places. How can they know 50 years down the road?
Something happened a long, long time ago. People who built Angkor Wat, The Inca Temples, The Pyramids, they just disappeared overnight. Those were highly skilled, intelligent people, whose masterpieces, modern science and engineering still could not find an explanation as to how they could do it, without modern machinery.
You are right. Over consumption and production of unnecessary goods, wastages, discarding good and working items and pulling down good buildings to rebuild, etc are eating up all the limited resources rapidly. And they are asking people not to waste water and waste paper, saving of plastic bags. Fuck heads.
The dumping of nuclear waste in the sea could be the reason why whales are beaching. Their sensory organs could be hit by the radioactive fallouts of nuclear waste in the sea.
I think you make many false assumptions about nuclear energy. France for example has had nice cheap clean nuclear energy for nearly 40 years now without A SINGLE accident.
There are ways of disposing of nuclear waste safely. No one "dumps it in the sea" and anyone who does so is likely to be caught. Don't forget we have imaging satellites now which immediately send pictures of any terrestial activity.
Transhumanism is ineviatable, and so is the emergence of robot conciousness, along with other technologies like quantum computing and nanotech. Even my small-time kampong Perth is involved in experiments with "conciousness" involving biological neurons and machine.
We might be the lst few generations alive to experience what it is to be "fully biologally and existentially human". If you have kids chances are they will have lifespans of over 150 years and their kids will essentially be "immortal" excepting the fact that they could be killed by massive trauma.
One country that has picked up and leads the world in consumer robotics is Japan. One reason is because of their aging population.
Human problems require human solutions. That is how the species has managed to perpetuate itself.
Throughout the ages there have been many nay-sayers -- occasionally myself included. Yet despite all the bullshit, violence and human suffering, we as a species have still made it this far to enjoy facebook, twitter, on-line porn, sms, cheap airfares and cafe food.
They may have banned dumping in the sea today. But the earlier dumping by all the nuclear states are still there, still radio active. The US, USSR, UK, France all have dumped into the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, in the Baltic Sea, Sea of Japan and the English Channel.
I shall plagiarise the conventional wisdom that was used by a once wise man in SIN.
The lesser the population, the more each will have of the space and resources of his domicile. Unfortunately, due to the great foresight of our SIN Leadership, Wally's prediction is likely to materialize in the not too distant future.
Don't count on that. Singaporeans may die or emigrated, the viability of this little rock is paramount. We can die or be sacrificed, this little city must go on and live forever.
See the diff? a rock more impt than the people, or should be vice versa?
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